Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 5.11–5.33 ref

Actually there is some logic about not using tf2finance as a link for proof, since Vincent himself commented that the site really is not that reliable tracking key sales.

And again you are wrong. We are allowed to use it as proof, some other admin or Vincent changed that.

I mentioned it shouldn't be used for the few days after the server crash. Otherwise, I'm pretty sure I've typically been positive about the use of tf2finance. It shouldn't be leaned on EXCLUSIVELY, but so long as it continues to depict a result similar to trading experiences and what other sites depict and people don't try to jump on single-instance fluctuations, I've always felt it works as an indication of trade server activity, something which doesn't have any form of hard proof otherwise.

Base64 has always held the hard operation of the site close to his chest, so no one can state how reliable it is at tracking key sales. Accusations of it being unreliable or easily manipulated have, as far as I've seen, come from random uninformed commenters and spread from there. I've never seen anyone demonstrate an ability to manipulate it, while Base has shown that he himself reviews the data for any odd instances. As far as reliability goes, it has always sat reasonably close to what the rest of the trading world depicts in both its earbud and key results.

tldr: No one has ever demonstrated that tf2finance is unreliable or open to manipulation. There is ultimately nothing wrong with its use, so long as it used strictly as support and isn't leaned on exclusively.

The direct problem to that, Vincent, is that with as few key sales as have happened recently on Outpost, It is easier than pie to manipulate numbers so they will increase on TF2Finance. Not to mention that those who use it as proof to raise key prices list it on the top of the suggestion, as if it above anything else confirms a price bump is in order. Never mind the fact that there are issues with scrap.tf used as proof, as it almost never has keys in it's repertoire, whilst TF2 Warehouse, which is substantially more reliable with key inventory, is completely overstocked at a Warehouse value of 5 refined... ACCORDING TO THIS SITE, Over 12,000 keys in the warehouse, and completely overstocked. As far as I am concerned, scrap.tf should not be a link of proof.

I agree on scrap.tf, as has been mentioned in the past, people pay a premium to avoid dealing with traders. Warehouse is similar in that regard, and similarly problematic in representing keys in that it's also constantly overstocked on metal, making direct key<->metal transactions through warehouse exceedingly difficult.

I respectfully disagree with the ease of manipulating finance. One part because Base has proven that he actively looks over the data for potentially underhanded activity, but primarily because as often as people have claimed it, absolutely no one has been able to demonstrate doing so in either direction. One would thing that with so many people wanting to discredit the site, something so easy to manipulate would have someone demonstrate doing so to put a permanent end to the site's legitimacy.

Regardless, that's all a bit of a tangent. The primary thing I wanted to clarify was the claim that I had called the site unreliable.

I have told you time and time again that Warehouse is used for MUCH MORE than key to metal or metal to key transfers. It is also used for getting regular old items for keys, and you won't experience overpay like a lot of traders want you to do with keys.

I'm sorry if I implied otherwise, that's not my intent. I fully agree that the use of warehouse is for far more than key<->metal. When I mention the issue in terms of key to metal or metal to key transfers, I mean in terms of warehouse's applicability to a key suggestion. I do not mean to diminish the more general usefulness of warehouse in any way.

But Warehouse can be used in an applicable argument about this topic.. One does not simply look over 12000 keys in stock at Warehouse, which is a very sizable chunk of the key market, and then turn to scrap.tf and claim that based off what they sell for on scrap.tf, that it outweighs Warehouse evidence toward keys. Look towards the two recent Bills votes and you'd see the folly of using that site as proof.

Just because "no one has ever demonstrated that tf2finance is unreliable or open to manipulation" does not mean it has not. Moreover, no one has ever fully demonstrated that tf2finance is NOT unreliable or open to manipulation

Tf2finance used as counterproof on other suggestion = Very trustworth, should start using more often

Tf2finance used as proof for rasing price= Unreliable, should definetly not be used, downvote

The logic amuses me

on the contrary, this is counter proof against the other suggestion which is attempting to change the low end by 2 scrap as well as changing the high end by 1 scrap.

wrong - the counter on the other was that the low end was set too high. that's all. this suggestion is spot on as far as tf2finance is concerned.

