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Reposting with the same proof. Last suggestion got closed because of rudeness.
I have mattje's permission to use his proof, he doesn't want to reopen it.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I know that last suggestion got accepted 1 day ago, but it is already inaccurate.
There are a ton of buyers at 4.44 Ref.
Try it yourself: Open a trade to sell one Key for 4.55/4.66 Ref and see how many people add you in 5 minutes.
TF2 Finance
http://tf2finance.com/keys/
Price at time of posting: 4.58 ref http://puu.sh/2yDMC
Price Average: 4.55 ref
Sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9819427 5.00 ref - sold two http://puu.sh/2y6Hx
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001990 4.66 ref - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001466 4.66 ref - sold three http://puu.sh/2y7ux
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9824157 4.66 ref - sold http://puu.sh/2y30p
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9998142 4.66 ref - sold two http://puu.sh/2y2Co
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9978172 4.66 ref - sold at least one http://puu.sh/2xvu8
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9979513 4.66 ref - sold http://puu.sh/2xwiz
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9997425 4.66 ref - sold two to "PrOmas"
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9998029 4.66 ref - sold to "ImperatorPaba"
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9995327 4.66 ref - sold three http://puu.sh/2y2Kw
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9694246 4.66 ref - sold at least one http://puu.sh/2y2NH
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9974628 4.66 ref - sold one http://puu.sh/2y3TD
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9999369 4.66 ref - sold two http://puu.sh/2y4mD
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10017462 4.66 ref - sold seven http://puu.sh/2yDfU http://puu.sh/2yDen
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9978898 4.55 ref - many adds, sold all
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9696833 4.55 ref - sold at least one http://puu.sh/2xvKr , out of stock
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9983068 4.55 ref - sold three http://puu.sh/2y2E3 , out of stock
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9842511 4.55 ref - out of stock
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9571930 4.55 ref - out of stock
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9999677 4.55 ref - sold http://puu.sh/2y4TI
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001817 4.55 ref - sold two to "Rusty Bastard!" , many adds
4.77 ref - sold 15 http://puu.sh/2ya4d http://s17.postimg.org/kr035asrz/Keys_sold_4_77_Ref.jpg
4.66 ref - sold many http://s10.postimg.org/eehho44u1/Untitled_2.jpg
4.55 ref - sold seven http://puu.sh/2ya4Z
Buyers
4.66 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001479 4.66-5 ref bought
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001747 bought
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10000470
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8899194
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9997066
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9805580
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9957229
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9718277
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9935116
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9999055
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9990173
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9990956
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001973
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9820264 only in bulk
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9920745 some metal in stock http://puu.sh/2y6Mf
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9725989
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10020710
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10006268 "Only" buying 4
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001552
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10020724 Only buying 1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10015132
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9979252 4.64 Ref for 4 Keys each
4.55 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9336470
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9952783
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9955194
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9997301
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9955364
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9996889
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9998660
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9997614
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9193424
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9609901
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9928490
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10000542
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9744610
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9998980
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001025
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9998490
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9820264
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9997363
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9927447 low stock
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001234 only buying one
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9997974 only buying one
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10019211
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9997614
4.50 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9983772
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9930051
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9975330
4.44 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9995369
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9986000
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9987610
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8369579
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9912934
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9996803
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9912224
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9933735
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9981930
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9990588
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9901492
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9756224
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9993285
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9968651
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9925599
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9981785
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9973536
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9876925
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8424607
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9997214
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9763581
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9986933
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9945213
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9998084
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9141315
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7492799
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9994391
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9937577
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9913886
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3539291
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9943369
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9964652
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9948936
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9965574
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9964438
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9673062
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9950930
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9974040
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8087505
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001905 only buying one
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9982928 only buying one
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9990189 only buying one
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9861732 not buying atm
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I made two tests in the past days. I opened two trades where I listed that I'm selling Keys for 4.55 and 4.66 Ref:
4.55 Ref:
http://puu.sh/2xwSr
One minute, 12 Views, 3 Keys
http://puu.sh/2xwWk *COUGH* Oh god
http://puu.sh/2xwZN
2 Keys
http://puu.sh/2xx3x
11 Keys
http://puu.sh/2xx5C
1 Key
http://puu.sh/2xx8v
1 Key
All adds for 4.55 Ref.
EDIT:
http://puu.sh/2xxbt
Added me after I closed the trade several minutes ago. 2 Keys
This test is already 2 days old.
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4.66 Ref:
A little experiment.
http://puu.sh/2x7sl
3 Views after a minute, one person instantly added me to buy one Key
I know that this isn't much, but it proves that you can sell Keys for 4.66 right now and that pretty fast.
Edit:
http://puu.sh/2x7Cd
6 Views after five minutes, another person willing to buy 3 Keys for my listed price of 4.66 Ref each Key.
This test is already 4 days old.
Notes:
Again, if you're going to provide counterproof quoting my proof, do not include "ok" links, please.
Why? Because some people don't even read and think that quantity = quality.
If you think that I'm wrong, find people who can buy Keys for 4.33 Ref each without alot of trouble, that would help.
If you want to provide proof for the new range, please only post successful trades. Screenshots of the tradehistory are always welcomed.
- Let me know if there are some duplicated links.
- Complaining about key prices won't help.
- Keep it serious.
- No useless posts, please.
- Do not insult anybody, I'll report any offensive post.
Cool pic made by base64: http://i.imgur.com/tpDaoCM.png
Thanks to mattje, Buddio, death procedure, coma and M1GU31 for the trade screenshots.
Just to let you know: I won't reply to any comment. I'm sick of the conversations where every comment with logical reasoning gets disliked.
Got some proof of 4.77.
http://s17.postimg.org/kr035asrz/Keys_sold_4_77_Ref.jpg
last suggestion gets closed? why?
strange admins..
"Only a retard would sell a key for 4.33" - mattje
THAT'S why the suggestion got closed.
because he used the word "retard"? wow :D
The admins are zero tolerance, I give them credit for that. Much appreciated when you have those willing to spam insults on a computer, not caring who they insult.
Yesterday was only the second time I have seen a suggestion getting a warning, the first time when Mr. Carded Key Buyer called himself Key Manipulator for a key suggestion. http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51485b244bd7b8177000000b
"Only a German would do such a stupid thing!" *Germans get offended*
You see why I closed it? (I said German because according to your profile, you are from Germany)
Key suggestions have enough hate as it is.
strange festive admins! :D
Mmmhmm. Except he was successful at 4.44.
He is buying at 4.44.....
Well I know it's not much, but I did make a trade 2 days ago buying a key for 4 ref, and was added in less than an hour http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9961953
I did, got no traders for days, so I ended up closing the trade as one of my friends who let me buy his keys at a lower price.
http://bazaar.tf/trade/182808
People were also selling keys at a lower price than me (saw one for 4.33 ref) and they got bought almost instantly, Unfortunately, I am unable to find those trades, as they have been closed.
bazaar barely gets any traffic
you should have easily been able to find that price on trade servers
You know, I'll just conform, not buy a single key more with ref, upvote for voting accuracy whoring even if I know I don't agree on the basis that buyers are stupid, sellers are greedy and TF2 trading right now is fundamentally flawed.
Maybe this will implode, some day. Maybe.
Just bought one for 4 ref. Guy said if he had anymore he'd gladly sell them to me.
http://i.imgur.com/O4hBb4x.png
People will sell them for much lower, but I guess everybody is too lazy and buys from here or Outpost where everybody highballs like crazy.
