Suggestion: Genuine Dragonborn Helmet at 2–2.5 keys

It's a ballsy reduction but I consider it an accurate one. If you can't sell something, clearly there is no demand, and the price ought to be reduced, especially if your offers are significantly lower than your selling price.

nice proof

Thanks, though credit to the other chap for finding some too with his suggestion.

The 2 keys sold are Quick buyers, we dont change prices by quick buyers

no proof of 2 keys, i will have to downvote for now

--------------------------------------------

(from your links)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10558054 - not sure if a quick buyer, but the guy retracted, he probaly sold for more then 2 keys

Please read :

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/969-psa-how-to-help-identify-quicksell-buyer-trades/

I will add this:

http://trade.tf/price/517/1

By it self it is not proof of what it could sell for but what it has.

Upvote. Mine has had no interest at 3 keys and have now reduce my price.

Well

look here : http://trade.tf/fair/search/Sell/Genuine/Dragonborn%20Helmet/None/1

They base their prices on the sellers and none sell for below 3 keys(only 1 for 2.8 and 2 keys+4ref)

Those are offers to sell not sold which is what they base the price on, a sample of transactions. The graph clearly shows that the item has not sold for 3 keys in a long while and it shows a downward trend.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10072296 - Buying for 2keys+1ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9864368 - Buying for 2.5keys in items

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10572704 - Buying for 2.5keys in items

I am a reseller and I accidentally got mine at around 2 key 2-3 ref thinking I could turn it. I will either break even or loose out.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10437288 - Sold for 2.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10411526 - Sold for 3 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10161287 - Someone is willing at 3 keys, your own link

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10531641 - 2.8 keys, counter offer 2.4-2.5

I don't see any counter offers.

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10558054 - added at 2 keys

It's retracted, and 2 keys is a quicksell, he sold it in less than one hour http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10662938 and the buyer is now selling it for 2.8 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10663944

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10513809 - added at 2 keys

That trade never happened, the offer was 4 days ago, and he still doesn't own it

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9743765 - added at 2 keys

That trade never happened as well

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10546038 - 2 keys, unsold

Changed the price very recently, and it'll probably turn out to be a quicksell

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10659995 - 2.4 keys

Still new, and it might sell before you know it

I don't see this as accurate at all, 2.6-2.8 or 2.6-3 would be better, since quicksells and quickbuyers shouldn't make the range.

Oh, and don't steal other peoples suggestions, they have the rights to resuggest.

Oh, and just found some more.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10072296 - Buys at 2.2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9864368 - Buys for a v. hat + 1 key (can be 2.5 keys in total)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10572704 - Buys for a mann's mint g. hero's tail (2.25 keys + 0.25 keys paint)

If nobody is buying them then all you can go on is quicksells. Simple business logic dictates if you have no demand then the price needs to be lower.

If people are adding to sell to quicksellers its because they cannot sell themselves for more as there is no demand. Even if the trade did not go through the offer was there initially. They ma have kept it, or used it as part payment for something else.

Furthermore > http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10531641 - 2.8 keys, counter offer 2.4-2.5 is a backpack expander, when the guys wants 2 keys 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10072296 - Buys at 2.2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9864368 - Buys for a v. hat + 1 key (can be 2.5 keys in total)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10572704 - Buys for a mann's mint g. hero's tail (2.25 keys + 0.25 keys paint)

All those support my range, so thank-you.

Edit: I'm not stealing anyone's suggestion, so thanks for making that up. Someone made one, I disagreed and made my own. I have quoted him into this so he gets credit for his proof too.

I'm unsure who is supporting me, if anyone here aha! So that's some general statements at whoever^

Actually it doesnt help you at all, there is buyers above your low end of the range

mean it shouldnt be that low

and quick buyers shouldnt be in the price range

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10072296 - cant buy for 1 key 4 ref, my low end range is 2 keys.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10072296 - Almost counter-proof, he's buying for 2.5-2.75 (my high end is 2.5 keys) and its ONE MONTH OLD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10572704 - actual counter proof, well done

L1: Just changed from 2 keys + 1 ref. to 1 key + 4 ref.

L2: Same link

L3: Buying at 2.5-2.75 keys in items

Here's all the counter proof:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10531641 - Sold for 2.8 keys (check his bp)

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9409278 - Sold for 3 keys (check his backpack)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10437288 - Sold for 2.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10411526 - Sold for 3 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10161287 - Willing buyer at 3 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9864368 - Buying for v. hat + 1 key (can go up to above 2 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10572704 - Buys for 2.5-2.75 keys in items

You can't ignore the fact of sales at above your range, which makes it wrong.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10531641 - Sold for 2.8 keys (check his bp). You don't know he sold for 2.8 keys, still, as he was offered a backpack expander.

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9409278 - Sold for 3 keys (check his backpack). 1 week old.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10437288 - Sold for 2.6 keys. 1 week old.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10411526 - Sold for 3 keys 1 week old.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10161287 - Willing buyer at 3 keys, did not buy..

