Keys go up, everything else goes down. The Tossle is not an exception. people cant sell them with mid-to high tier paints for 5 Keys, and there are some selling for less. 5 Key links are either older than 3 days or painted ones

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/vintage%20tossle one for 4 Keys, 1 pink and one Lime for 5 Keys at the time of posting

Unsolds at 5 Keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11042423 painted with after Eight, unsold for a week despite autobump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10958287 unsold for a week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11176166 unsold for 5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11251208 4 days, got offered 4 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11181826 6 Days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11378586 painted lime

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11376173 also painted lime

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11373940 painted purple

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11353796 painted Pink

Unsolds/selling for less:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11222843 4 Keys 4 Ref, 5 days

others:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11241058 got offered a SF axtinguisher (4.5-5 Keys)

http://www.trade.tf/price/150/3 trade.tf has 4.36 as a median price