We really need to stop hiking key prices up..its killing the economy..
I've sold about 10 keys on outpost in the past 2 days for 4.66-4.77 each without much trouble. People are still paying more
raised my sell price to 4.88- sold 3 so far
More Proof:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10016091 [At 4.66]
he's buying for 4.77 lel
Says 4.66, and accepting 4.77.. Even better xD
"KEYS FOR 4.77 REF IN BULKS OF 3 KEYS"
http://puu.sh/2zbOy
http://puu.sh/2zbOm
Oh my god... i remember , when key was 2.66 ref ... And it still worth 2.66 ref , cause its still 2 €.... i don't know , why we need 4.55 for a key , what was 2.66 . And key's price isn't changed. I said , its still 2 € on shop....
Metal prices are dropping
Upvoted if people want the keys price to go down then buy your keys from the store.. when people buy thier keys from the community market it is just a trade when people buy from the store a new key is born.
I do not like this price rising thing, but you have provided enough proof for me(<3 experiment part). So UPVOTE :).
Out of curiosity, when did base64 make that pic?
Finance reporting 4.68: http://tf2finance.com/keys
scrap.tf buying at 4.44, selling at 4.66 and has 0 in stock: http://scrap.tf/keys
4.66-4.77 lowest price in Classifieds: http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/5021/6/0
Outpost filled with buyers at 4.44-4.66:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9986000 4.44 refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9504783 4.44 refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10025635 4.44 refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10025635 4.44 refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10057546 4.50 refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001009 4.55 refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10055726 4.55 refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10052590 4.66 refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10023103 4.66 refined
...and I found those buyers in just the first two pages of buyers on Outpost. There are over 40 pages of buyers.
last suggested 1 day ago please ...
It was taken down for rudeness, (probably the way he called people retards because they didnt sell for more) the price and proof still stand.
taked down ?? it was acseptet 4.33-4.55 i dont see how this is down ...
I think I may have misunderstood you. You said "last suggested" so I assumed that you meant the previous, unpassed suggestion from yesterday by mattie for the same price as now. Mattie got a new price through the system yesterday then imediatly made a new one with this new 4.44-4.66 price. That one was closed for rudeness.
i just went to the bathroom
forgot to wash my hands
these key threads are the only reason a lot of people still use this site. pure entertainment.
R u kidding. This is the most important site in trading.
if you say so. nothing i buy or sell is ever close to the prices here.
wait.... you are reposting a closed suggestion using the same proof? i see that you did a different range this time, but why would you put in the exact same proof?
*Breaking own rules*
I can see your point, but the proof was only gathered one day ago + I also added some of my own to prove the high range of 4.66 Ref.
Mattje's suggestion got closed due to rudeness, he wrote "only a retard would sell his key for 4.33 ref." in the proofsection. This is considered as an insult, he was also warned for that. http://puu.sh/2yFow | http://puu.sh/2yFpc
Only because a suggestion gets closed it doesn't mean that the proof is inaccurate.
hmmm. makes sence. i see you took out the reason that it got closed for the last time, and you made the range to what i thought it should be last suggestion with this proof. so i guess that no matter how much i like it, i should upvote untill i (or somebody else) finds some good counterproof
I am curious if in any of these trades do u see anyone offering Bills or Buds instead of ref?
I try to buy keys for 4.44 and it's almost impossible, I only get 1 key max per day.
maybe becouse alot ppl buy keys and the chanse someone to get in ur trade is small if u use tf2op
It's more like when you have someone like this: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8899194 who buys at 4.66 ref. If sellers know they can get 4.66 ref for a key, why should they sell for 4.44 ref?
Keys are never going to stop are they...., why do we raise a price, just because there are a lot of people trying to take advantage of this? i can put on keys selling for 5 ref and a lot of people buy them... I really do wonder when this key raise-ment will stop.. In about a month or 2 the key price rose at least 2 ref... OMG not suprised....
By raising the price here, people try to one-up the market price, and the cycle continues.
"there are a lot of people trying to take advantage of this". Please explain who and how. Preferable on the forums where we can discuss this: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/641-yet-another-key-price-topic-no-flame-wars-please-discussion-only/
You are a shoe my dear sir, you have no power here
jk
I can ban you.
jk
I still don't understand why some of the Alternate/Past suggestions don't appear once they've been closed. "People, seriously stop complaining without reading the proof" - "People really are stupid enough to buy keys at BS prices." I don't understand why mattje would waste so much time creating evidence when he has 0 keys in his inventory, but 100's of refined, what's the point? - to take a loss by buying keys with 100's of refined at higher prices? People "Use your brain, read the proof, and actually contribute to the suggestion instead of creating walls of text of pointless bitching."
It is reasonable to say that he may have sold his keys and that experience leads him to believe it should be higher.
#SAVEETHEEKEEYZZZZ
that got old fast
I'll save them..donate them all to me and they'll stay nice and safe in my BP :)
hey little boy want in my van, that popped into my head after readin your comment xD
does the price really need to be increased again?
yes
no
>_>***<_<
maybe so?
no. plenty of people sell for 4.33. look at my counter proof
Yes, it does.
this is me, selling keys at 4.33: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9907871
one link of counter proof fuckyeah
I don't think counts. Selling lower than the range is just quickselling. But if it was unsold and unsuccessful, then it would be counterproof.
...sorry bro
I love you
>Poor people trying to make a change
>Greedy scum forcing change
Hey, one group makes a difference,
and the other doesn't.
Guess which.
I may be poor, but I'm not rlly trying to make a change, as higher keyprices give me more profit. Since selling at 4.33 is good enough for me, I just sell them at 4.33. Now I would like to know, why is my link not counting when i provide succesful trades, while highballerlinks wich get counterproven by monuclus(if spelled right) are accepted?somethimes, I don't get this site anymore :c
The issue is that the occasional 4.33 buyer does not hold a candle to the immense swarm of traders readily willing to buy at 4.44-4.66 ref.
You talk about 'highballers' getting countered, yet the last four suggestions always had a solid number of buyer trades supporting even the top range of the price being suggested. Seller links hardly even need to be looked at anymore, the range has consistently been revolving around buyer trades.
I see. Thx for explaining.
just because people have a small backpack doesn't make them poor, I could have millions of dollars, and not pour it into tf2, or someone could have a large backpack, and cashed out.
lol, sold out
Yeah, alright... Another key suggestion
Yeah, alright... this kind of comment again which does not contribute anything to the suggestion.
Says the guy who dumped over 600 keys in the trash cause he can't trade.
I cashed out plenty without having to put in money so it work out fine for me either way :)
I believe the 4.66 buyer trades are the most relevant, so I'm noting below the ones from that section that have some problems to them.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10000470 - Has since lowered buying price to 4.55 ref, so unsure how long they were willing to buy at 4.66- ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10020915 )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8899194 - No metal available. Also selling while having only 1 key in backpack. Doubtful how much buying has ever been going on
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9718277 Same user as from this earlier listed trade ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9997066 )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9920745 - Out of metal, claims to change price frequently so its unknown if they've ever actually been buying at 4.66 while having metal in stock
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9725989 Yet another duplicate, same user as the duplicate link above
Finally, I'd go ahead and call that 4.66-5 ref one just 4.66 flat. It includes a hat and people typically don't treat items at upper range when including hats in place of metal. Not really a problem since you included it under 4.66 anyway, but might be a bit misleading.
wtf dont rise key price it is sick
Only 4.44-4.66? Bro, I've just put up 2 keys for sale at tf2outpost at 4.66 refined each and got 20+ adds. True story. Sold 1 for 4.88ref and kept the other one. Wtf..
possible to sell at 5 ref lel
NO keys are all ready to much worth
Also, regarding this, just for clarity for all reading ths suggestion.