I was saying as thats what the community says, not me

apologies if i misunderstood.

Aren't we not supposed to have two concurrent suggestions?

No, counter suggestions are allowed...

Oh. Alright.

You cant put scrap.tf as proof

why not ? fock da police

because Geel9 said so...

Geel gets really mad ;)

I did it once to mess with him and when it got accepted he flipped the shit and removed the item from his buying/selling list for like a week. :D

If you're reading this, Geel, I still love you! <3

As said below and other places, scrap.tf is not reliable because people go there for convenience.

Thank you for clearing that up; you saved me from having to draw out this long explaination.

It isn't even all that convenient, it's always sold out at 5.33...

Sorry if i spam .. but i see that many people buy for 5.11ref and above

maybe there is too many at 5.11 ? i kinda think its a "quicksell"

anyway, many buyers above 5.11 so im not going to vote yet

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11012861/

Already bought one key at 5.22. Hoping to get more, soon.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10833610

As it says in the description, I've bought 6 and sold 13 at the prices shown. Hopefully more soon.

Hope this might help your suggestion, old sport.

Thanks

Outpost: "All of the people on here are selling keys for 1-2 scrap more than the price!"

Backpack.tf: "Really? Then our price will raise."

Outpost: "Well then now all of the people on here will sell it for 1-2 scrap more than the new price."

Backpack.tf: "Then we shall raise it again!"

The vicious cycle.

Actually, this article explains it's not that: http://tf2finance.com/2013_03/

I liked your comment because you have read the article, but base's argument only works if the buyers are perfectly informed and have reviewed every single trade offering the still lower price. Also, if you only want one key, you tend to be less regarding than if you want, say, 7-8. So yeah, while not stupid, Base's explanation in unsatisfying to me.

Also, about his attack on bp generating positive feedback and comparing it to Reuters: while it is in a way true to say that neither of them is the CAUSE of feedback, base seems to present feedback as cause-to-effect, while it is really a cyclic thing, a chain in which bp/Reuters represent one link, and play an information role. But traders wouldn't need bp to see the key prices all over trading sites anyway. The BIG problem is with the feedback, which is perpetuated by collective shortsightedness, and of which bp.tf is but a window, diffusing the craze to more and more people. But rest assured, unless keys get discounted in the MCStore, they won't return to the old 2.66.

Also, metal has not really "dropped" (saying so as such is actually untrue), because ref prices have been barely affected. It has only lost value on the grey market, which imo should not be used as a value-setting reference outside of unusuals and buds, because whether you like it or not, it's only a footnote in all the tf2 trade outside of the big big things.

Finally, I'd like to say that it is blatantly wrong to assert that "Supply and Demand" magically command prices. Prices are not heaven sent, and pricechecking is not a test of reading tea leaves on tf2op. Prices are set by real people who don't always decide in purely rational terms, and are usually short-sighted. Also, both the S and D sides are interdependent : if people still buy keys at 5 ref, it's because they really "need" them, or expect to profit later from them.

Instead of crying over keys you should start seeing that an incredible opportunity has arisen in the metal trade, where you now have a 5+ ref space to maneuver where you previously only had 2.5-3 before people asked for keys. And in the worst of cases, if a critical mass is reached, maybe ToD tickets could become an interesting alternative, as they function similarly to keys. These last statements are fairly bold, so take them with a grain of salt.

http://trade.tf/price/5021/6

Traders have finally moved off 5 ref. Now, onto 6 ref.

Too many people are still buying for 5 refined. all of my keys have been bought and sold for 5 ref. the price shouldn't change, its already too messed up.

agree jest sold 6 keys for 5.44 in 2-3 sec1!!!

Great proof in my opinion, upvote.

Can't we just keep the key price ?

you gotta kinda deal with it. backpack.tf dont set prices. they display prices that are right and common on tf2autpost and all. keeping the key price would confuse everyone

Are you serious? How in the living pootis would keeping a key price be considered "confusing"?

To be honest, the only thing that confuses me is that people are making constant suggestions to pretty much only increase the price for the key. Makes me worried. But yeah, it's tragic. Most people are to desperate/impatient to wait to get a key for a good price.

