Suggestion: Strange Stickybomb Launcher at 0.33–0.66 ref

Price Suggestion

~9.16 ref

126 votes up

13 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Sat, 25 May 13 06:17:45 +0000 by [GIRL] Mr. Bucket.

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Comments

6 months old price: O_O

Sold for 1 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5729917

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9749153 - sold multiple for 0.66 and some offers of 1 ref

Sold for 0.66 ref:

http://i.imgur.com/ot8OFIZ.png - sold mine within a day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9580217 - sold at least 2

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9422510 - buyer for 0.66

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9218538 - multiple adds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9148382 - multiple adds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8298207 - lots of adds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10849236 - sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8919561 - added

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7022886 - sold loads (13) - look at all the adds - some recent?

Sold for 0.55:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10307318 - sold

Sold for 0.44:

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9421777 - buyer for 0.44

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10781933 - adds for 0.44

And just for kicks: http://trade.tf/price/207/11 (range 0.33-0.5)

That's why I said "just for kicks". I would never use it as proof alone.

Oh, alright, I understand. Anyway, good proof, upvote. I can easily sell s. sticky launchers for this.

ShredderZX, please stop spreading false rumors.

The prices are inferred from user backpack monitoring:

http://trade.tf/faq#spreadsheet-work

Really? Sorry about that, maybe I should go back to math class. Didn't really read carefully. Heh.

No problem, I guess with the good deals feature, it's easy to make the confusion. I've been trying to improve my communication so there's no misunderstandings (I've added a banner to the spreadsheet). I'm always open to suggestions.

Talking about the price suggestion, the range could be 0.33-0.44 or 0.33-0.55.

However, I think it's brilliant to use 0.33-0.66, it leaves more room for traders to negotiate. Small ranges are unpractical for negotiation.

Yup, and I think putting 0.44 or 0.55 as part of a range is awkward. Very few sellers are actually pricing at that. 0.66 ref is a much more user-friendly price. The range of 0.33-0.5 would be based on averages right? Not medians?

Well the range on my website (trade.tf) is based on medians, the min and the max represent the uncertainty interval, and the blue line represents the most likely correct value.

So yeah keep in mind that my ranges are not negotiation ranges, they're uncertainty ranges (error margins if you like). I don't offer a range since I'm not a pricing guide telling people what price to trade for, I'm more of a measurement of the data and it's up to people to negotiate around the values they see to maximize their profits.

For more discussion, let's take this offline to the forums (either backpack or trade). We don't want to hijack this price suggestion.

And whats the confidence interval set at? 1 SD? 2 SD? Or should I not even think of it as confidence intervals?

The confidence interval is based on all the price estimations during 24 hour window, the min is min value computed in that interval, the max is the value in that interval. And the median, is the median in that interval. So it's really a median of medians btw.

Not I'm not using a confidence interval as in probabilities since my model is not probabilistic (like a gaussian inference), it's stochastic and based on robust uncertainty.

Excellent. Thanks for that!

It's actually really easy to sell for 0.66. I don't know why but the demand for this item is pretty high.

Well, that would explain why I got 2 adds in under 5 minutes for one the other day at 1 rec.

1 rec is still in the range he proposes.

Yeah, he's just saying that 0.33 deserves to be the low end because he got added so quickly

Oh whoops i misread it. I thought he was being critical of your suggestion :3.

Yeah, I didn't actually intend to sell mine. But I was like, if someone is going to pay double its price, they can have it. And then I got added so quickly I had to see what the market price was...

http://i.imgur.com/525vdXx.jpg --> also got 0.44 for it (Haftbombenwerfer)

nice. danke.