Suggestion: Cloudy Moon Waxy Wayfinder at 343.57–367.27 keys

Price Suggestion

~280 keys

moon

23 votes up

0 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Sun, 07 Apr 13 18:16:08 +0000 by A Distinctive Lack of Vincent.

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Comments

Last suggestion was 3 months ago.

A recent suggestion was made by Transendence. He sold his to Borris. http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/218753

To my knowledge, it was sold for the following items:

Orbiting Fire Executioner: 5.8 - 6.8 buds

Eerie Orbiting Fire Gentlemen's Gatsby: 2.3 - 3 buds

Bubbling Defiant Spartan (Gold): 1 - 1.2 buds

Nuts n' Bolts Soldier Stash: 1 - 1.3 buds

Vivid Plasma Scotch Bonnet: 1.3 - 1.7 buds

Bubbling Private Eye: 1.1 - 1.5 buds

Nuts n' Bolts Villain's Veil: 1.7 - 2.1 buds

Note on the Villain's Veil: The Villain was sold along with the other Unusuals to Transcendence in the trade. However, it was traded quickly for a Smoking Prussian Pickelhaube (1 - 1.2 buds) + 1 bud + 5 keys. This was to Not_Duck. http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/6600 This averages around 2.1 buds. Since this was a quick sale, this will be counted in both the low end and the high end.

Total Low End (No Unusual overpay factored in yet.): 14.6 buds

Total High End (No Unusual overpay factored in yet.): 17.6 buds

Low End with overpay: 13.7 buds (Roughly 94% of price counted.)

High End with overpay: ~16.3 buds (Roughly 92% of price counted.)

Narrowing the range to 14.5 - 15.5. (0.8 added from low, subtracted off high.)

Other Offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6787116

V. Parasite + 4 pure (Roughly a 12 - 14 bud offer now, but when the offer was given, the price of the Parasite was 12 - 15 buds. http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5124cde34bd7b82a22000008 The offer was around 16 - 19 buds back then.)

Secret to Everybody Honcho's Headgear (No price set. I'm estimating around 16+ buds.) This estimation is from offers that were from previous trades by this guy: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9817253.

Stormy 13th Hour Surgeon's Stahlhelm (9.8-10.8 buds) + Stormy 13th Hour Private Eye (4.3-5 buds). (Roughly 14.1 - 15.8 buds in Unusuals.)

Went through a lot of work to find all this and type stuff. Hopefully it helps. Tell me what you think, I'll do all I can. Conclusively, we need to update the price of this, and Transcendence's was a little off.

Fix yo colour coding, other then that, looks pretty good.

Formatting disaster, I'm trying to fix as soon as possible. I messed up and copied the wrong version from notepad. :(

Hmm. I am very familiar with this as someone offered it on one of my trades. Here is what it was last sold for:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9372204 - all three of them (medal was worth 15-15.5 at the time, so the total would have been 17.5-18 in items/unusuals at the time)

I also made an offer of about 16.5-17 in unusuals in steam chat to zenzile - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9248383 (beams fruitshoot + planets brainiac + planets veil + smoking hoodie) and I added a few keys in steam chat

This was a legitimate offer that I made to him

16.5 is within the range if you factor in Unusual overpay.

I'll look into the first link, but it's who just sold it, and his selling is the reason for this new range.

Yup yup. I agree it should go down, but I think I would advocate more for a range of 14.5-16.5. I would prefer a wider range in the absence of pure offers due to the uncertainty in valuing unusuals / rare vintages.

Lets see.

The 3 of them were sold 2 weeks ago.

You were right; duped medals were at 15 - 15.5 buds 2 weeks ago. However, that was only because the price was fairly unupdated.

I'd like to stick to my range, not because I'm stubborn, but because trades like this: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9505361 were up two weeks ago. They have B/Os of 12 buds and are still unsold, which shows that two weeks ago, medals were already going unsold for 12 buds, the price was just unupdated.

As long showed in his most recent medal update, this one has been unsold at 14 buds for 2 months:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8031334

Factor in item overpay with the fact that medals were, lets say, around 13 buds at the time, even though the prices on BP.TF weren't updated. Then you get stuck in my current range. :3

Still, I just prefer a wider range when there is so much variability on this one. Thats a lot of suppositions we are having to make to get to your range.

So I would say high end should be about 16-16.5 given these two trades/offers.

I had a point to this...but then I lost it, so I'm just going to add random numbers and hope someone can derive the conclusion I'm trying to make:

borris's backpack: http://backpack.tf/id/borris_borris

Value on April 5: $689.40

Value on April 6: $715.94

Difference between backpack values: $26.54

Median price of this suggestion: $598.55

Median price of old suggestion: $647.99

Difference between medians: $49.44

Difference between median and backpack value: $22.90

I think I'm trying to get at you possibly lowering the price by too much, but I'm not sure...I swear I had a point I was trying to make.

Andy told me that Unusual overpay would be 80 - 90% in this case since there were lots of unusuals. I'm not blaming Andy, but I tried to factor in as little as possible while still making it fair. Considering 90% would be overpay, Borris sold ~13 buds in Unusuals for this Waxy, directly counting the Backpack.tf prices. However, with the quick trade for the Prussian, I counted the Veil as 2.1 buds, and factored in less of the overpay Andy suggested. I feel like less of a drop would be too little. Considering the stats you gave me, the $22.90 difference would be ~18 keys @ $1.30 each. That's 0.7 buds, which is close to the overpay I factored in. I'm not sure what to make, as there's no real argument I can do against this. Also, I'm not good with overpay :3

By the way, I mean 80 - 90% of the original price, so basically Unusual overpay taken off. Not 80 - 90% needed to be added from the total :P

So I think unusual overpay of 80-90% is reasonable for lower value unusuals (<10 buds). But there are so few people who carry around more than 10 pure buds AND who have an interest in a particular hat, that it really is unfair to do a pure 10% reduction and take 2 buds off the value because it was an unusual trade. The market for these high end unusuals is tough as it is. And shrinking its value this way just makes it that much harder.

When I calculate overpay for unusuals >10 buds, I prefer to just do a ~1 buds deduction for unusuals 10-20 buds in value and ~2 buds deduction for 20-30 buds unusuals, as arbitrary as that is. 5% instead of 10%, much less 20%.

I put 94% of the original value on purpose, because I thought 80 and 90% were both too low. Basically, I'm only taking off what would be work and possible profit lost from the buyer. (Close to 93/94%.)

I'm not sure what I can do to convince you to agree with me, so if this gets closed, I may make the range larger. We can always do that after this gets accepted, though :D

Also, I would have to reformat, which took ~20 minutes. :(

Haha... I didn't realize that. You have my upvote. Especially since Transcendence seemed to dump it for pretty cheap.

And you are totally right about valuing the vintage medal at ~13 even though it was 15 at the time. It's duped and that's what its value is.