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~65.5 keys
stormy
Unusual Troublemaker's Tossle Cap Stormy Storm
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This price should have not went down. Proof wasn't bad, it was just the math. Plenty of offers, plenty of desire, and I can prove sales.


This is an exact copy-paste of the proof on the last trade, then taken and re edited to fix the math


With buds only recently changed, all offers are taken at the point of buds being 21.5 keys, as they have been recently.

Declines at 2.7-2.8 = 2.7-2.8 is invalid. There are plenty of declined 2.7 offers.


Offerred on a Blizzardy Tossle, added 6 keys. Contacted owner to prove this:

Reverse overpay: 2.9-3.6 (price of Blizz) - .28 (pure) - (2.7-3.2 x .9 = 2.43-2.88) = .19-.44, or an average of .315 bud difference. Based on current values, this suggests a range of 3-3.5

OP: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10400296 (asks for 1:1, in the end adds 6 keys: http://imgur.com/a/1aRYR )


Server offer and sale of a Planets Helmet Without a Home + Stormy Tossle for a Stormy Bonk Boy. http://imgur.com/a/hNd92 - At current prices - (.84-1.1 + 2.7-3.2) = .9+2.95 = 3.85 x .9 = 3.47 buds - the price of Stormy Storm Bonk Boy (3.4-3.8), the difference is .07-.33 buds, or .2 buds. This suggest the range of 2.9-3.4


1) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10079039 -- Lots of offers.

P.E bonk helm (2.5-3, old. At current price 2.25-2.7, seems to be a lowball)

2.7 pure, declined

steaming wraith wrap (2.7-3 x .9 = 2.43-2.7, declined)

Smoking stash (offer on steamchat -- 3.1 buds x .9 = 2.8 buds, declined)

Lowballers, classic outpost stuff.


2) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10617800 --

EOF fez (3.3-3.5 x .9 = 3-3.15 buds

stormy engie cap + SF rocket + S. gunslinger. .65-.84 + 1.9-2.1 + 1.3-1.4 = 3.85-4.34 x .9 = 3.47-3.9 appears to be an outlier, but where the hell previous suggester got 3.3 from I have no clue.

Nothing else notable


3) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8939556 --

Peace modest (2.7-3.4 x .9 = 2.43-3.06, or 2.75 buds, rejected)

flip flops + big kill (2-2.5 + .65-.7 = 2.65-3.2, or 2.925 buds x .95 = 2.8, rejected (mixed offer, big kill is a promo)

3 buds pure


4) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10671117 --

stormy hardcounter if seller adds like 17 keys (3.3-3.8 x .9 = 2.97-3.42 - .8 = 2.2-2.6, considered a lowball)


5) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10599856 --

EOF dreadknot + big kill + V. luger + SF nade (1.9 + .67 + .43 + .52 = 3.52 buds x .9 = 3.17 buds)

Other lowballs


5) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10681465 -- No new or notable offers


6) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10502998 --

Stormy Storm Hard Counter 1:1 - declined, 3.3-3.8 x .9 = 2.98-3.42, or about 3.2 buds

Add to a Cloudy Moon Dixie - 3.4-4.4 x .9 = 3.06-3.96 buds - unknown sweets

2.7 pure, declined

Nuts KE if he adds 3.1-3.5 x .9 = 2.8-3.15 - unknown, rejected


7) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10597372 --

46 keys + steaming festivizer = 60-62 keys or 2.8-2.9 buds, rejected


Nuts crone if he adds 3.1-3.5 x .9 = 2.8-3.15 - unknown, rejected


Basically any offer that was "okay" was put here, but those were all rejected, unworthy of a price change.

Offers of 2.7 and 2.8 are rejected, a sale at 3.25, another at 3.1, and looks like the old range was just fine. even rounding down on the sale that puts it at the previous range, and that's what I'd like to set it back to.

    ..

    Dare you copy paste my proof.

      And flag my comment because you stole my 1 hour work without telling me.

        I also did not flag this. Or downvote it. And you spent 1 hour? This took me about 6 total hours over 3 days. I had to contact previous owners to get me trade screenshots.

      I took your lists, re-organized them, removed the opinions and other comments, fixed the math, and argued that your own proof didn't seem to make sense.


      This proof is basically 20% yours, 80% my own. That 20% being solely the list of the offers you posted.

        He copied your proof, but all that really did was save him from copy pasting the links, because there are only a few tossles on the market, he'd end up using all the same trades anyways. Honestly unlike keys where there are new trades every second, he only has a select pool of trades to choose from and probably would've had all the same trades anyways, he just added more in and redid the math to what he thought was right.