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Updating 5 month old price. Has gone twice for the new high end and hasn't gone for less than 2.5 in the past month.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10281669
New owners trade. Only offer so far is 1 bud + 30 keys (2.4). Offer was retracted.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10260962
Never received an offer. Had a buyout of 2 buds + 14 keys (2.6).
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10099097
Notable offers were a Stormy Ballcap (2.3-2.6)*, 90USD via Steam, a Bubbling Brown Bomber (2.5-3)*, and a N&B Executioner (2.6-3.1)*.
Sold for atleast 2 buds + 17 keys (2.8). BP history appears to confirm him only getting 2 buds + 17 keys.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9533890
Had an offer of 37 keys + a Big Kill (2), a N&B Executioner (2.6-3)*, a Stormy Fez + S. Sapper (2.5-2.7), Steaming Anger (2.3-2.7), and Bubbling Brown Bomber (2.5-3)*.
Sold for 2 buds + 13 keys + 22 ref (2.8)
He originally got it for a Smoking Anger (2.8-3.3). No evidence on if he was offered the Panama or if he offered the Anger, so I can't determine which way to factor the overpay.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9528808
Never had a visible offer. Sold for a Lantern Cone + Smoking Slouch (2.7-3.2) ~ 2.5 pure.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9495838
Offered it and sold it for a Burning Buckaroos (2.3-2.7).
Unusual overpay would put a value of 3.1 on the Panama. Considering outlier due to lack of offers and trades at this price.
*Prices of these unusuals are outdated and need updating
Also, all prices are based on the value of buds at the time they were offered.