The other suggestion was right, but the suggester was annoying, so I didn't feel like helping him: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5160db23ba2536b277000000

#1:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8383363 Night of Flu sold to Zelo for unknown amount of items. Items I could trace can be found here: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9141320[/url], most likely more items were added besides just these, but I value these at about ~2.8-3 buds worth of items. Night Flu stated a couple times in the comments (hidden ZyG|Demon's comment).

The sale most likely dates back to about 4 weeks ago based on the time when Zelo's trade was closed. Indeed based on his backpack.tf backpack, Zelo's backpack took a dip from $205.16 to $182.49 in value between March 6th and March 8th. That drop of $22.67 is equal to roughly 15 keys (based on backpack.tf treating a key as $1.53) or between ~0.5-0.6 buds. Considering the item overpay that took place it would more closely be between ~0.3-0.4 buds decrease. Since the current mean price of the El Jefe is 2.7 buds, Zelo effectively paid 0.3-0.4 buds more than that making the price 3-3.1 buds.

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#2:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9243580

Last comment, Poppy Bro Jr. offered 3 buds then upped his offer to 3 buds and a B.M.O.C. which the owner accepted making the payment equal to roughly ~3.4 buds in pure.