Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 5–5.44 ref

Price Suggestion

Mann Co. Supply Crate Key

Submitted Sun, 02 Jun 13 01:19:40 +0000 by ★ Bruno

56.1%

5–5.44 ref

~64.56 ref

46 votes up

36 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Sun, 02 Jun 13 03:57:23 +0000 by A Distinctive Lack of Vincent.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Let's see... I'd appreciate no spam comments.

Sir Jon...what you are saying is that trades at 5-5.11 do not count because there are many buyers at 5.22 and above correct? But there are 5.44 buyers...so shouldn't it just be 5.44?

On to the topic of how fast these sell. The argument for how fast these sell is completly illogical. You guys are saying that 5 ref shouldn't be included in the range because it sells to fast correct? Now I want you to go on outpost selling a key for 5.33, 5.22, 5.11, and 5. Record how fast it took for someone to add you. They are the same, therefore selling at the same speed and because of that, should 5 ref and 5.33 ref not be included in the range? I think not. Why are they sold so quickly? Because keys are ALWAYS in demand.

Proof at 5/5.11 from myself:

2 days ago:

http://puu.sh/34YSH/d143f4ab81.png

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11309725 6 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11309043 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11308220 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11307600 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11306654 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11306313 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11305950 2 @ 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11304374 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11301314 4 @ 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11301160 2 @ 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11298984 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11297228 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11289992 11 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11291734 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11293918 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11295692 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11296019 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11296418 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11283188 4 @ 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11283509 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11284132 3 @ 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11280995 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11282017 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11282163 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11280993 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11279110 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11276636 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11275640 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11274149 4 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11269180 10 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11269043 5

Also, I went on a trade server today. Guy was selling keys for 5.11.

http://i.imgur.com/DMJHnth.jpg bought 4.

Now, from today:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11371572 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11370973 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11370581 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11370376 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11368453 3 @ 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11368068 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11367912 multiple @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11367853 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11367822 2 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11367501 3 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11366654 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11366023 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11364813 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11363909 2 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11363884 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11363832 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11360898 2 @ 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11360816 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11360425 2 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11360099 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11355241 2 @ 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11354271 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11354645 4 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11364288 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11340176 4 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11339888 2 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11337601 2 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11336449 2 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11336015 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11335308 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11334328 3 @ 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11348060 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11345924 2 @ 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11345604 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11344590 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11343559 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11343463 7 @ 5

1 day ago:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11329410 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11333276 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11331895 2 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11328855 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11328143 2 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11327002 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11326046 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11323710 6 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11322633 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11321668 5 @ 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11321548 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11320515 4 @ 5.11

Proof at 5/5.11 from others:

http://i.imgur.com/oXd7kNQ.jpg today

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10844530 - Selling at 5.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10722152 - buying at 5 refined has 2 new keys in his bp.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11302615 - has 2 keys in his bp, buying keys for 4.66 ref, selling for 5 ref.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11150179 - buying for 5.11 has 2 new keys in his bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11305470 - buying for 5 ref, but fairly new trade

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10904285 - buying for 5.11 ref. 2 comments that says they added, one saying he's selling 2 keys.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10957724 - Buying for 5 ref, has a comment saying he's selling 3 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11163500 - Buying for 5 ref, 4 NEW KEYS in his bp

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11127308 - Buying for 5.11 ref, has an add.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11198183 - Buying for 5.11, has a new key in his bp.

http://puu.sh/34YhQ.png

http://puu.sh/31GDr.png

http://puu.sh/2XVUQ.png

http://puu.sh/2XVWc.png

http://puu.sh/2XVWI.png

http://puu.sh/2XVX3.png

Buyers for 5.44:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11313207

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11310957

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11310707

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11306647

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11260227

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11341841

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11334777

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11310957

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11182553

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11355047

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11354621

Sold for 5.44:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11372874

Credits: Me, Final, Doopliss, Ivy-kun, and a few others.

Don't use hypothetical situations as counterproof.

I don't if im supposed to be angry or happy but upvoted for decent proof

Too wide range, only range within 1 reclaimed is accepted at backpack.tf.

And how many times you and onion knight need to know that 5 ref suggestions are worthless. They have been slammed shut so many times on your faces, moderators have clearly told you their head and yet you guys fail to accept the fact and choose to be be ************.

Well...we failed once.

Also, I like how you posted, "oh the number of keys at 5.44>5-5.33" on the failed suggestion and never actually found evidence to support this.

And about the 1 rec range, I already explained that.

lol failed once? and where is the proof as baloo requested? Why would they choose you over their fellow admin if they are accepting range beyond 1 rec?

