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I think the proof is good on the previous suggestion, just not the correct range.
Here's the proof that did hold from last suggestion:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9983845 - 2 selling for 5 keys. Offer of 4 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9923867 - Selling for 5 keys, offer of 4 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9989344 - Selling for 5 keys, offer of of 4 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9976912 - Selling for 5 keys, offer of 4 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9947823 - Selling for 5 keys, offer of 4 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9766715 - Selling for 5 keys, offer of 4 keys and offer of 4 keys + sweets rejected, offer of White Summer Shades
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9974864 - Selling for 5 keys, offer of 4 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9983845 - 2 Selling for 5 keys, offer of 4 keys rejected
Sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9653887 Sold for 5 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9837645 Sold for 5 keys each
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9519818 several sold for 5 keys, offers below 5 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9820162 Sold for 5 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9771617 Sold for 5 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9864875 Sold for 5 keys
Rejected offers below 5 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9611757 - 4 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9339388 - 4 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9970273 - 4 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9722026 - 4 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9756545 - 4 keys rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9677775 - Several 4 key offers rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9592142 - 4 keys 1 ref rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9939123 - 4 keys rejected
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/strange%20grenade
There are some listed at 4.5-4.75 keys.
Why not the other suggestion? Why not 5 keys flat?
There are still some unsold at 5 keys, offers do range in the 4.5-5 key range.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9970273 5 keys, offer of 4 rejected, G Buck Turners + 1 key = 4.5 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9983569 Unsold 5 keys (1 day)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9974864 Unsold 5 keys (1 day) 4 key offer
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9878990 Unsold at 4.5 keys (5 days), 4 key offers declined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3960192 Sold at 4 keys 1 ref
Too many unsold at 5 keys to make it 5 keys flat, although 5 keys is definitely attainable.
I'm editing to add more proof as I go.
current range is fine..
you can still buy at 4 and there are still sellers at 4
I couldn't find any at all a couple of weeks back.
counterproof
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9844402
selling for 5 been 6 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9835455
selling for 5 been 6 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9998348
selling for 4 keys and 1.66 and it has strange parts on it
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9993665
selling for 4 keys and 2 ref
current price range is fine
Selling for 5, that's kind of my point. There's unsold at 5 and that's why it shouldn't be 5 flat, like the other suggestion.
3rd link: Gifted.
4th link: selling for ~4.5 keys
I agree with this suggestion, but just to note, that strange grenade launcher in the 3rd link was gifted by a very famous demoman player. I'm surprised they are selling it so cheap.
What you need here is unsuccessful buyers for 4 keys.
Adding mo' proof.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9624989 Unsuccessful 3 keys 1 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9233598 Unsuccessful 3 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9965628 Unsuccessful 1:1 Festive Scatter (3 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8928958 Unsuccessful 3 keys 2 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9434329 Unsuccessful 3 keys 3 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9940062 Unsuccessful 3 keys 3 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9985182 Unsuccessful 3 keys 3 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9455049 4 keys, none in bp
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9930676 Unsuccessful for White painted V Ushanka (3.5-4 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9982737 Unsuccessful G Buck Turners + V Demo Fro (3.5 + 1.5-2 keys = 5-5.5)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9974677 Unsuccessful at 16 refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9997233 Unsuccessful at 3 keys, 2 ref, and TS Arnament Ornament (approx. 4.5-5 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9949513 None in bp, added at 4 keys 1 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9996622 G Buck Turners + key (4.5 keys), been added
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9992997 1 key + Silver Sniper w/ Headshot kills (1 + 3 keys ish = unbought at 4)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9971885 Unbought with TS Spine Skull (3-3.5 keys + paint = 4-4.5 ish keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9988922 Unbought 4 keys pure
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9963295 Unbought 4 keys 2 ref pure
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9988318 Unbought clean HHHH
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9728343 Unbought Gold Knife mk.II (3-4 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9485991 Willing buyer at 5 keys
EDIT: I'm not done yet.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9971200 S Minigun with Crit Kills, Revenges, and demomen killed (w/ SPs: about 4 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9948747 Buying at 5 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9923305 Gold Minigun mk2(4-4.25)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9915556 S Degreaser with .75 keys of SPs + S Flare + regular wep + attendant = 4 keys+
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9895724 value of 4.5-5 key offer, 2 keys of which pure
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9703129 1:1 SF Uber, looks like he was added, but no trade made.
I'm going to upvote, not because of the proof but because of the fact that a couple of weeks back I searched to try and find a grenade launcher in the current range, the lowest I could find was 4.75 (4 keys 4 ref) all others were on average around 5 keys.
Quickbuying at 4 is a piece of cake. But here are SELLERS at 4 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10004040
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9926064
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9824812
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10002895 - mass seller at 4 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9817202
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9341263
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9339443
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9330384
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9336584
And here are more below your range:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9989003 - mass seller at 4.25 - has many in stock
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9973808 - 4.25
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3960192 - 4.25
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9949513 - multiple adds for 4.25 within a day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9993665 - 4.5 with strange parts
Not gonna bother with all the successful quickbuyers at 4 keys. Too many to count. (half of these sellers at 5 bought at 4)
Some sell for 4.25 as shown on the comments. Current range seems fine.