Just tidying the range, here's the evidence:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8995422 Had offers (on an old trade) of:

(Notables)

Flaming Lantern Team Captain - 20.3 buds with overpay considered

Cloudy moon Hallmark + 7 buds - 24-25 in mixed (can't really count it highly as it was offered by a marked scammer)

Secret fez + P. energy Connoisseur's Cap + Hearts crown - Roughly 18.5 in unusuals with overpay considered

Clean burning reggaelator (18-19 due to cleanliness) + sweets (will find details on these)

Hat was bought for - A cloudy moon bomber but the buyer added a sparkle luger + a blizz bonk boy + 1 bud. (~20-22 at today's prices with overpay considered)

Hardly any of these hats have been on the market since the last suggestion - only the one I've listed so I hope it's enough evidence.

And: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6221012 If I've missed anything even though it's before the latest suggestion.

http://imgur.com/VsU5thh Conversation with previous owner.

Also if you're going to downvote, please leave a reason. I hate seeing my points go down randomly due to some troll.