"Try it yourself: Open a trade to sell one Key for 4.55/4.66 Ref and see how many people add you in 5 minutes."
Please do not do this if you don't intend to actually sell at least one key and appropriately close when finished. It is against outpost's rules to put up fake trades. I don't think that's what the suggester was getting at, but I wanted to be very clear on the matter.
Can't get any keys for 4.33, No luck in 4 days. Upvote.
I'm honestly excited for this
Having metal in metal is the worst thing we can do now. Sadly, but upvote.
Um.. okay... here's a thought... what if traders don't WANT to try this experiment for themselves?
Less than 300 keys were sold yesterday, and the TF2 Warehouse is almost full of keys at 14000 credits apiece. When the Warehouse can't buy keys anymore, the market crashes soon afterwords.
Last year I noticed that the only items that were being moved were Salvaged Crates, salvaged Stranges, Strange Festives, Promos, and Keys. The same thing is happening now, and with keys closing in on being priced as much as they were last year, you are going to see the market bottom out. Just remember. When keys cannot be sold to Warehouse, the bottom falls out. Going from what I saw on past experience.
Breaking my rules again..
I already said that earlier, but TF2F is only showing 1% of all legitimate keytrades. Take the volume x100 and you have the total of nearly all keytrades +/-.
This is just like government poles.
One email must mean one-million people have this opinion.
except when you sell metal to WH it will take 4.84 ref to get one key.
Key crash when WH can't buy keys anymore ? How many people even buy or sell keys from/to WH
Key cannot be crash when it is a currency that cost real money with useful use and is easy to liquidate. Earbuds can be count as currency but the reasons they are losing value are due to they being a misc(which not everybody want), hard to liquidate, and not useful.
The Warehouse is at 2483 keys out of a possible 2500 keys, so as of right now the key amount is at 99%. Since there are so few keys being cycled through on Outpost, they wind up going to Warehouse, When keys were overstocked on Warehouse, the economy grinded to a halt. Exactly like what is happening now. I saw the same exact thing happen last year, and it is happening on a much more magnified scale now.
Not everyone thinks like you, Long, so I can understand why someone like you can fail to understand that some people use the keys they bought with real life money would sell those items to Warehouse. I remember when the site had no keys in stock. Because they changed the prices for metal and keys, they are just about overstocked now. You think I'm crazy?
http://www.tf2wh.com/item.php?id=725;6;56c0b8512f9c4d03ae34b29119c01b9f
Read it and weep.
so you think a site that is overstock with keys selling at 4.84 ref is a sign that key will crash ?
right...
I don't think it, I know it.
and you are doing the conversions quite wrong, I am afraid.
Looking at the selling rate for keys, it is 13440 credits to the refined metal's 2890. Dividing the key value of 13440 by the refined value of 2890, the figure translates to roughly 4.65.
If you are going by the buying rate of keys, let's divide the key value of 14000 by the refined value of 3250, you get 4.30.
Whilst it may be true it may be equivalent to that if i were to sell refined for keys. it was hard to get metal into the warehouse even when the market was stable. If it is full of refined now, and almost full of keys when it was not a month ago, it is a pretty telling sign.
The warehouse only tracks projected value of keys based on the buying prices for items, so right now the Warehouse is nearly full at 2400+ keys at a projected Warehouse value of 4.31... ACCORDING TO THIS SITE.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10024891 selling for 4.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10023962 selling for 4.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10023417 selling for 4.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10022852 selling for 4.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10022740 seling for 4.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10022468 selling for 2 tod tickets ~4.22
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10021779 selling for 4.33
so yes, instead of bitching, i actually provided counter proof this time
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10021673 selling for 4.33 in items
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10020010 selling 3 for 4.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10018590 selling 8 for 4.33
In order of all of your links:
Sold within minutes
Sold within minutes
Sold within minutes
Sold within minutes
Sold within minutes
Sold within minutes
Not online
Sold within minutes
Sold within minutes
Not online
Faulty counter-proof.
Actually, it IS counter-proof. It shows how someone is willing to sell for 4.33 ref and getting bites within a couple minutes. Most proof for this new price range is sitting there for even more time than these trades. Tell me how exactly it isn't valid counter-proof. Just because someone disproves you WITH actual links does not mean that it is invalid. Being sold is the polar OPPOSITE of still selling. Most people who support the prices rising say that you should provide actual LINKS of counter-proof, and here this guy has done it, and you shrug it off and say it's not valid. This has gotten out of control....
All of the provided selling links by the suggester are sold out or have risen their prices. The only standing trades are the BUYER trades, all buying in the range of 4.44-4.66.
Haven't people added them and bought the keys from them, or am I mistaken?
I think we're on different trains of thought. Sorry, I don't follow what you're asking
Only one has relisted and set their price up because he most likely sees that this suggestion has gone up and know that this will get accepted. The others are valid and have no proof against them. The suggestor has also put up more links of valid proof that are quite good, and have no proof against them as well.
It's invalid because they've sold out within minutes of being up. If they went unsold for a few hours and they are online and constantly bumping, it would be more valid because it shows more people are not as willing to pay a lower price for a key. While it may show people are willing to sell for the lower end of the range, any sellers selling at the lower end get taken up within minutes.
That doesn't happen with any other item most of the time.
The fact that those trades are taken near-instantly and there are buyers that are willing to pay more than the currently reflected price shows the counter-proof provided isn't strong enough to disprove this suggestion.
They pay more knowing that the next day there will be yet another price suggestion raising the price over the current one, thus selling for more profit. It is the rinse and repeat cycle, if you haven't heard of it yet...
I think it's more like buyers are over-speculating - they believe the price of keys will go up soon, so they preemptively act and buy for higher than the currently reflected price, causing the price to go up. So you see, it's a self-inflicted wound. Buyers are at just as much fault as sellers are.
I agree, but it still goes according to the rinse and repeat cycle, just they are being to preemptive as you said.
However, do not blame bp.tf for this. Blame the buyers for over-speculating and causing fear in their own minds and sellers for taking advantage of this fear.
Also, do you have any idea why my comments were disliked when all I was doing was trying to provide facts and stating my opinion on the cycle?
The Greater Fool Theory? Actually, considering the recent drop in bud prices and this trend of buyers buying at the high end, I can see this being likely true.
so?
Now we can't make counter proof without it being "faulty" of course it went fast, but there are WILLING sellers
If a group of people sell keys for 3 ref, should 3 ref be in the range, too, because they are willing sellers, regardless of how fast they sell?
If it's enough people, and the others on unnsecful at selling higher, sure.
But this is about a more realistice goal, keeping a price in the range, which this proof has shown, is still possible to buy at.
Doesn't count as counter-proof because sold out.
Lol but the links with 4.66 count??? this suggestions make me laugh about the market..
I agree, people who want the key price risen are completely blind to the fact that the proof being provided for THEIR suggestions are the exact same thing, but instead the counter-proof trades are being sold out fast and efficiently.
If it's sold out quickly, that means it's the cheapest on the market.
