Not many on the market, so its not surprising that the price was based on 1 trade only. This didn't actually need a drop, I was able to sell it for 1.66 ref just right before this suggestion was accepted. 1 ref seems to low with 2 ppl willing buyers just well within a day but trade didn't go through possibly due to time difference and I was able to buy it. Proof below:

Sold for 1 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10226914 (I bought it)

Sold for 1.66 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10146077

http://i.imgur.com/c4FTPRx.png

http://i.imgur.com/notJk3F.png

Not the best of range, but seems to be accurate seeing that there's none on sale for now.