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Proofs below.
Difficult to find this without being in a set or painted; Forgive me if my proof is somewhat lacking. Most traders are trying to highball (Key or more), but here's what my search turned up.
16 pages on Outpost; 6 of which are never bumped.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/111171237/10
Plenty unsold in the classifieds, although some have paint.
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/977/6/0
Hype has died down, but the price didn't.
Unsold:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10803195 --- 4.33, 6 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10919442 --- Buyer offer of 4.33 rejected; claimed to have got one for 4 refined, then resold.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10826424 --- 4.33, 5 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10795737 --- 4.33, 1 week
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10817311 --- 4.33, 6 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10790832 --- Offer of Saharan Spy set (~ 4.33 ref), rejected
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10772755 --- 4.33, 1 week
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10847906 --- Rejected 4 ref; still unsold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10610615 --- Unsold after multiple offers; 2 weeks old... Autobumpers.
Sold:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10942561 --- Rejected initial 4 ref offer, later sold for 4 ref.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10864288 --- 4 Refined
Note: Should I include painted items as proof, provided I subtract the paint from the value? Anyway, vote, comment, and counter-proof at your leisure!
EDIT: I'd Like to point out, another guy made a similar suggestion roughly a week ago, with 77%
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5191497eba2536985200000e
Maybe more sold at 4 ref would help
I thought about that, but 4 ref is already in current range. I'm just proving they don't sell for 4.33 now.
Or at least trying.
4 ref is still very doable. I had two buyers at 4 ref the other day and even sold it once for a Dirty Hi-5 Taunt before the buyer wanted to trade back.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10961301
Thank you for your proof, my friend!
A range is fine and allows for peaceful flexibility.
I won't argue that a range is good... but I couldn't find anyone selling for cheaper than 4 ref, and 4.33 sellers are failing.
It would seem that a range for this item, at least for now, is illogical.
I bought my one for 3.66 ref. a week ago.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10784039
Although I appreciate this, you may have just gotten lucky; One trade isn't enough to set up a lower range. Although, if you have more proof, I'll reconsider.
I know, just wanted to show that it maybe was a bit possible below 4 ref, tried buyers?
I couldn't find anyone successfully buying below 4 ref, but I didn't look as thoroughly as I did the sellers.
I took a look, and I tend to agree with you.
And I found this guy: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11028797 - Buying for 4 ref, quickbuy?
Perhaps... Let's see if he re-sells.
He actually doesn't have one in his backpack.
He only had 4 ref. and bought this one instead and wants to resell: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11030199
Thought I might put a few more trades out there that agree with the 4 refined, I agree there are not many buyers going for 4.33, even most sellers are hardly aiming for the high end of the 4-4.33 range.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10982179 4 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10699212 4.11
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11005094 4.33 while being painted zepheniah's greed, still going for high end.
Although there are those still selling for the higher price, there are few.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10826424 Buyer offers a tosslecap painted australium gold approximately 5- 5.33, but the fact remains about the original price.