But as you see, people are willing to sell AND spend 4.33 ref on them. Links provided in these suggestions are ones that sit for awhile before any bites are taken. Half of the trades on OP are selling for outrageous prices, so someone looking for a key to buy has no choice but to buy from them.
Obviously they're willing to buy it when it's the cheapest.
They may be the cheapest on OP, but it still shows how some sellers are WILLING to sell them. Yea, it might not be the most counter-proof ever, but proof is proof, and when you are asking for it, and someone delivers, you shrug it off like it's not. We can all agree on at least one thing, and that is that all people who are buying on Outpost are doing it because they know another suggestion will be posted, and most likely get accepted, and then sell for profit the very next day. Since this is the reason that people are raising the price, it shouldn't be. A stable price people barter around is what it has and should always be, no matter what way you look at it, and raising the price every other day is surely not stable...
@BiteSize Nobody will ever understand...
By that logic, ill open up a trade selling keys for 2 refs, it doesnt make keys 2 refs does it?
IF it was UNSOLD for a few hours it means people are unwilling to by at 2 refs (too high), but because it was traded nearly instantly, means the price was pretty damn cheap and so it was bought...
If they are sold out at a cheap price, it would mean it's too cheap. If they re sold out at a high price, it would mean it's too cheap or, preferably, that they get sold at that high price.
but it shows people are still willing to sell at 4.33
Those have all sold within the second. I remember putting a trade up at 4.33 2 days ago and I literally got 15 adds within a minute!
Upvoted because it will be accepted either way!
your stupid. lol. think for yourself.
You're*. Oh the irony!
oh yes, people always pay attention to correct wording and punctuations on the internet
"Yes I know the prices of virtual items but I don't know the difference between you're and your" #FirstWorldProblems
Indeed, even when counter is proven. It gets accepted. Even if voting is negative, it's accepted. This site is getting close to spreadsheet...
At least spreadsheet didn't mess with key pricing-I'd rather one person benefit the all the rich players benefit . Our votes are empty and void,
Alot voters are against the accurate reporting of Keyprices.
Ergo they downvote. They don't want it, the price is already high enough in their opinion.
Every suggestion which passed with a 100++ negative score actually got alot of proof which was supporting the range they suggested for.
The mods needn't to go by scores if the voters base their vote on their own opinion.
If a suggestion with great proof gets closed, just because it has a negative score, most of the downvoters got what they wanted - Not an increase in price.
I have to give you. It would indeed not go right if mods had to act according to votings only, but oculus gave a lot of counterproof, and still it was accepted. Did I miss something back then? I rlly didn't understand and was completely confused
Oculus did not provide counter-proof. What he did was state why he believed the proof provided was faulty.
Actually, he didn't state why he believed it was faulty, he fact checked the proof. He did in-depth research on each of the links/"proof" provided and displayed them in the comments. He disproved almost every one of them, not based on his opinions. If you looked into the proof in these key suggestions carefully, you see that he is right and that most proof provided IS faulty or already in the current range. You can't base proof off of what people copy/paste into the chat section and base it off of how many links of "proof" you see, you actually have to look into the suggestion and dissect it, which is exactly what ocolus does. Yes, he didn't provide actual links to counter-proof, but he still disproved most of the links, which counts as the same thing. By disproving a link, you have to scratch that proof off, and hope the other links were actually helping the suggestion.
Because ocolus never technically provided any counteproof. He never showed us that it's still possible to buy at the current low end bp.tf price. He just looked at the new items in somebody's BP and that's it.
This technice to analyze the proof is not good, because the traders could have traded the new items away or they were ingame when they did the trade. He called the quantity of trades which were buying at the high end bp.tf price "IN THE CURRENT RANGE". He doesn't care if a majority buys at a high price as long as this price is included in the current range.
Now we have screenshots of people who were even successful at 5 Ref, he can't "disprove" that.
Btw. I will stop posting from now on. I broke my rule 4 times now, this won't happen in the future.
:okay: you sure no A LOT about this, dude.
It's becasue most if not all counterproofs are invalid. Most of the 4.33 refs trades are bought instantly, and you have buyers (alot) at 4.44, which shows a obvs increase is in order
So uh, it's okay that this guy has 83 keys? I don't get why the key inflation is being helped on by people holding on to keys
He is an unusual trader, he owns 51 unusuals. I think that Keys are the main currency for him. On outpost he sell's everything mostly for promos or Keys. Since he hasn't bought a ton of Keys for 4.44 Ref or lower, he isn't getting any profit.
Saying that somebody shouldn't make a suggestion for an item which he owns xx times is irrelevant. This "argument" was posted many times now (other suggestions) and is useless. As I said, he won't get any profit since he isn't a keybanker.
Why don't you stop your whining
cause i didnt realize how awful this voting section has become, my bad
Please go.
1. Remove pants
2. Place hands firmly on stick
3. Pull stick
4. Completely remove stick from ass.
There. Now you can comment in ways that don't make you seem like you are in the range of 12-14.
Dude, watch your attitude. Don't push it.
I have to throw this out there because in all these key pricing posts, no one has said it.
Lets just say that the ultimate goal of the 'key manipulators' is to raise keys to some stupidly insane price. For the sake of argument, lets say 10 refined.
Ok.....then what. Their target was reached and they sell their keys for 10 refined each. WOOHOO.......now someone with 100 keys has 1000 refined.
THEN WHAT???? We all know that keys will either stay at that price or rise again (gee, go figure) and then.....they either need to buy more keys to get rid of all that metal (not likely as they would take a loss) or go on a buying spree and attempt to buy every item they possibly can with pure metal.......which by then is entirely worthless.
The bottom line is, someone needs to wrangle in these prices once and for all and LEAVE IT ALONE.
All you people upvoting aren't helping anyone, especially yourselves.
as much as i agree with you-i just wish it was that simple.
"Lets just say that the ultimate goal of the 'key manipulators' is to raise keys to some stupidly insane price."
who ?
why ?
when ?
how ?
stop with these baseless accusations
"baseless"
"base"
base 64...
CONSPIRACY
/s
What baseless accusations? Who did I accuse of anything. All I stated was the obvious. The people with a ton of keys eventually will want to utilize them. Either sell them for metal (which is what it would seem like) or use them for other purposes. Regardless, when they eventually use them, they will be forced to then buy at the new inflated price.
What is baseless in that statement?
Personally, I could care less what keys cost in metal. I buy them for the same prices in the marketplace or thru PP and any upgrading in refined prices hasn't affected that one bit.
Exactly, it's not helping anyone! you still think WE are manipulating it for personal gain? Ref is becoming worthless because you need keys for steam market, unboxing, buying high tier items.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10017359
GUYS KEYS SHOULD BE 4 REF NOW
I HAVE PROVIDED 1 TRADE OUT OF THOUSANDS TO SHOW WHY 4 REF SHOULD BE THE NEW PRICE
LIKE THIS POST IF U AGREE
1 LIKE = 1 PRAY
+rep god trader
GOD TRADER
keys are expensive now ;/ it lower economy on trading
yeah I know I'm really poor thanks to the keys going up
soon u cant trade or trading will be soooo expensive ....
I remember when for paint u just paid 1 rec ... even for gold
I CAN'T AFFORD ANYTHING ANYMORE
Don't be sarcastic, if you have friends who deal for a decent price, or just there's some nice people on a server, they can sometimes sell keys for 4 ref, like this morning, i found someone selling 5 keys 4 ref each and i took the lot. If all you do is scour outpost for keys and evidence, you end up paying 5 ref. Of course he did even say 'Well i know it's not much' so sarcastically slating him for something YOU suggested is just moronic.
