Suggestion: Stormy 13th Hour Your Worst Nightmare at 180.55–254.89 keys

Price Suggestion

~285 keys

13th

54 votes up

1 vote down

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This suggestion was accepted Sat, 20 Apr 13 07:00:56 +0000 by [GIRL] Mr. Bucket.

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Comments

That range... 1 of 2 now. One sold for 16 pure 1 month ago back when it was a 1 of 1 hat? Another one magically surfaced in the last month and has been traded twice for 9-ish in unusuals and once for a 15 buds bp... So we have a massive range :)

ACTUAL SALES:

8.4 pure (9.3 in unusuals) - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9724468 - B/O 11 pure - sold for cloudy moon noble shown here - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9617743

8.5 pure (9.4 in unusuals) - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9975494 - sold for harvest spartan

12 pure (15 buds of pure irritation) - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10124206 - traded his whole bp for it. Not even sure how much overpay to add for that... 12 seems fair

Also, unbelievably, there are NO OTHER OFFERS on ANY of these trades.

My question to you is, which is the outlier? It has sold twice for 8.5, once for 12, once for 16. Not using 16 pure in the range since it was a 1 of 1 hat at the time of the sale. I think the guy paying 12 overpayed since he was going by the bp.tf value which is WAY too high. Let's fix this so more people don't fall prey to the bp.tf value.

EDIT: looks like the one that sold for 16 is in a collector's bp: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198050055620

If there's sales at each end, then that totally justifies the range :)

you have my upvote, sir!

I was looking into pricing this earlier. Problem is, is that recent trades for this involve other outdated unusuals like the Harvest Spartan and Cloudy Noble. So its hard to say whats outlier.

I'm already looking into updating the price of the Harvest Spartan and Cloudy Noble.

Very fair point. Here's my thinking

(1) This is definitely more accurate than the current price and close to representing what this hat is worth

(2) I took a look at the spartan - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9393914 - highest offers are around 10-11 in unusuals (highest is a duped burning milkman + of bonk boy) and traded in a huge deal for a secret bomber - this wouldn't be far from its current value

(3) Cloudy noble is only 2.5 months old, I believe, and I thought it wasn't so old as to be unreasonable.

Think about it this way, my middle price here (10.25) is still going to be equal to or greater than the middle price of either of those two hats. Having my high end at 12 is fairly generous considering that sale was by far the greatest offer this hat has received since it became a 1 of 2 hat.

We can optimize and narrow the range as more sales occur, but I don't want more people getting fooled by bp.tf's grossly inaccurate range because one person has already fallen victim to that.