Suggestion: Haunted Ghosts Modest Pile of Hat at 261.89–293.31 keys

Price Suggestion

~37 keys

ghosts

28 votes up

15 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Wed, 05 Jun 13 18:39:48 +0000 by Horizon.

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Comments

Sorry! I set the wrong currency with the last suggestion. Updating the outdated price for this unusual:

According to Stats.tf, 15 exist with 7 currently being sold on Outpost (only 5 links shown because the other 2 are relatively inactive):

1. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10851151 (turned down a sunbeams Flamenco + sweets for around ~10 buds).

2. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11268290 (turned down a sulphurous Stout Shanko and electrostatic Hat of Cards with a combined offer value of around 10 buds).

3. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11197254 (turned down offer of sulphurous Head Warmer + N&B bomber. Head Warmer ended up being sold for around ~9 buds).

4. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11278180 (failed negotiating the Modest for burning Bicorne when willing to add a Max, which the buyer considered 2 for a total of 13 buds, which makes the Modest 11 buds pure). *strongest proof of new value suggestion.

5. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10985709 (most notable offer being a harvest-moon Juju *outdated price* that goes for about 9.5-10 buds).

I just bought one today for 6 buds + overclocked Connoisseur Cap (1 of 2 for sale) which received a fair 4 bud offer from TP, placing my own valuation for the hat at a solid 10 buds, 11-12 buds pure/mixed if patient.

Proof of sale: http://i.imgur.com/kLy3zHM.png

I'm just wondering how you got the prices for the new unusuals? From what I've seen, no one can agree on the prices for most of them.

Either way, how'd you get 11.2 buds? I'd say 10-10.5 or 10-11 to be fairer. Your own trade really doesn't count.

I check the owner's own listings to see what kind of offers they have received to gauge their prices.

As far as the price ceiling is concerned, 12 buds is the absolute optimal price for this hat considering most sellers on Outpost have buyouts set at 11 buds pure (not counting overpaying in unusual hats). Setting 12 as the ceiling instead of 11.2 (or 11.5, for that matter) would be very unreasonable. If I had accounted for unusual overpaying, I would have set the ceiling at 15 buds+. So, I gave it a 11.2 range since 11.5 would be borderline optimal price and therefore "pushing it a bit much."

Lastly, if I don't take my own offers into mind, wouldn't that be counter-intuitive to what I am currently doing - taking into account all offers for this unusual?

Ah okay. I was just wondering on the new unusuals.

Also, if most sellers at buyouts at 11 pure wouldn't 11 be the best then? The prices here are based on pure prices. I can't see it going past 11 pure if that's what the buyout is. Maybe in unusuals + items but then we'd factor in overpay. Even then, 11 seems to be the max.

Also, the reason for not taking your own trade into account is because it's too easy to manipulate prices because someone regretted their decision. It's not saying you're doing it but it's been done. Someone overpays for their unusual and tries to bump up the price by showing how much they paid.

If you remake this at 10-11 I'd have no problem upvoting but that 11.2 seems to be pushing it. I'm going to stay neutral until otherwise.

In high-tier trading (what I consider at least 5-10 buds equivalent in worth), .2 is marginal (~5 keys if considering buds at 25 keys each). I added it as wriggle room.

Yep, pretty much the same range as the previous suggestion again.^^