NO THIS SHOULD BE THE NEW PRICE 4 REF GOGOGO
Time to grow up dude
no, it is time for key price to go to 4 ref DUDE
Fine.
Pfff, price manipulator.
NOU
Yes.. btw, I think you have your caps lock on.
I’M SORRY
Turn it off please.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
After doing nothing but residing on trade servers for the past three days, I can say that I am NEVER using outpost for key trading because people are ridiculous. Every single trade server I have been on has had people both buying and selling keys for 4.33 or lower. The people I have talked to and traded with on those servers say that they don't even use backpack for key prices in metal any more. It's sad, and I love this site otherwise, but I'm done consulting it for the price of keys in ref.
three years ago
>3 years ago
>Mannconomy Update didn't come out yet.
And 6 months ago. After that it just took off thanks to YOU GUYS.
:^)
trading was added in fall 2010
3 years ago
keys were 2.66
OK
As long as Outpost traders sell their keys for slightly more than Backpack.tf says they are worth and Backpack.tf uses Outpost trades as proof of key prices to set the price, key prices will continue to spiral upwards.
Yes sir. We have enveloped ourselves in an endless loop which won't stop until the key market crashes and burns.
Backpack.tf does not determine the market prices, It reflects them. The market is a self-sustaining / changing thing. Keys are in high demand at the moment, Therefore the price is set to increase. The price of keys will not "crash and burn". It will reach a point and stabilize. It may then drop slightly, but it will most likely never reach 2.33 ref again.
Except backpack also determines the market price. Outpost traders and traders from other sites use backpacks price plus a little bit more to set their price on keys and other high demand items. As backpack uses their price to set the market price the traders increase their price to stay ahead of backpack's price. If you really want to stabilize key prices you need to increase the trade range of keys beyond two scrap to at least a rec and then not change it unless the proof prices are more than 2 rec above or below that range.
I actually think the fact that key was supposed to have 1 scrap range is not valid anymore. Some people posted trades of sellers at 4.33. I'm sure, however, they were under market price and bought right away. But perhaps, if more of these show up, 4.33-4.66 becomes more accurate.
With the insane numbers buying for 4.44 and above, I don't think it's necessary. There are far more buyers at 4.44 alone than has provided showing people willing to sell at 4.33.
Yeah I guess you'tr right.
I like how the price already went up am few days ago, and now people are trying to raise it again. You're using Outpost as proof... that site is just plain awful. There are more people against key rising then with it, but the people who are against it are instantly shot-down by the people who are PURPOSELY trying to raise the key price. It will only keep going up due to people being greedy. Until the people on this website realize what they are doing (making the trading community increasingly worse), then the trading community shall remain scum-filled.
Now let me just watch all the greedy people who want the keys to rise give me downvotes, even though they know I'm right. I honestly don't care anymore.
you don't like outpost?
counteproof from tf2p, tf2bazaar or trade history screenshots is welcome
I've already pointed out the problem with using outpost or any other trade site trades as proof. Traders on those sites always set their price a little higher than what Backpack says the price is. This just leads to a spiral of price increases as people use those trades for proof to set prices.
Currently Unsold:
http://bazaar.tf/trade/183270 - 4.66
http://bazaar.tf/trade/186046 - 4.66
http://bazaar.tf/trade/182102 - 5
http://bazaar.tf/trade/177085 - 4.55 (I commented to buy, but didn't)
http://bazaar.tf/trade/183270 - 4.66
Sold:
http://bazaar.tf/trade/185567 - 4.33
http://bazaar.tf/trade/169985 - Many for 4.33
http://bazaar.tf/trade/175663 - Many for 4.33
http://bazaar.tf/trade/159073 - Many for 4
http://bazaar.tf/trade/153407 - 4.33
http://bazaar.tf/trade/124602 - 3.55+weapon
http://bazaar.tf/trade/126291 - 3 keys for 3.77
http://bazaar.tf/trade/108701 - 3.44
I started getting too far into the past few months, so sorry if these are that inaccurate, but it goes to show that just 3 months ago, keys were being happily sold for roughly 3.33 ref, and now look at the market...
you are proving nothing linking 2 weeks or 2 months old (and never bumped) trades
Ha!
Look at when the keys were sold, genius. the one for 3.44 refined was 2 DAYS AGO.
Trade was last bumped 2 months ago. The fellow posting in there 2 days ago is posting in a long dead trade.
I just got some proof, which is what you asked for, was it not? I wasn't particularly bothered when it was from, I just got the most recent ones. Also some grammar in there would be appreciated. Took me a while to understand what you were saying. The other trades have already been closed, and I'm not one to take random screenshots of trades. Also I was just saying how ridiculous this trading community is. It's full of idiots who just want to get more and more, and can't settle with what they're getting already. AKA, greedy scum.
What do I earn if this suggestion get accepted?
Nothing.
I'm not saying you can. Heck, none of us can, because all the people who want the keys to rise all have this "voting" forum bookmarked and add new suggestions and get all their greedy buddies to come along and instantly upvote higher suggestions and downvote lower ones.
Anyway, I don't think anyone's properly addressed these yet.
http://bazaar.tf/trade/183270 - A dead trade. if you look at the outpost trade in their steam profile http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10004405/ - It's a keybank bot, selling at 4.88
http://bazaar.tf/trade/186046 - The only link that seems to check out. At top of high range and unbumped since creation.
http://bazaar.tf/trade/182102 - Well above suggested range, entirely irrelevent
http://bazaar.tf/trade/177085 - Unbumped for a week, user no longer has keys. A dead trade.
http://bazaar.tf/trade/183270 - Same link as the first
Sold:
http://bazaar.tf/trade/185567 - Misrepresented. Asking for 4.33 + strange diamondback + 1 weapon. 4.55 + 1 weapon at absolute minimum by bp.tf price. Near the top of suggested range and above curent range, received interest from at least two different users.
The rest are a week old or older. Too old to be relevent.
The only link of use here is the single key asking for 4.66 15 hours ago. It's unbumped since creation so the availability of the trader is in question, and doesn't mean much in the face of all of the relevent 4.66 buyer links provided by the suggester.
FUCK THIS TOTAL BULLSHIT HOW MUCH DO U WANT KEYS TO BE 10000000 REF
doesn't matter how many ref it will be because by around 15+ ref per key ref ain't gonna worth anything anymore.
Metal is FREE, you turn your comp on you get metal, keys you gotta buy with real life money
http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1c89bq/h_a_keybanking_bot_with_331_ref_and_a_chance_to/ bot buying at 4.55. have 331 ref.
Looks steady now so I'll upvote.
See, I upvote *you know who you are* because like I said I don't care that it's not my key suggestion..I wanted to wait for steadyness.
I'm not some person that just bumps up key prices for no reason!
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10011637 < got adds so easily for 4.55
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10004868 < got flooded with buyers for 4.44(I was feeling generous so kept the price low)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9986274 < I let the buyers choose the price..they chose 4.55 so fast
Buying out of fear of rapidly rising prices. That's all. Not because they are comfortable with paying that much.
10 Ref for a key? I would never ever want that much metal in my BP..I could fill those 10 slots with much better items.
Already pushing the limit of 8 wasted slots(due to the ref, rec, and scrap)
Please..can we get rid of this metal..it annoys me!
If only valve let metal stack...
