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Quite a few sellers at 23 keys these days. And a lot unsold at 24 keys/1 bud.
23 keys:
First let's look at the classifieds. http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/Strange%20Festive%20Knife
3 for sale at 23 keys (At the time of posting: http://imgur.com/nQVF1tt )
Also, a one on outpost: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11455604
24 keys (still slightly below 1 bud):
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11283356 (Has a part, 1 week old).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11347024 (6 days old, still not sold).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11341336 (Old trade, but not bumped well).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11457670 (Will add 1 key for a bud).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11347336 (Claims he will add 2 keys max. Not sure about this one).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11313316 (1 week old).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11278917 (Willing buyers at 24 keys. Still unsold).
Unsold at 24 keys or more:
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10559354 (30 keys, overpricing. But 1 month old).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11435617 (25 keys, only 3 days old though).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11417509 (Same as above).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11380958 (Wants 1 bud, 2 decent parts, still unsold, 5 days old).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11283356 (24 keys, week old. Strange part. Still unsold!)
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11313316 (24 keys, 2 parts, still unsold after 1 week).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11051744 (1 bud, 2 weeks old).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11311737 (1 bud, unsold after 1 week).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11347336 (1 bud, 6 days old, posted this before I think).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11323565 (25 keys, ~1 bud, unsold after almost a week).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11262005 (bp.tf price of 1 bud. 1 week old).
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11518058 (OKAY THIS IS GETTING BORING, AMOUNT UNSOLD AT OVER 24 KEYS = TOO MANY!)
So yeah, really hard to sell at over 24 keys/1 bud. Few sellers at 23 keys. And lots at 24 keys, yet, they remain unsold.
Good Proof. Upvoted.
well I don't know about this, first link i open i start to disagree with so I'm going to do a thorough check through your links and comment on each one. (note firstly i dislike your layout you repeat links http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11283356 , http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11313316 , and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11347336 in both 24 keys and unsold at 24 keys i understand why but it is misleading.
Classified links are fine there are still 3 (at time of commenting) for sale at 23 keys however 3rd guy no longer has it in his bp (sexyfiddler)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11455604 selling for 23 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11455604 was added immediately but didn't trade.
24 keys (still slightly below 1 bud [well kinda])
first link correct unsold 6 days.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11347024 sold today 8 hours ago - 6 days seems reasonable time for me to sell an expensive strange, no? sold to http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/271523 for 24 keys
3rd link correct - badly bumped
4th link asking specifically for earbud will minimize audience able to afford it, also 2 days isn't long but yes adding a key for a bud, which most people aren't selling for less than 25 at time of commenting so still 24 keys is his price imo.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11347336 willing to add 2 keys so willing to sell at less than 24 keys even if a bit weird.
6th link ok.
7th link he says 3 people are willing to buy at 24 keys he's just missed them, meaning the hat isnt worth less and 3 offers in a week on an expensive strange is good.
now unsold at 24 keys (apart from the 2 repeats i found)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10559354 agreed hugely overpriced all this tells us is noone is willing to buy for 30 keys however someone offered to buy for 24 keys 3 weeks ago (while ago true but still an offer)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10559354 interesting he uses the bud as an excuse to ask for 25 keys rather than 24 keys be interesting to see if he sells it only 3 days old, give it another 4.
fine fine and fine for next 3.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11051744 had 2 offers for 24 keys but hasn't been sold, i added to ask why.
another trade that got an add after 6 days http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11311737 I'm starting to see a pattern here. Unfortunately he was trade banned and trade is now closed.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11262005 badly bumped.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11518058 unsold at 25 keys thank you.
SO FAR from looking at your trades is that the price of this item should adapt to the bud rise and remain at 24 keys i see no reason why it should drop to 23 keys. the unsold ones at 25 do represent the s.f.knife not being higher end of a bud, but then again bud change was recent, maybe give it time.
