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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10301955 Upon seeing this trade (B/O of 17) I had to investigate this price. What I found? Well...
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10100541 - Bubbling Toe + Sweets. Rejected (13-16 key offer. Unknown amount of sweets)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10065489 - 1 offer of 15 keys. Also had an offer of a Parts Huntsman which I valued at about 16 keys (Halving price of all parts attached). Another offer was a Planets Rat (13-17 keys).
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10300140 - Offer of a Bubbling Dixie (13-15) Rejected.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10200493 - Smoking Bombing Run (15-17) on it. Another offer of a Nuts Raincatcher + a key. (14-17)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9977938 - B/O of 1 bud. No offers.
CONCLUSION
Nobody is paying 18 keys for it. And anyone who is offering close to 17, is using unusuals, and reaching it through the high end of the hat. 19 is definitely too high. And 18? Well, Nobody wanted to do that.
The buyout of 17 is too recent. Last 2 owners had buyouts of 20 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10300140
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10162874
So I suggest you investigate more on ACTUAL trades, and ask those guys if they got their 20 keys buyouts.
Also offers below 17 doesnt mean people wont go that high :)
First link sold within a day.
Third link has an offer of 18 keys.
Forth link has a buyout of 20 keys and sold within a day.
Fifth link is less than a week old.
since is my trade i sold the snaggle for 1 white bills+Festive rocket+Festive wrench+Festive sniper+1 key
just for note