Nice effect and the hat isn't that low tier. Looks like a good range.

I'm gonna list the best offers within the last month for this hat on your trades.

First link: 3 days old, Orbiting fire Tough Guy's Toque + sweets (1.17 buds + few sweets)

Second link: Bubbling Gonzilla + 13 keys (about 1.24 buds)

Third link: 1 bud + 2 keys (1.1 buds or so)

Where the hell did you get the 1.4 bud high end?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10160195 sold for~22 keys , 1-1.3 will be fair .