No one is making you keep metal
exactly...that's why whenever I have more metal then I need..I'll buy a key no matter what the price is
guess thats why I found someone sellin for 3.4ref like 20 min ago...
Keys need a stable price anyway you slice it, just as USD is in the real world. 100 cents= 1 dollar, that never changes, neither should be the amount of ref used to make up a key. If keys are to remain one of the main sources of income/payment, then they should have a stable price. People may barter around that price all they want, but it should not keep on rising because of it.
You know, counter proof is encouraged but it's always immediately shot down.
Single trades are hardly adequate it seems (unless they support the suggestion) and trades under the current BP range on Outpost are discredited for various reasons.
I'm curious as to what would actually count as decent counter proof.
The bulk of the links are buyer trades. For most items on bp.tf, buyer links are completely ignored as 'quickbuyers'. For high volume items like keys, it used to be that the highest consistent buyer price would make the low range- sellers don't need to go lower as they can just approach one of these traders at any time. Here, they're covering the whole range.
Because what's normally used strictly for the bare minimum price is now being used for the WHOLE price, the only decent counter-proof would be to show that there are issues with the majority of the buyer links- as I had done with a small handful above, that they're not actually willing to buy as stated- in which case they should also be reported for fake trades, or that they've all been swarmed with key sellers and are no longer capable of buying due to lack of metal.
I see. Thank you for the reply.
Just bought 2 for 4.55 each. http://i.imgur.com/8BgmxWG.png
the fact that the op has 83 keys may be the reason why he wants to increase the price of keys ....
Don't insult other users. If I see you doing so again I'm banning you for a week.
i wasn't insulting him i was saying that he falsly accused me of not knowing anything about keys when i sold my backpack recently and he failed to even see that i had 32 games in my bp
"you moron" counts as an insult.
and what he said doesn't? how come he hasn't received a single warning for like 10 posts of insulting
I reported his posts to the mods, they hid some of them. Others weren't that bad to give him a warning.
I could have a 1000$ backpack, and still be "poor" compared to people with a 5000$ bp, unless you are the richest we are all "poor."
good proof. amazing but true. now for the inevitable explosion in the prices of stranges.....
key prices are getting out of control, they are rising way too quickly. any chance of them dropping any time soon?
I dont have to read proof. Its insane. A refined is going to worth less and less. Why? because you are saying that refined worth nothing.
A refined is worth less because people want keys more. Probably because steam market only accepts keys. If you want to buy games, you need keys. If you want to unbox, you need keys. If you want to buy good items, you need keys.
Of course you need keys. I've never seen a new price suggestion for refined (think how much time you have to spend for 1 single refined). The point is: when we say 1 key worths more than refineds, we are shooting against ourselves, because we can craft refineds, but we cannot craft keys. Think about that.
And of course, Valve should be loving that...
If refined is in fact worth less, it would be affecting everything equally, which it's not.
Items that were priced in metal before the prices started being boosted are still comparable values for the most part, save for a few things like tags and paint.
Anything that was priced in keys before that has suddenly skyrocketed in value, which is really odd because demand for those items hasn't increased. Craft hats are still 1.33 give or take, most other hats still hover around their original prices except the ones that were listed with the value in keys.
So I'm calling bull**** on metal deflation. This is just more manipulation with some smoke and mirrors on the side so no one knows who to point the finger at.
That's the cover story.........notice how the price was more or less stable until backpack.tf took over the pricing froming spreadsheet? Just smile and wave boys, because I'll be laughing my a** off when the bubble of inflation(greed) pops.
So true man. Once backpack.tf came into play everything because really unstable. People liked it at first because it was a second opinion but now I hear so many people disliking backpack.tf because of these ridiculous price hikes. Who made these rules anyway .. the guys that run this site. Why not put up a vote system like this for the general public to vote on the rules and pricing. Not the mods or admins to this very site. It's like screaming at a deaf person.
"If" refined is in fact worth less?
Come on man... every day backpack.tf has a new price suggest for keys! and let me tell you: its always increasing the price!
This is not personal but when people upvote for increase keys price they are infering that refs worths less!
But you said something that makes me think: all that bull*** happened because some retard started to value items in keys and not in refineds.
Prices just need to drop. its gewtting to high
Let's hope it does. Valve has to do something.
Do they have to?
More idle accounts = More money in Valve's pocket
Worthless metal = More reason to buy keys with cash
Technically, they don't have to, but they probably should do something to make metal more valuable.
Goddamn.
I think it's time we all got the hell out of trading.
for you? sure
for everyone else? no
Can I buy all your stuff?
KEY PRICES
WAHT ARE YOU DOING
KEY PRICES
STAHP
Get more keys, then.
STAHP IT JUST STHAP IT XD
Really, I don't see why you're all complaining.
Just get more keys.
How is that so hard?
Many of us don't dump much money into the game. The only other way is trading, which takes some time and requires effort.
Not because we don't want to waste our money, or spend forever trying to trade up to it or anything.
You have 83 keys a bit suspicous
Suspicious of him reporting prices?
Why do you people always complain.
^ You even bother to look at proof..or do you only judge how many keys they own?
well if I start making key suggestions on an alt with no keys people obviously will upvote since they see that I have no key to benefit myself.
Didn't you already suggest on keys on an alt, or do I have that confused with another occurrence?
People are only buying at these prices quickly in fear that keys prices are going to keep rising. That's all. The rate they are increasing is without doubt going to kill this market. Of course with so many keys having the price increase would be great for you. But they are already very high.
This is the true.
It's great when I want to go on a cheap item buying spree..but I don't do it too often, doesn't affect me much.
What does that even means
Some items are less then a key...some items didn't rise as keys rose, meaning I can trade for more of them. I don't really trade for cheap items too often though.
Well the 1% only like to buy big. What about all the little people that can barely get a ref or two here and there? What now, this system is basically only catering to those with 50 idle accounts that could actually afford a key?
Get a petition sign to trade ban all those idle accounts...there will be less metal to go around :)
That would be nice. Then we could get back to a little normalcy here.
"Of course with so many keys having the price increase would be great for you"
Why? Please explain this to me.
Upvoted, Wont count to anything if it gets downvoted, I dont even buy keys and It will be fun when they crash and burn, Have fun with your keys :D
Upvote out da bootyhole
2 days after last key suggestion accepted...and now this??? what about 2 weeks later the key price would be 6 ref?? no sht sherlock
Keys will soon become $0.01, thank you long, screwed up the currency
*buying keys @ 4.55 ref
the irony
Yes, coz as i said, metal is dropping. Keys are rising.
Keys will soon become $0.01, thank you long, screwed up the currency
There are two things that are wrong with that statement.
1. Ever heard of paypal or cash trading ?
2. If I was able to control the currency I would be filthy rich right now. Too bad I don't because I just reflect on the current market.
Wow long....how many tf2 friends have u lost because of the keys? And how many enemies? Everytime u make a comment u get dislikes.
my friends don't remove me just because of silly suggestions like these.
Seems like Long only suggests items to be decreased in value. So everything down in value and keys up in value right Long?
But you are filthy rich...
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10041910 -Buying for 4.66
You do know that you've done more to screw up the economy than long has right? Why is there a suggestions to raise the price to 4.66? Cuz people like you are actually willing to pay that much. Long hasn't done anything. People like you are giving him proof that the price needs to go up, you can't blame this on anyone but yourself.
You people need to find something to do with your time. Seriously.
After buying a S. Dead Ringer from him, he asked me if he could buy my keys, offering 4.66 ref each. I said I was only gonna sell two, cause I needed abit of metal. http://i.imgur.com/P0BvhkW.png
People are really desperate.
