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Two sold for 3.2 (not quicksells) and 1 for 4.2, but at least two offers of 4.4 (and one was mostly pure). So a wide starting range of 3.2-4.4.
ACTUAL SALES:
4.2? - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9749528 - sold for stormy bomber. Unclear if 1:1 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9636603
Best Offers:
4.4 (4.9 in unusuals - lantern guad) - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9636603
4.1 (2.6 pure + 1.75 in unusuals)
4 (smoking jefe + of fedora + bills) - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9636603
3.2 (3.55 in unusuals) - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9625667 - sold for a nuts tc here - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9610410
3.2 (3.5 in unusuals) - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9800644 traded for peace hetman+lantern sack+bubbling aa here - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9693753
CURRENT TRADES:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8890332 - B/O 5
Best Offers:
4.4 (4.9 in unusuals – lantern guad)
4.4 (100 keys + steaming salty dog)
4 (of company man+cauldron topi+sweets)
3.6 (4.05 in unusuals) – lantern lid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9804846 - B/O 4.5
Not really any decent offers
Unless my brain is not working properly at this hour, I think I noticed an issue here. You calculated unusual overpay in the opposite direction for the Nuts TC. Since he offered the Misty Helmet, he would be that overpayed. Not the other way around.
Anyway staying neutral til the morning when I can properly think.
It was traded both ways (one sold for a nuts TC, one was offered on a nuts TC)
Yup. What Pedrobear said. In any case, if you want to calculate it the other way, it would still be in the range.