http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10110780 - this hat sold but not to those listed, the current is trying to sell it now. b/o was a bud but I did not find the bud and the keys did not come from that buyer. Can’t verify

Also, in this closed sale were some offers as well that I am using, as they r not old. The median value of those hats were 16 – 19 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8093459 - offer of 18 keys, hat worth 13 – 17,

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10092342 - offer of hats worth 16 – 20, 17 – 19 (inc 4 keys), 18 – 22 keys (inc 4 keys)

Not knowing what was paid in the one transaction we have hurts the suggestion but we can say this.

The median of the offers we know about was 16 – 19 keys in unusual. If you take into account that it is generally accepted that you should overpay in a swap situation than clearly those interested in this hat don’t think it’s worth the list price. Also, the only pure offer we have is below the high end of current range.

I have based my suggestion on the median of the offers: 16 – 19 keys