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Vivid Snaggle, currently 1.4-1.9 buds - 4 month old price!
Re-suggested with new range!
Two currently open outpost trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10679123 - 2 days old. B/O: 3 buds
Offers:
-Smoking Milkman (1.4-1.8) + sweets
Here's the main source of proof:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9212479 - 2 months old, old C/O: 2 buds pure
Offers:
-Strange Festive Scattergun (2.6-2.8 buds) 3 days ago
-Smoking Bubble Pipe (1.8-2.2 buds) 1 week ago [1.6-2 counting unusual overpay]
-2 buds pure 4 weeks ago
-Green Confetti Safe 'n' Sound (1.1-1.4 buds) + Peace Sign Carouser's Capotain (15-19 keys) = 1.8-2.3 buds 1 month ago [1.6-2 counting unusual overpay]
-Steaming Your Worst Nightmare (1.2-1.6 buds) + 8 keys + Team Captain (5-5.66 ref) + S. Shotgun (1.75 keys) + S. Ambassador (1 key) = 1.7-2.1 buds 1 month ago [1.5-1.9 counting unusual overpay]
Old trade:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10398479 - 2 weeks ago
Offered a Max's Head (2.2-2.4 buds) for the hat + 2.5 keys in items = 2.1-2.3 buds for the hat alone (1 week ago)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10457712 - 1 week ago
Sold for TF Logo Le Party Phantom (2-2.2 buds) + sweets
Conclusion:
People have offered 2 buds multiple times, and on two occasions even more than 2 buds. Thus, the high end should be 2.2 buds. The SF Scatter may be an out-lier. After unusual overpay calculation, only one offer is below 1.8 buds. That's why 1.8 should be the bottom range.
If you see that I've missed something or made a mistake, let me know! Thanks.
Also-thanks to Back in Black for finding another link and suggesting a better range, along with がんばらない~shenanigans.