Keys can still be bought at 5 ref.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10733878

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10609786

you failed to read my notes Hatch

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10684955

I am now buying 5.22, my price fluctuates, god damn.

hahahahahaha. You're right, I didn't read that. I only bothered to check what people were buying for and what they had in stock.

Anyway... Seriously? You don't want your trade to be used by backpack.tf? First off, what are you going to do about it? Sue me? Your trade is out there, dude.

Secondly, why do you care about your trade being used as proof? It couldn't possibly be that you want backpack.tf prices to be lower so you can shark people out of keys, could it? Nooooo, of course not.

Thirdly, I just label the trades as they are when I find them. I can't edit my comment now.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edit: It seems you've moved your trade here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11037829

Also, here's a quote from your old trade: "Price conclusion: Keys are difficult to buy at 511, and SUPER EASY at 5.33." So I guess I can count you as a supporter then?

1.) Sue you, no, but I can asure you that you are like the majority of tf2outpost, can't read notes, makes you look horrible.

2.)Ok, jumping to conclusions, smart huh? just as smart as 3/4 of your suggestions for keys not being accepted, but you still suggest anyway.

but, you know, you own 128, maybe you are purposely trying to raise prices? To sell for more? Nooooo, of course not.

3.) its your fault you couldn't read.

4.) changing trades doesn't matter, I do that a lot, explain how that would change the slightest thing.

5) I never said i was a unsupporter, look back at what i said. Why do you make stuff up now? Keys are difficult to buy at 5.11 and super easy at 5.33. Of coarse, stop trying to change the subject.

Not to mention, scrap.tf and tf2finance can easily be manipulated. Does not count as proof.

Not going to bother responding to the rest but scrap.tf buys keys below market price and sells above for obvious profit, if you didnt know that then wow. It isnt manipulation because people sell there knowing their prices for quick metal

and tf2 finance, if you actually knew how the site works you would know it would take a longgggg time to change it's price. Sure just feel free to discount all the other proof he has other than finance.

Lol, do you even know what you are talking about? Also, disliking my comment is immature when you are wrong.

Right when the mods decreased the price to 4.66-5 ref, scrap.tf immediately lowered their buying price to 4.66, that easy.

Same goes for tf2 finance, prices been more stable (not saying they are) for about 2 weeks, surprising, same dates when mods don't accept these suggestions

Ok, lets talk about proof huh

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5178b190ba25362d57000011

Your point is?

lol I didnt dislike your comment, i dont dislike/like most things cuz i dont see the point of it.

Again scrap.tf buys lower than market price and sells higher, its their 24/7 service, and people know this. It isnt manipulation, as people who need some quick metal go to them as it's quick and easy.

Tf2finance reflects the average prices which the promos are going for, as your comment "easily manipulated", to do that it would take a long time which isnt worth it.

lol you didnt scroll down and look at the added on proof from others, there is like walls of additional proof near the bottom :L

Oh my god, whats even the point explaining to you

You can be anything on the internet, some people choose to be stupid.

Scrap.tf buys lower market price huh? Tell me, what price do they buy hats and weapons at, the only quicksells they buy are other items.

No shit it goes for average, and your comment makes no sense, its completely possible.

And don't forget the loads of counterproof > proof

Still not even much proof in the other comment, might want to check again.

Seriously, why do you even reply to this?

Well if you have done your research they provide free scrap banking, hats is for the price of a rec for it's service and it's well known that scrap.tf is their full time job so they need to make profit somewhere. ie buying lower for promos and selling higher, people go to them because they want a quick key or some quick metal. (they even state this on their site "free scrap banking" but it doesnt mean the others are the same, learn to read please before calling someone stupid :D)

You really should look up how things work before you decide on calling people stupid.

If you actually have looked (click on the show hidden comments) there is quite abit of proof and the counter proofs have been half arsed lol

I reply to somewhat try to stop ignorant people from being even more ignorant.