So you can't find proof that I failed more than once so you put an "lol" in to make it appear you are right?

And the time cleverpun posted it, was there a lot of proof at 5.55? Don't think so. And his range was different than mine.

http://i.imgur.com/WXTq5Fh.jpg

I just hope that once again when this is again shut on your face, you would learn a valuable lesson. And this suggestion of yours least matters me, I sell my keys for 5.66 anyways. I just wanted to save the newbies who by seeing this suggestion, not knowing the market would sell their keys for 5 ref each and suffer loss. While traders like you will never sell their keys for 5 ref each and just continue to exploit them.

I see you modified your main proof based on my argument down below. Fine, if you're going to state that I cannot use reasonable hypothetical scenarios as counterproof (which I wasn't using as counterproof, but merely to point out a flaw in logic), then I suggest you do the same. You personally have recorded the time it takes to sell a key at 5, 5.11, 5.22 and 5.33 refined, yet your main argument focuses around that 5 refined should be reincorporated into range because it sells just as quickly as 5.33 refined. If you'd be willing to actually generate some data on this with the surplus of keys you have, then feel free to do so. What's a couple scrap lost to help prove a point? Heck you would even be losing scrap since you'd be selling in your suggested range. That is simply all I ask: negate my hypothetical situation by actually conducting your own.

Ok lets see...putting one up for 5 ref now. I'm not actually going to sell.

EDIT: 20 seconds on bp.tf classifieds for 5 ref.

EDIT: 25 seconds for 5.11 on classifieds.

Can someone who's not banned from outpost do this? A lot more people use outpost as a trading service.

You could set up a deal with someone on your friends list who's not banned from outpost for life to give them keys and ask them to do this for you. I'm sure they'd be happy to do it if it helps lower key price...or I guess recycle key price with a wider range.

lol didnt u read Baloo, he is not going to sell them. If its just a drill then I can put all my 520 keys for sale for 3 ref, and would try to lower keys on that basis. But keep in mind, I will not sell them. lol

what a stupid logic !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So what you are saying is that if I sell all my keys for 3 ref this will get passed? If I need metal, you sure as hell can bet that I won't sell for so high, and insulting me doesn't really count as "counterproof."

dude sell your keys for 5 ref atleast that u so much banking upon. and then we will see ow you really back up your suggestion. if you cannot sell your own keys for 5 ref each then very well backoff now. Stop farming rep.

Also, Vincent already said that this suggestion that a range over a rec is alright. So don't just randomly close this Jon.

Please have Vincent comment for verification and if he would please leave a reason as to why he'd overturn another moderator's precedent, then that'd also be helpful.

I added Sir Jon and he told me it was Vincent's idea of the rec range. Now I have to go, so I'll debate with you later.

Erm... that wasn't really a debate, rather a simple request, but okay.

I meant below.

To clarify the situation as much as I can. I've never implemented a hard rule that a range over a rec isn't allowed. I think I may have mentioned at one point that I thought it'd be unreasonably large for a key range to be over a rec, but then there are a number of ranges on the site that have been accepted that I've been unhappy with. When I said it, I was only voicing my opinion on how a good key range should be. As far as I know, there's never been a hard rule about ranges on any items on the site, it's always come down to when the community feels a range is too large.

If a rule has been brought up at some point based on what I've said, then it's been done by miscommunication. The only time I've enforced a rule on keys, to my recollection, is the time I banned Long from them on the basis of a troll comment. If I've overturned a moderator's precedent, it wasn't my intention. When I told Chigga he was free to start this suggesiton, it was based on the idea that a range size rule originated from me. From that stance, I never meant to start a range restriction, and as such I wouldn't personally come in to close it based on range size.

Hope that makes sense. And I hope I'm not forgetting a time where I indeed closed a key suggestion based on its size, in which case I'll have to feel like a fool.

Edit: Looks like I took over 10 minutes to get this posted since I got here and the convo got dropped in the meantime anyway. The shame...

Mate keys two suggestions to incorporate 5 ref in the change all with few days have been closed by the moderators of backpack.tf and yet you keep allowing them to poke their stupid heads back up again. Your comments show that u thought that rec range originated from you so your overturning a moderators precedent is justified but is allowing a 5 ref range suggestion again justified? John have been announcing everywhere that 5 ref suggestions would be closed without warning means nothing to his fellow moderators? Common guys before allowing things like 5 ref ranges please see how many suggestions have been rejected by moderators or atleast ask the fellow mods y did they reject it and then allow other people again to post 5 ref suggestions.

We would expect you to close this suggestion instantly if the previous decisions of your fellow moderator means anything to you.