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9864368 - Buying for v. hat + 1 key (has clearly changed his offer http://puu.sh/2Q2OS/86e4b8e816.png and his offer is 2.5, within my range.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10572704 - Buys for 2.5-2.75 keys in items - your only piece of counter proof, well done.

Show me someone who has actually bought/buying RECENTLY other than this person http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10572704 successfully.

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10531641 - Sold for 2.8 keys (check his bp). You don't know he sold for 2.8 keys, still, as he was offered a backpack expander.

Well, he didn't sell for a bp expander, and why sell it for less?

> http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9409278 - Sold for 3 keys (check his backpack). 1 week old.

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10437288 - Sold for 2.6 keys. 1 week old.

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10411526 - Sold for 3 keys 1 week old.

Still valid, all of them

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10161287 - Willing buyer at 3 keys, did not buy..

Haven't been online since the offer was made

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9864368 - Buying for v. hat + 1 key (has clearly changed his offer http://puu.sh/2Q2OS/86e4b8e816.png and his offer is 2.5, within my range.

You don't know if he's willing with one of his other v. hats, since he still is interested, + 2.5 keys is above your low range, which makes it should be the low range.

> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10572704 - Buys for 2.5-2.75 keys in items - your only piece of counter proof, well done.

You have no idea on how so make suggestions or what? Because you can't even see valid counter proof.

> Show me someone who has actually bought/buying RECENTLY other than this person http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10572704 successfully.

1 week is recently, and he haven't bought, which means he can't even get it for that, which is great counter proof.

Someone is buying at 2.2, that means 2 keys can't be the low range, because you can easily sell it for above.

And they haven't bought any, so they're not supporting you in anyway, it's clean counter proof.

And more counter proof:

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9418762 - Sold for 2.8 keys

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9409278 - Sold for 3 keys

(All credit to blind polar bear for finding these)

link one is the same as this one http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10531641 - 2.8 keys, counter offer 2.4-2.5, you don't know if he took the offer or sold.

link 2 is proof, but its 6 days old and many others havent sold at that price.

There's only 1 way to remove an item from tf2tp, and that's by selling it, so it must have been sold.

And look in his backpack, it's sold.

That makes no sense.

He has the same trade here:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10531641

Here he has an offer of 2.4-2.5 keys, and you do not know if he took it. So it is not proof of selling at 2.8 keys, it is only proof that he sold it at some point for some price.

Edit: I can't reply to Evul Roaching for some reason:

Check his backpack, do you see any bp expanders? - NO i don't. But do you see 2 keys? No.

Check his backpack, do you see any bp expanders?

And also, it was sold a while ago, I checked his backpack from yesterday, it wasn't there.

your second outpost link has an offer of a bp expander -- 2.5 keys, not much proof of 2 keys

This doesn't even make sense. One trade where he's selling for 2 keys 4 ref, and countered with 2.5 keys obviously isn't proof of 2 keys. I'm pretty sure I never said 'This trade is proof of 2 keys'. That trade would be proof of a lack of demand, hence why it isn't sold, and a counter offer which suits the new range.

how does it not make sense..? you suggested 2 keys in your range when people are offering above that.

Because someone is selling for 2 keys and buying successfully / being offered 2 keys? Which is why its 2-2.5? I don't understand what you aren't getting here.

the 2 key one has already been bought as of now, it was bought pretty fast after you put this suggestion up, and buyers buy them as quicksells to resell for higher, can't base a price on quicksell buyers

You can if its only quicksellers buying it. There's one person paying 2.5-2.75 in items and no-one else wants one. A whole lot remain unsold above 2.5 and nearly all offers on trades are 2-2.5 in pure or items.

not really since offers at 2.5 keys are getting rejected in some cases and there are quite a lot of offers at 2.5 keys, i don't see why the lower range is .5 keys lower than people's offers because the majority is at 2.5 keys

http://puu.sh/2Q2sP/18705dbe9d.jpg - Selling for 2 keys 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10670553 - Selling for 2 keys 1 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10546038 - 2 keys, unsold, has now sold

Bear in mind:

Most cant sell above 2.5 keys

Some are selling for under 2.5 keys but still aren't selling

A few less sell it for 2-2.5 successfully.

A few have no offers at all.

I'd like to draw your attention to this whole quicksell business if you're actually even reading my proof.

http://puu.sh/2PZWs/3d5bb43810.png

We don't even know what a quicksell is. If someone sells a g. dragon born for 3 keys, and someone else for 2.8 keys, is that a quicksell? What happens when nobody sells for above 2.5 keys very successfully at all, but quicksellers are buying or at least have interest at 2 keys? This is in part the crux of my argument for this price drop.

If I can't find proof of buyers (other than quicksellers), yet no-one can sell at the current price, then what?

Newer proof:

http://puu.sh/2Q2sP/18705dbe9d.jpg - Selling for 2 keys 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10670553 - Selling for 2 keys 1 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10358047 - Current offer of 2 keys 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10658131 - unsold at bp.tf prices, no offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10660936 - unsold at bp.tf prices

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10638146 - no offers

Case of bonkers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10672551 - unsold at 3 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10318201 - still unsold at 3 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10475124 - he really wants 3 keys