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Ok, I closed the last suggestion because there were some thoughts that the range should be lowered a bit because of the idea of a slight overpay in unusual values.
This is a 3 month old price for the vivid hallmark. Because there are not a ton of trades up yet, it makes it a bit more tricky to get loads of proof, but because the first trade has been up for a while, there are many many offers that help to backup what people would pay for it.
Apparently, it looked like my suggestion would have passed since it had a 63% vote approval and I had good proof of what I was saying, but one sour grape always tends to spoil everything. So since that one would have passed most likely, this one should be even better since I fixed the range to account for overpayment.
So here I am reposting this even though I own one now (I bought one of the 3 on the market at 3.5 buds value)
1 trade has been up for a while (the owner seems pretty set on getting 5 buds for it), but here are some of the notable offers that are more recent within the last few weeks.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6532729
(Asking for 5 buds in value, all offers were rejected by the owner.)
Vivid Backwards Ballcap - 4.2-4.8 buds
2 buds pure + Vintage Bills - 3.9-4 buds
Scorching Flames Scotch Bonnet - 3.3-4.2 buds
Sunbeams Demo Fro - 4.2-4.5 buds
Sunbeams Stout Shako - 4.4-4.7 buds
Vivid Plasma Tyrant's Helm - 4.1-4.6 buds
Holiday Headcase + 9 keys - 3.4 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10593578
This other trade is newer, and has fewer offers because of it. (The one I bought)
(Asking for 4 buds)
Blizzardy Storm Tyrant's Helm - 2.5-2.7 buds (Rejected)
Sold for a Vivide Plasma Tavish Crown, 22 keys, and black essential accessories.
1 very new trade up within the last day:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10769685
Offered a Holiday Headcase (3 buds) currently, no answer from owner yet.
Most on TF2 Price Check also agree this should be somewhere around 3.5-4.5 based on comments for several months.
http://www.tf2pricecheck.net/Thread-PC-Vivid-Plasma-Hustler-s-Hallmark?page=2
These are the comments in the previous suggestion someone made about overpay values.
Vivid Backwards Ballcap: 4.5 at middle range, 4.05 w/ overpay.
Scorching Flame Scotch Bonnet: 3.7 at middle range, 3.3 w/ overpay.
Sunbeams Demo Fro: 4.3 at middle range, 3.9 w/ overpay.
Sunbeams Stout Shako: 4.5 at middle range, 4.05 w/ overpay.
Vivid Plasma Tyrant's Helm: 4.3 at middle range, 3.9 w/ overpay.
Originally I had set the new price to be 3.6-4.0 buds, but I've since adjusted it to account for overpay in unusuals at 3.5-3.9. This should be much more accurate. The prices I used were the average of the low and high range of the items offered.
An update to the third trade...
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10769685
Was offered also a Green Energy Tavish Crown (2.9-3.5 buds) + Gen Cape of Scotland (.75 key) + 2 keys that was rejected.
The item was traded to this guy (http://backpack.tf/id/redered)
He had 7 bill's hats in his backpack at the time, and then was down to 3 bills after acquiring the hat. Also had an unusual worth around a bud that was no longer in his backpack. Even if I'm speculating, I'd guess he sold off at least 3 buds worth of items, if not 4. Looks like the guy who sold it also wanted DOTA items back in return and it appears they were part of the exchange, so it's hard to say exactly what he got in return.
"Was offered also", this isn't really a 100% deal then is it? Not to sounds mean but a suggested price is for something that is "sold" for that price; I'm not trying to negative in any way (Unusual's need a lot of help keeping track of) but the third trade as an offer, doesn't really support your previous evidence.
Its close to a given price, but still "in the clouds", so to speak. A deal update would more than definitely provide enough evidence though.