I've admittedly been ignoring key suggestions, so yes, I've missed all of that. Anyway, you're correct.

"Any and all "proof" at 5-5.11 is completely null and void when massive amount of buyers exist at 5.22, 5.33 and above.

I will ONLY consider "proof" of 5-5.11 refined when the range and amount of buyers at above those prices dwindle. For now, they are not.

From now on, any key suggestion using trade.tf fair deal "proofs" which sell in 5-10 seconds to lower the price of keys when I can search outpost and find numerous 5.22+ buyers in the same 5-10 seconds will be closed with no warning." -Sir Jon

The issue isn't the range. The issue is that buyers for higher exist everywhere, and so long as they're not going away, there's no need to bring 5 ref into range.

Nothing wrong with a wide range so long as the community's okay with it, in my personal opinion, but there IS an issue in bringing in a lower range when there are countless available buyers for higher. It wouldn't fly for any other item on the site, and there's no reason why keys should be an exception. Closing on that basis.

I believe what most of us are calling into reference is Sir Jon's reason for closing cleverpun's suggestion of 5-5.55 refined: "We already determined that any range larger than 1 reclaimed would be too wide."

Source: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51a30a084bd7b8c124000007

If you believe this to be a case of miscommunication, then I would suggest that this be brought up and resolved either between you and Jon or have Brad answer. Since at the moment it seems to be one moderator's words over another which is highly confusing for the voters.

http://i.imgur.com/WXTq5Fh.jpg

Haha, that hate.

Well considering it only took you 2 hours to post it...alright, thank you for the verification of Vincent's sanction of this suggestion.

How many times did you have to refresh outpost to get those links, or did you just hop over to trade.tf and scroll through fair deals for keys? The fact that sales happen rapidly across the board for 5.33 refined does say a lot about range, but I don't think it means we should lower the range if they're all snatched up in minutes.

Please read the notes,

So if I sold a bunch of keys for 3 refined, then 3 refined should also be in range because it sells just as fast as 5 refined? That seems like a poorly based argument.

So is there a single person just selling keys for 5 ref? Are there people selling keys for 3 ref? No, keys at 5/5.11 are being sold by many different people and I have not seen a single trade at 3.

Yes, but this suggestion, or I should say type of suggestion was already closed for reasons given by Sir Jon which I do not wish to track down on my phone because key suggestions take forever to load due to all the comments. The spin you're trying to put on this one for making it valid is because you say it doesn't matter how fast it sells for 5 refined because it sells just as fast at 5.33 refined. My exaggeration to this was to bring to light the flaw in that sort of thinking in which of course if something sells out basically instantly for higher than its obviously going to sellout instantly for lower, as well, but that fact does not allow for a price drop in the lower-end. People are already starting to get annoyed with how many keys they're buying at 5.44 refined and might start shifting to 5.55 refined within the next 2 weeks if not sooner. The simple fact is that there isn't enough of these trades to feed these trading monsters.

It sells just as fast as keys at 5-5.33 because keys ARE IN CONSTANT DEMAND, like you said, to feed the trading monsters. The fact is, there were 70+keys traded today at 5-5.11 refined.

Alright, assuming 70 keys sold between the price of 5-5.11 refined today is reliable. Now assume all the people actively looking to buy/sell keys at 5.22-5.44 refined. How do those numbers add up, or I should say: how do you think those numbers hypothetically add up? By estimates I'm not thinking its going to end up being split 50/50 and only 140 keys were sold today, not even close.

bought like 5 for 5.11 the past week or so

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9209584

If you could post some screenies :)

The only thing is that they almost always instantly sell at 5-5.11 as opposed to 5.22-5.33.

Or course 5-5.11 is going to sell quickly because it's the LOW END of the current range. If you see someone selling at the low end of a range, of course you'll jump to that before jumping to a higher price. If 5.22-5.33 becomes the low range, they'll go just as quickly because they will be the LOW END. This is why every time the range is increased the the new low end sells quickly, which apparently translates into the need of a new price, which is silly. If 6.33 ever becomes the low end, keys will probably sell quickly at that price as well.

They sell instantly at 5 Refined - 5.33 Refined. 5.44 Refined requires a tad of a bit more time to sell, but not much. Most people are unwilling to buy or sell at 5.55 Refined, and they're is not enough conclusive evidence to say whether or not 5.55 Refined should be in the range or not. This range basically covers the majority of which a key sells for. Is it right? That's for the mods to decide.

more proof for 5 and 5.44 would be good :)

More?

yes its good but the 5 ref is quicksell price cause it goes in less than 10 seconds

Do I need to post my opinion on this matter?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10859567

Bought 8. All the puu.sh links under "Proof at 5/5.11 from others:" are mine.

