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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10526034 5th offer is 17 keys (near to be accepted)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10570672 17 Keys offer
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10606850 Selling for 18 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10552069 Selling for 18 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10285458 Have 3 Add for Machina (16 keys + 3 refs; 1 offer for 17 keys )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10286683 Sold for 18 keys (Very Good Strange Parts)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10571591 Sold for 17 keys (Quickselling btw)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7772383 Have an offer of 88 Refs (17.6 Keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10454447 16 keys (1 bought)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10538880 16 keys + 3 refs (1 bought)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10647277 Bought for B.M.O.C. + S.Invis Watch + 2 keys 16 keys in items + 2 pure)
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/strange%20machina Unsold at 19 keys (2 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10641002 New 19 keys (HS Part,Domin. Part)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10606850 Selling for 18 keys (Unsold 2 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10495453 Unsold for 19 keys (6 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10546812 Unsold for 20 keys (HS Part-4 days)
There aren't a lot of proofs for unsold 19 keys because people selling for less or more O.o
Quickselling doesn't count, and offers that don't get accepted don't count either.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10454447 16 keys (1 bought)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10538880 16 keys + 3 refs (1 bought)
These 2 still aren't bought, the offer for the item is still there, and before you say that he's buying other stuff as well, he crosses out the items that he has already bought, and the Machina hasn't been cancelled out.
So a better range would be 18 keys or so, as there isn't enough proof for 17 keys to be in the range.
when i say offer i mean the buyer have an offer (not considering not accepted offers.) btw that 2 maybe aren't bought you are right but the buyer have an offer of that, i know are quickbuy but i put them here to be more precise.
btw i see 4 offer at 17 keys and 3 at 16 keys + 3 refs so i think the 17 low end it's good.
Yeah, but offers don't count as proof, because I could just offer 1 crate for a bud, and that doesn't count as proof, especially if the owner of the bud declined it.
ehm if you are buying a bud and i offer that bud for a crate that can be counted as proof i think
I love when some people like you focus on one or two links that aren't necessarily valid and only those. While you don't focus on every other link that is legitimate proof. Also, that is such an illogical comparison, all you are doing is attempting to make this suggestion look stupid by creating some imaginary, ridiculous trade. By the way that exclusively wouldn't count as proof if the own of the bud declined it not "especially" because if it was accepted then it is proof, but again that is an illogical comparison. Now I'll criticize in a more polite way. The 1st and 2nd links do not matter, they only had offers of 17 keys they were not sold. Don't include quick sellers they usually take 20-50% off of the actual price. Now, all of your other proofs are good.
Here is some additional proof:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10135820 Sold for a Black + White Bill's which are 9 keys each 9 + 9 = 18 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10185543 Unsold at current range (19 keys) for 2 weeks
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10651969 Selling for 18 keys w/ strange parts headshot and snipers killed
Sellers on outpost are all either high ballers at 1 bud+ or selling for 17-18
Successful buyers at < 19 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10443600 Buying for 18 keys and got two in the comments agreeing to 18 keys one with a strange part
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10454447 Added for machina at 16 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10535739 Bought 1 for 16 keys
The evidence is there I say upvote.
http://trade.tf/price/526/11
The item has been dropping but it appears to have found a level point at this suggested price.
Upvote
It is VERY difficult to get these for 17 keys, I should know since I've been buying any I could find at 17 keys. I think 18-19 keys would be a fair price change, but this price change is way extreme.
I'm inclined to agree here. There's not a lot showing 17 keys, and the one that does is a very apparant quicksell. 18 keys DEFINITELY needs to be in range. I would say 17 does not.
I haven't looked closely enough to say about wheter 19 keys has enough going for it to stay in range, though I'm one to always recommend more conservative drops when it comes to murkier pictures like this one. Either way, one of 18 or 18-19 keys would be far better than 17-18 keys.
Bought a machina @ 17 keys, had headshot parts.
"QS" ed it at 19.
I agree w/ Vincent
upvote, cause keys price in usd is rising.
when keys were 1.4usd s.machina was 22 keys, and now keys are 1.8usd, so
22 X 1.4 / 1.8 = 17 keys :)
your link 1 got an offer of a bubbling helmet w/o a home -- 18-19 keys, and you can't base a price on a quicksale