Ok, big range but here's the deal. There are a lot of dupes of this hat. Levels 7, 41 and 92 are duped to hell. They are also the ones on outpost all the time selling for that 2.5 range.

I just sold my CLEAN one for a clean holiday headcase and a gold bills (~3.3 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10120214/

Declined 2 buds and $85

Others on the market:

Clean:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10474731

-the guy that bought mine offered on this trade too, so best offer here is 3 buds

Dupes:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8526765

-max head

-2buds or black max

-TS max

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10231547

-Noble amassment of hats orb fire+12keys (~2.5)

-refused the HH offer

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10303760

-clean max, seller countered with 2.5 offer. Buyer refused since it's duped.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10194965

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10487432

So as you can see clean ones are rare and it's really just the dupes dragging the value down since there are som many of them.

FYI, I bought mine for 2.5 in mixed unusual and promo.