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1 key flat is better.
SELLING
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10520226 Selling for 1 key (have 2)
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/vintage%20fragment Only 1 for 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10576545 Selling for 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10464678 Selling for 1 key
UNSOLD
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10513896 1 key + 1.66 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10527769 1 key + 1.00 ref
BUYER
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10549633 Have an offer of 5 ref (1 key)
Many are in sale as set.
You need proof that shows its has been sold for a key. All those people are doing is asking for a key
If people ask for a key, and nobody is taking it, it's more proof that it should be even lower, therefore supporting Trip's price.