Im not desperate to buy your keys ate 4.00 refs....
If less than 300 keys were sold on outpost yesterday, it's not about them being desparate. It is them not finding someone who will sell them under the table that the site and those supporting these ever increasing key prices REFUSE to acknowledge.
The ONLY reason people are buying them for these hiked prices is because these people live by the spreadsheet. So they look at the spreadsheet and ask for a scrap or 2 more on Outpost. People see them buying at those hiked prices then they come here and say "Hey, look here they are buying at this price now, here's the proof" Then it gets upvoted, Then these people see the spreadsheet is now a scrap or 2 even higher, so the same cycle happens. So everybody rushes to buy up the few remaining cheaper keys then start buying up the more expensive keys thinking the price is going to shoot up even higher. Then MORE proof comes out that people are buying at a scrap higher and so-on. So it's NOT the actual demand of the keys itself, it's this very upvote thing going on here and those that praise spreadsheet prices. This right here is the problem to these overpriced keys.
But your logic is flawed. If people lived by the spreadsheet, price would be perfectly stable. Sellers would highball and try to sell for a scrap higher. But since people live by the spreadsheet, buyers wouldn't buy it, as it would be higher than the spreadsheet price, causing sellers to try and resell at spreadsheet value again. Meaning the price would stay stable. So there is demand for keys, since buyers are willing to buy at much higher prices. The demand for keys is not because of uncrating, but mostly to resell, from what I've seen.
thats the thing, things with a flat value, stay stable MUCH longer (max heads and bills for example)
*wait read your post wrong nvm
It's not that it has to have a flat value, but if everyone followed backpack.tf price, No price changes would be needed, as everyone would just be using the same source for their price, so the buyers and seller should theoretically be selling and buying in the current range, IF everyone followed the prices here.
Why don't we just make a suggestion for 5 ref, since we all know it'll be there next week or so.
Inb4
Why don't we just make a suggestion for 6 ref, since we all know it'll be there next week or so.
Give it a month, we'll be at 8
By the current inflation rate and 4.55 as the average backpack.tf-price, Keys will hit 10 Ref in exactly one year.
I'm going to wait till I can buy Buds with a key or two. At this rate it should only be a couple weeks. Wait till Steam catches on and they raise their prices to $3.50 a key.
that don't even make sense bro. key never actually raise raise in $ value, only metal lose value in $.
Hmm I thought this as well but everyone on outpost has risen the price they are selling their keys for to like 1.50$ or more.
They have always tried to do that. This is outpost we're talking about. Other places such as sorce OP have always selling at about 1.35 a key.
Ok, find me one person :P
Problem is, people on SourceOP are also selling them for $1.50 and above. Some are even selling them for close to $2.00...
Yeah it's strange the raise was so sudden >_> <_< *aliens*
Does anyone listen to you anymore.
You've made a successful mission to be the least useful person on the site.
if you judge a person usefulness based on their ability to make key suggestions then mattje, baloo, kingofheart, simon, etc are all useless.
Trading is not fun anymore when you need 200 $1 coins to change into 1 $100 note, when there is only a false belief that $100 notes are in shortage.
Best name ever
actually it is not because people think keys are in shortage it is because they realize how freely available refined metal are and also how useless and space taking they are so they want key instead of metal
In your example it seem like you think metal and key have values that never change and that the exchange rate must be always the same but it is actually not because metal keep losing value everyday. the $100 notes are still there but the $1 coins don't worth $1 anymore.
People say that the amounts of metal in the game is in a level that is too high. That may be a fact, but I think a huge player in that is actually price checking sites like bp.tf and spreadsheet.
Metal is used as a currency but ultimately it is used as a crafting ingredient to make hats.
But with 3 ref price there is no reason to craft hats with metal, as 1.33 or even 1.44 basic hat price means people don't need to use metal to craft hats. It doesn't mean people don't craft hats, however, they just craft with other hats, leaving metal to stay, its purpose unfulfilled and its number multiplies.
Who set the hat price to be 1.33 anyway? If the basic hat price was 1.66, people would be enticed to craft with metal, metal numbers would stablize, I know it will never be reality, but it certainly would solve the problem in metal numbers.
The hat price wasn't 'set'. That's just how the market progressed. I'll skip the history lesson on how the price of the craft hat developed, but suffice to say that it's due to metal being more desirable than a craft hat. Metal is easier to trade for other items, while undesirable or overly abundant hats are extremely difficult to find someone who wants to trade for it for its own sake rather than for crafting purposes or would accept it as anything less than a refined because trading is hard.
Basically, the craft hat price is less than 1.5 refined specificially because the metal hat crafting recipe is 3 refined. The market that creates the 'any craft hat 1.33 ref' pricepoint is looking solely to gamble by smashing hats together. If the hat rebuild recipe didn't exist, the 1.33 minimum would disappear and certain hats could be going as low as a scrap.
Why is everyone against raising prices?
Because it makes buying suck
Look at it this way. since Scrap is easier to come by (with the introduction of F2P) There is more of a supply of Scrap so for some mythical reason Keys increased in price. Why I guess because people put a lower value on it because there is ore but there is no way to say definitely how much of an impact F2P has on the economy other than what people are asking for their items. On another note since the cost of Keys is rising some things that cost a Key or more seem to be dropping at the same time which is curious given the fact the Key are increasing. What we see here is a possible vicious cycle when people will keep paying more for Keys (to a point but many will still go on with it) and those with the Keys can get "more bang for their buck" being able to afford more items and buy them up which may then increase the demand, spiking said items worth and increasing their backpacks worth in a period of 6 months to 1 year. But I can be wrong, the point is if you want to keep costs down you need to keep the demand up for Scrap and keeping the demand for keys down. How we can do this I can only speculate but if any of you want to discuss it further feel free to add me and we can organize a group chat. The main thing to remember is that this is a GAME and that extreme measures to keep your costs down from Valve aren't to be expected the only solutions may need to come from the community.
Maybe key suggestions would be more tolerable if most people arguing to keep increasing prices more and more we re not also douchebags that think they're always correct and anyone with less valuable backpacks are worthless thrash.
Can't wait until 5 refined.
Nice even number.
inb4 5.11
4 and 2.66 were the best IMO, as they are easily divisible into the two higher iterations of metal and also into craft hats. A 2.66 ref key would probably make me return to trading with metal.
tbh 3 ref worked perfectly 3 scrap=rec 3 rec=ref 3 ref=key
Yeah, that was pretty simple too.
Good proof. 4.55 is definitely the price right now, seen buyers and sellers at this price. You've also shown the need for a price range, I doubt keys will ever not have a range anyways.
Upvote from me, grudgingly. I really need to start PayPal trading.
there going up in $ price too though :<
Not as much, the price is capped at the Mann Co. Store price, so it would at least be more reliable.
And it seems that any sensible comment reflecting on the price of keys is downvoted to hell, next time I'll just avoid the flame wars :3
gotta point there^
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10041257 - four ref for a key 1 hour unsold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9759413
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10039907 - 4.33 seller
Actually, now that I think about it the whole "proof" problem may be the issue. seeing as we aren't focusing on IF the Keys are selling but rather WHAT THEY ARE SELLING FOR. Just because a 50 or so keys were bought at a higher price out of the whole number sold during that period doesn't mean it should increase. it would be like looking at sea food prices in the Mid-West United States and saying that since the price is higher there (because the cost of shipping would mean it would be increased in retail) it should be the same price off the coast of Maine or California. In turn the prices in the Mid-West would increase again because the higher prices are now the norm and sellers would need to make more of a profit. Maybe we should have a singular, base cost of Keys based upon the DEMAND and not based upon prices set by those who simply want to increase their net worth and do so because people who, for some reason or another, buy them up. I feel that was a very apt metaphor.