Again scrap.tf offers a service 24/7 and people know this and go to them when they want quick metal/keys how is that hard to understand?? so im not sure what you are on about "manipulation"

another bait and switch. someone puts up a high range that everyone will get up and arms about while someone else puts in the old steady range of +scrap that will go by undetected. the fact is: TRADE.TF LISTS IT AT 5.11 BY AUTOMATICALLY MONITORING THOUSANDS OF TRADES, IT HAS MORE PROOF THAN ANY OF YOU COULD HOPE TO FIND, AND WAS LAST UPDATED TODAY.

The same could be said about tf2finance. They're basically the same, save one difference: tf2finance only takes pure trades into account (i.e. keys/refined), and trade.tf takes pure trades and trades involving items.

Yeah, and most traders overpay in items -_-

You have to understand. Trade.tf includes every trade that involves keys being traded. From the trade where someone is selling some 5 refined hat for a key, to the trade where someone is paying for a key with items, to someone who is buying a key with refined. It includes them all. The most common of these trades is the first one. Often times you can get away with selling 4.66-5 refined items for a key. tf2finance only includes key:metal transfers. That's why trade.tf has been lower than tf2finance.

as an absolute number, i agree trade.tf can show lower values. but as an indicator of trend, i think it is very useful

plus finance and trade.tf are just a half scrap off as Swag keeps tuning the model.

Show me all the trades that trade.tf monitored. Oh wait they aren't public. Neither is TF2F.

Neither website is adequate proof on this one, as proof OR counterproof.

Just to play devil's advocate, steam trades aren't public. Tf2outpost trades are just trades ads, nothing proves they actually occur at the demanding price.

Do you ask every buyer to show the screenshot of his trade ? Oh wait you don't.

Now, I'm going to say that trade.tf can perfectly be used to gather evidence for backpack.tf, go to the item price page and click on the 'Buyers' green line for the fair deals:

http://trade.tf/price/5021/6

This will return the list of items being traded at or below the current backpack.tf price.

If everyone provided screenshots my job would in fact be much easier. Having to look for "added" comments and comparing user packs is quite boring, and spotting a fake screenshot is a lot easier.

And trade.tf and it's buyer search will no doubt be a useful evidence gathering tool, once there is a way to filter out the key-metal trades from the key-item trades.

Fair enough. Let me just add that it's already the only tool that allows to find closed tf2oupost trades.

Then just disable voting on key prices, because they will never be accurate. Or voting at all, proof is never good. Or the whole backpack.tf model and lets go back to spreadsheets.

Impending warning, cleverpun doesn't allow fun or dissenting opinions in his dictatorship.

i think we may finally be seeing the twilight of the painful and innaccurate suggestion process full of outpost proof and dubious voting especially since the community has gone away from being a barter economy (it was so refreshing to do some trading on completely unpriced items such such as the steam trading cards)

if we can't barter anymore then i much prefer the scientific methods being applied by trade.tf and tf2finance.

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/1556-suggestion-remove-voting-on-suggestions/

Use all the charged, whiny language you like, but everyone read the site rules and agreed to them before using the suggestion section.

Just because people are selling them at a higher price doesn't mean that the base price of the item deserves to go up. Also the fact that you have 128 of them isn't helping. It's about time for the price of keys to go down.

I included buyers only. These people aren't selling keys. They're practically begging people to sell them keys for these high prices.

Also: "It's about time for the price of keys to go down."

Did you mean that most people would like the price of keys to go down, or did you mean that the price of keys is, in fact, going down? If the latter is the case, than it simply needs to be updated on here. And if that's the case, you're going to need proof that keys have in fact gone down. Got any?

counter:

http://trade.tf/deals/search/Sell/All/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key/all/1

Search links aren't proof. I would link you the topic on that, but I can't find it anywhere.

Edit: Never mind. http://steamcommunity.com/groups/meetthestats/discussions/0/846940249193839401/

Do you really think I have the time to post 11 pages of individual trades?

And those search links give the trade and tells you how much the person is buying/selling for, unlike outpost, where you have to open the trade to look at the desc.

Was trade.tf the way you were getting all of your proof/counterproof from a few weeks ago?

Nope, there's another website....>:D

Lol, I knew it was impossible to find more than one of things an hour without help.

