This item needs a drop. There are so many selling for below 2 ref. While most trades get offers of 2 ref or even higher, none of them went through. You can easily get this for below 1.66 ref too. Proof below:

Selling for 0.33 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10328597

Selling for 0.55 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10236784

Selling for 0.66 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10311783

Selling for 1 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10236617

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10334630

Selling for 1.66 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9913414

Unsold at 2 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10001837 (2 weeks)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10290850 (3 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10172554 (1 week)

Being offered 1.66-2 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9926676 (genuine lone star)

Buyers trade (this is the only notable one, lots of buyers at 2 ref don't provide gift wrap):

Being offered 1.33 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10220119

Weird range, but at least more accurate than the current one.