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Closed and reopened, due to previous range being 4.5 keys.
Unsold:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10749151 Unsold at 5 keys after 3 days
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067991433 Unsold at 5 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10757745 Unsold at 5 keys after 3 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10736766 Selling 4 keys 3 ref no bites
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10801824 Selling 5 keys, no bites after 1 day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10770745 Unsold @ 5 keys, after 3 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10757745 Unsold @ 5 keys (look in his backpack, still there)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10454744 Selling at 4 keys + 4 ref, got tired of trying to sell at 5 keys (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10835187)
Bought/Offered:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10806899 Sold for 4 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10706119 Offers around the 4-4.5 key mark
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10599616 Lots of offers around the 4.5 key mark (many are old)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10829714 Offer of 4 keys + 2.66, seller is considering
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10521452 Offers to sell for 5 and less
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10768879 Offer to sell below 5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10536628 Offer to sell for 4 keys + 3 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10454744 Offer to sell for 22 ref ~ 4.4 keys
It is becoming hard to sell for 5 keys, as there are many unsolds at that price, and there is not much demand for this items. Sellers are willing to go lower than 5 keys, and the current range does not reflect this.
Buyers offer at most 4.5 keys in items, rarely offers of 4.5 pure are seen. There are not many of this item so I apologize for the small amount of proofs.
" http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10749151 Unsold at 5 keys after 3 days" - Unbumped the entire time, calling the availability of the trader into question.
" http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067991433 Unsold at 5 keys" - User has been offline for 3 days straight
" http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10736766 Selling 4 keys 3 ref no bites" - Interest in the trade, the issue is that the user has been offline since he made the trade.
" http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10770745 Unsold @ 5 keys, after 3 days" Item not in backpack, exactly when the user traded it and for what is in question
" http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10757745 Unsold @ 5 keys (look in his backpack, still there)" - Same link as third
" http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10454744 Selling at 4 keys + 4 ref, got tired of trying to sell at 5 keys (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10835187)" Link doesn't match what you're describing, I think you mean this one - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10837911
Thanks for correcting me with the last one. With the 4th trade, the inviswatch in his backpack has the same amount of seconds cloaked as the one in the trade. I don't think its a coincidence. It's also hard to find more proof, there aren't too many of these around.
I've scanned over his backpack twice, including doing a search using his steam inventory. We're talking about [TBK]UnloseHunter, right?
Anyway, I opened up all the asking 5 key invis watch trades.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10788212
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10803374
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10757745
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10801824
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10837911
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10837443
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10836152
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10835642
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10830767
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10840482
Based on what you've shown, I'm currently unconvinced, but either way keeping an eye on these should let us know if they're still selling at 5.
Link 1 sold
Link 2 sold
Link 4: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10807423 Added 3 keys for a black Bill's. The recent Bill's suggestion calls painted Bill's into question, but that's still valuing the S Invis at 5 keys.
Link 5 (4 keys 4 ref): Sold
Link 7: Sold both
Link 10: Sold
Definitely too early to take 5 keys out of range
http://trade.tf/price/212/11
Trade.tf validates a change but the proof may not be good per Vincents comments.
Now is better but why is there the proof for selling for 4 keys when its not in the range ?
The trend for the suggestion is that the price is being lowered, and that reflects the trend. It is somewhat of an outlier, but still should be considered as a lower priced sell.
your link 3 got 2 adds for 5 keys, and you have to show proof that 4.6 keys is not possible if you want to remove it from the range
I don't see where you get your 4.4 keys from, and I don't see any sellers for that amount (except for me :P)
Here is my trade:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10847469
I was quickselling it, and it sold within an hour.
probably 4 keys and 4 ref is a good price because most people use the dead ringer or cloak and dagger but it still isn't the least popular item crate 50