Suggestion: Stormy 13th Hour Big Chief at 80.03–91.46 keys

Price Suggestion

~370 keys

13th

52 votes up

2 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Wed, 10 Apr 13 05:22:34 +0000 by An Average NTR Enjoyer.

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Comments

None on the market. Proof based on 4 sales in the last month. Seems to go consistently for 3.8-4.4 in unusuals.

3.75 in unusuals - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8756710 - lantern lid

4.2 in unusuals - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8777949 - n&b beak + stormy stahlhelm

4.3 in unusuals - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9128721 - accepted 4.3 in unusuals (knifestorm toque + bills) but ended up taking eerie honcho (4 in unusuals) - makes me think sweets were added

4.35 in unusuals - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9105367 - lantern private eye

Unclear:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9330393 - stormy tossle + sweets (black ea+something else?) - can't tell how many sweets were added

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9016096 - scammer? 2.2 pure?

Conclusion: Actually gets sold consistently for 3.8-4.4 in unusuals which I am translating to 3.5-4 in pure. Being a bit generous with the range since minor sweets could have been added on 1 or 2 of the trades.

not bad but its 1 in game , all those trades aren't important , price for it = payment of last time traded . it was here http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9330393

it went for stormy tossle + black ea + 4 keys and 2 ref

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198012365012?time=1363244400

3.3~ 3 in pure + bea~7 keys ~ 4.5 keys = 3.3 pure

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9234391 current owner was trying to sell for 4 unsold and closed his trade .

i'd set the price as flat amount 3.3 buds .

Oh, cool. Thanks :). But isn't 11.5 keys = 0.44 pure. So that would make it 3.44? Also, I disagree with the idea that it should have a flat rate based only on the last sale. If it quicksold at 2 buds (like it was by the scammer) would the price be 2 buds? No. The price should be a reliable indicator of its true value which is based on an accumulation of recent trade history. All of these are within the past month and suggest a range of 3.5-4. Your evidence suggests that 3.5 may be a tad bit high.. but thats only a 0.1 difference. Seems like ideal range should really be 3.4-4.

"So that would make it 3.44?" alright still not even 3.5

" I disagree with the idea that it should have a flat rate " is there any other one existed to take range between them ! no its just one and has one value .

"but thats only a 0.1 difference" nah its 0.5 bud difference .

personally i don't care for a key but some peoples care for 1 weapon and we all care for 0.5 bud difference specially while pricing low tier things like this .

3.5 flat could be fine but 4 nah

But if there are 5 data points, why use just 1 to base your price? The same hat has sold for 5 times in the last month. It's not like its value has suddenly shot up or down in that time. Our goal is to give buyers an idea about what this is going for. If I'm a buyer, I want more information than just a single sale. I want to know if this is a good investment and what it has sold for in the past when making my decision to buy it. And this hat has sold for 4.4 in unusuals recently enough that that should be factored into its value.

For example, I gave a single flat price here - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51632be4ba25362e41000017 - because there was only one sale to go by. I think appropriate in that situation. But here there is so much evidence. It would be remiss of us not to take advantage of that.

I agree w/ polar bear. When determining price, aberrational data means: the more data points used the better for determining price. This guide is about creating something useful for people both buying and selling, and it seems to me that there is less price movement on unusuals, and more movement towards trying to create a better holistic idea of price based on many trades. With the data available, and with posts in a reasonable amount of time, we ought to make use of as much data as possible to determine price. Having the pricing guide be just reactive, actually cheapens backpackt.tfs's usefulness when it comes to pricing unusuals. It's not like buds where there are 300+ on the market at any one time, so we need to be a little bit more exploratory in our evidence.

Nice 100% suggestion: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51632be4ba25362e41000017

Thanks :). Second one in two days: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51621a464bd7b8871300001f

Although, I apparently got a warning for one :(

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/516253254bd7b8bf3f000009

Bucket must've been high at the time.

Also, thanks for putting prices for a lot of the new halloween effects. It's kinda annoying when trading for them to not have any reference.

A bunch of voters agree, might be a bit high since it's all unusual offers, but I'll accept it