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Just got one of these as sweets in a trade, saw the price was 5 months old.
VERY easy offers of 2 ref, some sell for higher than 2.33 but with most people only taking offers its hard to be sure of setting it at 2.66, so I'm sticking to 2.33 for now.
SOLD/WILLING BUYERS:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10253846 1 key (outlier obviously)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10259586 2.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9970323 Killer Exclusive (2-2.33)
UNSOLD:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10128264 2 ref (UNBUMPED)
OFFERS:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10288259 Pillar of Hats + Birdcage (2.88 in hats)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8466512 2.33, also 2 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9999570 2.22, 2 offers of 1.77
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10235769 3 ref, OP adds S.L'etranger (2 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10205945 Craft hat + .66 (2 ref), also 1.88, Black Napper (only has a normal napper in BP? Still a 2 ref hat)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10228543 2 ref
can you find failed buyers at 1.66 to prove that 1.66 is wrong?
Most people are buying it as a craft hat or 1.44 and failing. Best I can find is this:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10220821 1:1 with Orange paint (1.66), unbought
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10302468 1:1 with Airborne Enemies part (1.66-2) unbought but still new
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9708870 Only one add, 3 weeks ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10033899 One add in a week at 1.77
Also while looking through the buyers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10291147 1:1 with dirty Front Runner (2 ref)
Yeah :/ It barely ever sells for 1.66.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10086307
1 week buy offer and no bites.
Just sold my extra one + 2 ref for a G.Vuvuzela noisemaker, if that means anything to you guys.
Some of those sellers were offered 2.33 or over, and buyers aren't getting many at 1.66. Not the most decisive evidence, and it's strange to see a normal hat go up in price, but that seems to be the case.