GUYS FOR GODS SAKE YOU'RE KEEPING THE F2P'S AWAY !
i travelled for 2 months , and i've lost almost 2 buds , cuz of this key price is changing so bad, look at my items now.
A key suggestion a day keeps the F2p's away
I am offended.
Are you people seriously upvoting keys again!? my god you people are exactly whats wrong with the tf2 economy right now
YES IT IS COMPLETELY OUR FAULT
cba anymore its bp.tfs fault and always will be.
Now watch all the people downvote this comment going no its not blah blah blah
When bp.tf has the final say on suggestions thus changing there value
"When bp.tf has the final say on suggestions thus changing there value"
except in order for bp.tf to changing values, there must be proof which are from the market.
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/512fee5eba2536e311000026
As in two half assed links
uncraft
have less than a page
posting only proof that support my suggestion.
NO, NO MORE RISING. THIS IS FUCKING ENOUGH.
are you enraged?
plz stop
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9717547
selling for 4
i dont care about proof and other "financial" logic.
i just think keys are 4 ref.
i think keys are 2.55.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10047801
selling for 0.11
i dont care about proof and other "financial" logic.
i just think keys are 0.11 ref.
People have the liberty to sell their wares at the price they damn choose, you know.
infact i want 1 skrap
Ironic stupid
Is still stupid
Just put up a trade selling akey for 4.66 and got 5 adds within a minute.
*sigh*
Upvote
as much as I hate the key price to be raised, the proof is pretty solid, up vote
Tell me! How much of the proof is actually just Quickbuyers.
I think it's a bit early to change the price yet, some people are still buying for 4.33.
I struggle to sell my keys at 4.33 ref. It takes me about 4 hours to sell just one. Still, the suggestion is correct.
wait what
where
classifieds - nothing
outpost - nothing
bazaar - nothing
you have: 0 keys
you have: 0 metal
I'll buy them all~
Obviously this is legitimate.
This is an endless cycle. ADMINS: DON'T ALLOW KEY SUGGESTIONS PLEASE. People will post for over spreadsheet price every FUCKING TIME. Every time you increase the price, they increase it again. The lazy people in outpost don't bother to find legitimate sellers with fair prices, and so they buy from these people.
STOP SUGGESTING KEYS. LEAVE IT FOR 1 MONTH, I GUARANTEE THEY WILL NOT RISE DURING THAT MONTH.
this was already disproven
Key suggestions were stopped for a while (crappy proof, rudness...etc), backpack tf stopped around 4.22-4.33 for a little, and keys were being sold for 4.66 already.
Just stop buying keys at ridiculous prices and it will drop!
12:46 PM - igr | Ryno #LFS830EST: Hey... Tycoon
12:46 PM - igr | Ryno #LFS830EST: I need you
12:46 PM - igr | Ryno #LFS830EST: You have keys right?
12:46 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: yeh
12:48 PM - igr | Ryno #LFS830EST: I have metal. What is your rate?
12:48 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: I don't wanna sell D:
12:48 PM - igr | Ryno #LFS830EST: Please. I just need 2-3
12:49 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: 5 ref a piece
12:49 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: LOLO
12:49 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: srs price
12:49 PM - igr | Ryno #LFS830EST: -___-
12:50 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: xD
12:50 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: thats what I paid anyway
12:50 PM - igr | Ryno #LFS830EST: Really. What's your rate?
12:50 PM - igr | Ryno #LFS830EST: 4 ref?
12:50 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: fuck no
12:50 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: that's highway robbery
12:50 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: keys are 4.66 easily
12:50 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: when selling
12:51 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: 4.88 was the lowest price in stock on OP
12:51 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: T_T
12:51 PM - igr | Ryno #LFS830EST: Y do I ask a trader....
12:52 PM - [F2P] Tyc oon | B>S.MG>0.22: economy is fucked, gl
12:52 PM - igr | Ryno #LFS830EST: D':
so what
Just making a statement on the subject of keys. Did I ask for your personal opinion?
Did I ask for your personal opinion?
Your last suggestion got closed for rudeness. Nice to see you haven't improved.
you said the same thing
I said that's highway robbery, not that the seller would be considered a retard.
I like how the people making these suggestions are always the same people who own over a page of keys, pretending they don't know that keys always sell slightly above the suggested range. Just when we get a stable range of 4.33-4.66 we see the same happy merchants come out and try to raise the price again shouting MUH ACCURACY. At least it will be entertaining when they eventually can't raise the price any more and start crying how they can't turn a profit off keys.
It's pathetic, really; they'd rather walk away with an extra hundred dollar bill in their pocket than let potential traders at least have a chance at making their first key. The new range is such a huge deterrence and soon it'll just be pointless...
Then get people to please stop buying keys at stupid prices =_=
I opened a trade selling for 5refs and i got 3 adds in 2 mins...
Quick-buying is going to happen at any price. The problem is that it's used as an icing on the cake of 4.66 and 4.55 trades.
i wonder how much the OP's rep increased because of this suggestion...
I can't even quick buy keys at 4.66 but making it 4.66 might as well make it 5 ref.
I used to trade keys and metal, and all that stuff.
Now I don't. There's no point.
If I cave and say "Fine, I'll buy some keys for 4.33.", within the time it takes me to say that sentence, and start looking for traders, the price will rise twice.
If the damn staff would actually read the comments/see what people say, they'd see it's not just a person providing 'proof' of why the price should rise. There are ass-loads of counter proof comments, massive amounts of negative votes (I know votes aren't great to go off of, but they're there for a reason for fucks sake).
Why allow comments/votes if the key price raises every 3 days, regardless of counter 'proof', votes, community outcry, and net-wide hate for it.
People say "backpack.tf is not a reason for key price rises.' But fail to realize...yea, it is. It isn't just a 'reflection of prices.'
People look at this site to make their prices, so think every now and then, please.
ttly agreed
If you want to discuss why the keys are rising, you're more than welcome in the forums. There are 2 topics about it where we debate the factors that may be causing the rise.
It has also been explained many times why the suggestions pass even with more downvotes than upvotes. Also, you think we don't read the comments? The counter proof posted is not enough, even if its valid. If people are buying keys at 4.44-4.55 often, then people who sell for 4.33 just fail to realize they can get more for it. Their trades don't really count as its too easy to sell for more than that.
:\
By the time this price suggestion is accepted, it will be low already. Browsing the outpost, I couldn't find a lower price in 10 pages, and eventually just bought 4 at 4.88-5 ref
What is the point of voting if they accept the suggestion even if majority states more people don't want it?
Because that doesnt reflect accurate prices, voting is a way to determine acceptance or not, however when it comes to promos everyone is bias.
Open a trade with no proof, decreasing the price of keys and i guarantee you that you'll get alot of upvotes.
Voting is one way to determining but if and only it is backed with valid proof
If not every hat and every unusual would be a few scraps "because the people have voted on it"
hope i helped!
Key prices will go raise and raise, but why?
this price is already outdated. 4.77-4.88 ref is what all traders are going for. impossible to find cheaper on seller side.