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Selling
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/104234496 (1 key)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10421855 (1 Key)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10470976 (1 Key)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10494190 (1 Key, 2.33)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10507162 (1 key 2ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10490387 (5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10359214 (1 key)
Unsold:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10409383 (4 days, 1 Key 2 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10348712 (6 days, 1 Key 2.44)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10425068 (4 days, 1.5 Keys )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10418838 (4 days, 1.5 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10333130 (1 week, 1.5 Keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10480897 (1 day, 1.5 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10341626 (6 days, 1.5 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10108750 (2 weeks, 1.5 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10467289 (2 days, 1.5 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10362442 (6 days, 1.5 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10486167 (1 day, 1 key 2.33)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10274454 (1 week, 1 key 2.33)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10450247 (2 days, 1.5 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10387781 (5 days, 1 key + 2.33)
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/merc's (5 unsold at 1.5 keys)
Unsold at 1.5 keys and below all over the place, sellers at 1 key, the muffler looks better. I guess that last point doesn't count though.
http://puu.sh/2LzKO.png
Ok. That's a single 1:1 trade between a merc's muffler and a merc's pride scarf. However, the muffler is valued at 1.75 keys and of course you can see many trades selling at and failing below 1.5. It would seem they overpayed without reason. Perhaps they simply wanted the pride scarf more, because even considering the current range (1.5 Keys) that's a large overpay - and you can't say it's hard at all to find it at 1.5 or below. I think that's an outlier.