The other site is basically trade.tf....but it filters out paint and has unusual pricing.

i like how someone downvoted all my comments.

"i like how someone downvoted all my comments."

Well, key price setters are pretty damn petty. Much like bp.tf mods and their constant use of warnings for anything they don't approve with (read: everything they don't like and/or hurts their easily hurt feelings).

All I can say is that if there are bots buying at 5.33, the price could even be higher that the suggested range, as bots are fast and take no effort, proving that the people selling for lower are ignorant.

This is highly accurate and deserves to be upvoted and accepted but sorry my friend even with 100% upvotes there is almost no chance that it will get accepted :(

I would say keys are about midway now to crashing the whole market.

I guess I'm just gonna stock-up on Refined until the Recession.

>throwing around big words to sound smart

Well, the logic of his cliche have an uncanny resemblance to the sort of techniques employed by psychologists and analytical spokespeople to predict market trends.

Edited to please Hatch and Rocket...

I don't think "parameters" means what you think it means.

Parameters can either mean limits or logic. I'm using the latter term, and yes, I know what I say. I fixed it so as to clear the fog, metaphorically speaking.

Really? They resemble an uncanny resemblance?

Hatch doesn't know the word recession? Really dude? If you think that is a big word you need to finish school.

>Of course he knows what that means

If you did, you wouldn't be calling it a big word.

>Sarcasm really couldn't be more clear when greentext is involved

I see you don't understand the word sarcasm either.

>referring to the original comment

XD Nice meme arrows lel you so funy see you on 9gag 4chan heheh looll xDD

http://imgur.com/2ySVZwq

Sold at 5 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11061509

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11061445

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11060331

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11060331-Key is with another user, found some leftover refined that was owned by the current key owner

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11056787-4 ref, a bit of an outlier

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11055463

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11053972

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11053832

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11053625

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11052628-Another 4 ref outlier

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11052008-4.66, a bit below range

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11050851

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11049918

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11047976-4 ref outlier

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11046515

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11066076

And so on. 5.00 refined is still a very viable key price, so I'll have to downvote.

Staying neutral, on that one. The problem with the buyers on the higher end is that they need very few keys and/or very quickly (there's even a bot, so yes he needs to pay 5.33 to keep working), and some are willing to go to more insane prices (that 5.44 person). $

You have done your part of the work in providing us accessible data. But pure data is meaningless without qualitative analysis, and that's also our work here. I would keep the current range for now, as 5.33 buyers still seems to be an "extreme measure" price to get quick keys.

Except 2.66 refined is increased price. When I started playing keys were still around 2.44-2.55 keys between the Summer event last year and Halloween of last year with keys slowly creeping upon 2.66 refined around August-September. Before that based on a lot of people's recollection keys were 2.33 refined or less and SPUF (Steam powered user forums) had a rule about no one being allowed to sell keys over 2.33 refined. When trading first started in 2010 keys were going for around a refined or so. Therefore your 'non-increased' price is actually highly increased.

What are you talking about? :) I'm playing this game for years before the trade system. Thereafter I just had my hobby - open crates (opened about 1000). All weapons I have in my backpack I opened (except for 2 or 3 I have). I opened 3 unusuals.

But after !!!everybody knows what Halloween I mean!!! what backpack.tf have done with keys made my eyes pop out . ))) Several months I've voted voted voted voted against. And I saw what people suggested and after March speculators joined a crowd. And I saw it too, and tryed to do something, and Now I can't.

P.S. And cleverpun, lawyer of these speculators, :) thank you. You can hide this message and (oh my God!) warn me here too ( http://backpack.tf/vote/id/519a9a7dba2536dd55000004#519e04564bd7b8d155000003_row ) . I wish you have a girlfrend you can every day to warn. Because backpack.tf dead to me.

when i started trading, keys were 1.25-.140 usd in cash, and even dropped to 1.25 or so. market has changed, and so have prices.

Why is 5-5.22 the "default" price? Backpack.tf isn't a bible.

Also, what makes a price the "right" price? Is it whatever you'd like the price to be?

Now that is uncalled for.

'Owns 128' Your a nice guy

You're*