there are 7 pages of 20 trades all selling s.f.knifes and you take a small sample including 3 repeats and only provide one trade showing at 23 keys which got an immediate add and is only 2 days old (when most take 5-6 days to get an add) Good try but not good price range suggestion downvote. Please do comment on this because IMO this is how a price suggestion should be done (but i would like to learn if i did it wrong), looking through bp's comments and even adding people, too many people try to use my trades of other items as suggestions and don't realise i haven't closed trade just because i often get new stock. At the end of analyzing your suggestion i search for all the s.f.knife trades and on first page i see this guy http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11491476 day old has already sold BOTH for a bud, not even 24 keys but a bud. However no more time to search through the rest of them to see offers. however before i go http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11495210 sold for a bud/25keys in a day. So this is my first comment on bp.tf and I think this is how it should be done. I completely disagree with your suggestion range, still selling for 25 keys, and i think your suggestion is lazy 'OKAY THIS IS GETTING BORING, AMOUNT UNSOLD AT OVER 24 KEYS = TOO MANY!' and incomplete. Hopefully those two trades i show that show an item sold at 25 keys/bud within a day and by analysis of your suggestion is enough to recognise that there may be more needed for this suggestion, but it won't be so i will comment again when i have more time, though by then the market sees this price suggestion and prices change.
i went on to classifieds and i checked everyones bp who were selling for 24 keys one person has already sold their key
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063820583
24 keys looks right and 23 looks low from what the above comment said.
4 unsold in classifieds for 23. Upvoted.
1 of those has already sold it, it is no longer in his bp, and another was only made an hour ago, for the 2863 i think you're going to have to look more than at 3, especially seeing as classifieds arent the most popular place to look for items
to remove any confusion i will do 6 categories unsold at: 23, 24, 25 hopefully there are enough that i wont have to use the ones above 25 or below 23 if there are any. I also won't take any offers before 22 days as that was the last price suggestion. if i find any sold or offers made on ones i will put them in respective groups of offered at 23 24 25 and a bud i will take at 25 but you can take as what you like, makes little difference. If offered multiple offers i will take highest (why would they sell for the less) however offered doesn't mean they will accept the offer they may consider it too low keep that in account. if the trade is older than 5 days i will right unsold next to it.
note writing offered for less that 23 is silly a lot of people lowball 22 or even 20 to get profit trade, however offering higher than bud would be surprising and if i see someone accept 22 key offer i will include it.
problem with this method is people who's offers are retracted are also included but its a lot more accurate that 'unsold' at X when the item has already been traded after a day... (look at previous comment)
if they are offered but miss the trade i will include that in offered for.
if asking for keys or bud i will take key category only as it is more reliable than price changing bud, also i will repeat trade if offered 23 keys but asks for 24, although that doesn't mean much if noone is willing to sell for 23 keys, but gives an idea of what people want to buy for (which doesn't help as they base that price off your bp.tf price).
number of bud or more offers older than 3 weeks: 4
i include short times for trades only because then we can be sure that their asking price hasnt changed.
asking for 23
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11484780 - 2days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11538537 also asking for a bud - 2 hours.
offered 23
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11483601
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11313316
asking for 24
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11362337
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6997129 sold alot at 24 apparently unsure when so meh not great evidence.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11313316
offered 24
asking for 25
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11483601
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11495210
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11518058
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11435617
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11417509
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11450088
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11534424
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11323565
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11522888
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11441359
offered 25
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11495210
asking for a bud
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11051744
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11445543
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11517261
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11445543
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11491476 THIS IS MY FAVE one his trade is still up but he's sold both of them i'm assuming for the price he asked of a bud each, within a 1 DAY. strongest evidence you can get is sold items. I added to ask him and he said he sold both for 2 buds each, add him yourself i cba to get screenshot maybe next comment.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11380958
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11381077
offered a bud
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11014963
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10152199
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8564834
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11051744
ok i've gotten to page 7 and they're getting older and less well bumped now, however i have found more offers of a bud within recent previous price suggestion than you could find unsold at 24 or 23 (some of your unsold at 24 were repeated or asking for 25 keys/buds) hopefully this is clear enough for you guys to make your own deduction of the price but remember important things are the HIGHEST OFFERS and the LOWEST ASKING FOR prices but following a normal distribution there will always be a few more and a few less than the mean price i personally bought a s.f.knife at 20keys, some people are trying to sell for 32 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9453903
FROM this you can see majority asking for 24-25 take into account i didnt even bother including the ones asking for more, and a 2 asking for less than 24, and none of the 24-25 asking prices are older than 6 days (At time of commenting) so i couldnt disagree with this suggestion more, doing some research you see a bud is pretty balanced middle ground some.
bp.tf doesn't just suggest prices.