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UNSOLD
6.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10576223 2 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10625857 (1 key + 1.33) new
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10550259 3 days
6.22
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10506141 5 days
6.11
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10607427 1 day
6
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10636151 very new
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10481578 6 days, interest
SOLD
6
http://i.imgur.com/fMtxlcl.png (tf2tp broken link)
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9377667
6.33
http://i.imgur.com/vVAKurK.png (tf2tp broken link)
Most buyers, if not all are buying for 4 refined
not a lot sold for 6.33
people are having trouble selling for less than 6.33
6 refined is getting into seller side now
bump down
I added my notes to your proof in bold
I don't think that there is enough evidence to lower the high end because of the recent rise in the price of keys, 1 key+1 ref has now gone slightly above 6 ref.
UNSOLD
6.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10576223 2 days Added for 1 key + 1 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10625857 (1 key + 1.33) new
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10550259 3 days Offered 1 key + 1 ref
6.22
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10506141 5 days Willing buyer
6.11
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10607427 1 day Same seller as 1st link
6
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10636151 very new Added
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10481578 6 days, interest Not bumped, but willing buyer
SOLD
6
http://i.imgur.com/fMtxlcl.png (tf2tp broken link)
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9377667
6.33
http://i.imgur.com/vVAKurK.png (tf2tp broken link)
6.22 still hasn't made a trade yet.
6.11, as you said, is the first seller. Most likely, his couldn't sell at the higher price.
Currently, a key is about 5 refined. Assuming long's suggestion doesn't pass, a key and a refined is a weapon (I think?) off the suggested price.
I will close if necessary, (mainly more counterproof or if long's suggestion passes)
However, it is a scarce item at the moment, and the few attempting to sell at 6.33 doesn't seem to be going.
I don't think the 6.33 ref sellers are old enough to suggest a change. The fact that a buyer was willing to pay 6.22 ref, even if not completed yet, is enough to counter your suggested 6 ref price. As the buyer mentioned, a key can easily be sold for higher than 5 ref.
You even showed proof of one being sold at 6.33 ref...
Overall, your proof is a little meager.
L1 and L5 can be grouped as 1 key + 1 ref.
L2 is barely bumped and under 1 day old.
L3 was offered 1 key + 1 ref.
L4 has a willing buyer.
L6 and L7 are in the range.
There are pretty much no valid links.