As time slowly passes, the TF2 community has clearly demonstrated a strong, undesirable characteristic when it comes to the Genuine Ap-sap, urging the fact that its value has to be bumped down. Allow me to present my analysis. I believe that to see what an item is truly worth, one has to research on its buying and selling rate, offers on it, and actual trades that happened. I shall begin:

BUYING:

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Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9238291

-1 month, autobumps every 2 hours

-Observe how the offers in the comments slowly decreases their price as expectation of amount paid for ap saps decreases.

-1 month ago, people expect at least 18-20 keys. Slowly, people are offering 10 keys due to decreased hype.

Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9937735

-1 week, autobumps per hour

-Offers: 11 keys, 10 keys 3 ref, 10 keys. Represents the fact that the Ap-Sap's price is no longer 11 keys. Simply put, this item needs a slight range in it due to the community's demand of price for it.

-Apparently, even 10 keys is not low enough for the owner.

Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9389805

-4 weeks. No aytobumps, but user seems to be decently active in bumping it.

-This trade is a perfect example, and I must say, am I happy this trade existed. It made describing the decreasing hype for Ap Sap much easier. Four weeks ago, 20 keys was a common offer, but now, it has dropped almost by half of that.

-User made a good point, let me quote this directly: "i probably wont, because i expect it to drop drastically because you can still buy the pack for 13 $ but thanks for the offer anyway"

-10 keys 2 ref offer, lower than current pricing.

Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9457069

-3 weeks, autobumps every hour

-Best trade I have seen so far in terms of getting successful deals for ap-sap for 10 keys. Stated clearly in the comments section, at least 3 people added him RECENTLY for an ap sap sale.

Let's proceed to observe the people who are selling their ap-sap, and see if they get successful trades for their prices, as well as to be even more accurate on the community's demand for it. Some of the links are quite recent, and I have to apologize for that, but there are very few posts selling Ap Sap since a long time ago.

SELLING:

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10139183

-11 keys, no adds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10137634

- 11 keys, no adds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9754895

-2 weeks, autobump

-15 keys, no adds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10129447

-12 keys, no adds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10139706

-12 keys, no adds

To be honest, at first, I thought about shifting the price to 10 keys flat. After being a little more careful and checking out even more trades to confirm my suspicion of what the new ap sap price should be, I decided that 10-11 keys shall be a more precise range, since 11 key deals happen at times. Any price above that is completely not happening. Just wanted to put 10 keys in the range since some, if not many, trades are happening at 10 - 10 keys 2 ref.

Please comment and tell me what you think, whether it be agreement or criticism =)