Sir Jon- "We already determined that any range larger than 1 reclaimed would be too wide."

Sooooo I don't like your chances.

Already explained.

Bought two keys for 10 ref a week ago.

Disregard the crates and the reclaimed metal! I was selling some useless crates o' mine.

http://i.imgur.com/Cvp0uEn.png

Chigga... you should stop poking tiny holes in peoples' logic and look at your own... 5-5.11 doesn't count because it simply makes no sense what so ever to sell at anything lower 5.33. Look at the sellers in your proof. Most of them are new to trading, with few trades and/or low play time, or quicksellers that just need ref quickly. In addition, many of your 5.11 buyers are proof from a week ago, when keys were lower. Buyers and Sellers agree that keys' low end is at over 5.22, shown by buyers at 5.33-5.44 . Sellers are having success at 5.44-5.66. You've seen enough proof to know that.

Let's say, in a hypothetical world, Stout Shakos started gaining popularity. The price soon rises to 1.33-1.66, then 1.66, then 1.66-2. Many people are trying to buy at 2 refined, and there are buyers at 2.11 with some success, while sellers at 2.33 are succeeding in selling their Stout Shakos, as people expect shakos to continue to rise. But, some inexperienced traders who thought that shakos were still 1.66 sell their shakos almost instantly. Although there are some trades at 1.66, the accurate suggestion would be 2-2.33 or 2.11-2.33 (depends). Your logic says the price is 1.66-2.11. You completely ignore the fact that buyers and sellers both agree that the price is over 2 refined, and base your proof on a few inexperienced traders. Think about it for a bit.

Do I care that these people are "new?" Also, you really don't have much proof that they are "new." They are still successful trades. And 1 week ago? Oldest is at 2 days old at time of posting. I've enough proof that 5.44 is possible, and not enough at 5.55-5.66. And also, don't use hypothetical situations as counterproof.

Just go to their outpost profile. It should be obvious that a lot of the sellers either haven't been trading for a while (a month or two), or have few (<70 or so, lots have less than 40) trades.

I honestly don't care about that, and I don't want to check their BPs, they were successful trades, that's what matters.

And if you're going to complain about "new traders"...http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084262794

New, I may be. Stupid enough to not notice that the actual price of keys is over 5.33, I am not.

Latest proof of 5.55 ref trades @

http://imgur.com/a/rXu2P

Does not include most 1/2/3 key purchases.

As I said, the bot is only online when I am, I watch most of the trades take place, it's there for my convenience.

Bots, TF2F, and scrap.tf don't count as accurate counterproof, somewhere cleverpun said that somewhere, let me find it.

Perhaps you should read what I have said: "As I said, the bot is only online when I am, I watch most of the trades take place, it's there for my convenience."

My bot provides no convenience to the buyer, just convenience for myself. Thus I believe that it does not differ from a regular trader and does not compare to a 24/7 bot.

And copying and pasting that quote of myself (foolishly) wiped about 20 links of buying @ 5.33ref+. Give me a few minutes.

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51a7ac844bd7b8534b000003

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11347364 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11366889 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11221426 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11372578 Buying @ 5.44ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11374102 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11324340 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11320639 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11371659 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11358978 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11348152 Buying @ 5.44ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11313207 Buying @ 5.44ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11359581 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11372963 Buying @ 5.50ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11374584 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11319709 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11285848 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11361069 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11347896 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11344142 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11290069 Buying @ 5.33ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11354621 Buying @ 5.44ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11360226 Buying @ 5.385ref

Just a couple links @ 5.33ref+. So the question remains, with so many people willing to pay 5.33ref, why do people sell for <5.33ref? Are they quicksells?

This range is too wide and does not truly cover the the market.

5.22-5.33ref would be a better suggestion, as sales occur above and below the range with a median @ 5.22-5.33ref. Even then I would say that the sales distribution is skewed towards the 5.44-5.55 ref end.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11376695 Selling @5.44, add 18 seconds after creating trade.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11309242 Selling @ 5.44 ref, 2 adds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11376850 Selling @ 5.44 ref, sold.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11376969 Selling @ 5.495 ref, sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11373305 Add for 5.55ref

Those were found on the first page of a key search, on outpost. During that time, no <5.33ref trades appeared.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11375889 Buying for 5.66

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11260227 Add for 3 at 5.55

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11369997 Claims 2 sold at 5.55

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11348454 Check the third key's item history, sold for 5.66

This range looks familiar

Stop spamming, this is like saying "here we go again". Stay on-topic with constructive statements unless you want to be warned by the moderators.