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3 month old price, so just refreshing it.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9752608
-Offered 14 keys for a Black one (low end)
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/437/5/34 ( http://imgur.com/MZPkjm6 )
-Selling a black one for 16 keys
there's 9 of these on outpost and 2 in classifieds, you can find more proof man
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9179155
-Offer of 13 keys
-Offer of black bmoc
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9524351
-wants 16 keys (unsold)
So 16 keys are unsold, but why 14? The offer wasn't accepted, called tempting or anything, just c/o'd. I see no proof for your low end yet.
People are willing to pay 13 keys (or 14 for painted) so that is the low end.
But maybe they're also willing to pay 15 keys or more. If 20 people lowball on a team captain it doesn't bring It's price down. Offers don't mean anything until accepted (unless used as proof to bring a price up). I'm still not convinced by your proof.
I wouldn't call 14 keys a lowball considering it's in the current range..