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OMG CURRENCY CHANGE!!!! (reposted with better range)
So yeah this items needs a range, many are selling for under a key using ref, and there are many that are unsold for a long time at a key. A key is still possile though, and I count 5.66 ref as 1 key.
SELLING OR SOLD
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11530130 (4.66 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11482546 (4.66 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11533764 (4.77 ref)
http://bazaar.tf/trade/239269 (5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11521145 (5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11489929 (5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11513501 (5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11429378 (5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11508505 (5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11412559 (5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11312839 (would accept 5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11516750 (5.11 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11440741 (5.22 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10798336 (would accept 5.33 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11482968 (would accept 5.33 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11433137 (would accept 5.33 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11381566 (would accept 5.33 ref)
http://imgur.com/pvY7tNy (5-5.22 ref sellers)
COUNTERPROOF
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11530130 (4.66 ref) Quicksale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11482546 (4.66 ref) Quicksale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11533764 (4.77 ref) Quicksale
http://bazaar.tf/trade/239269 (5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11521145 (5 ref) Quicksale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11489929 (5 ref) Quicksale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11513501 (5 ref) Eh, sold 1 of 2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11429378 (5 ref) never bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11508505 (5 ref) Added
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11412559 (5 ref) Sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11312839 (would accept 5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11516750 (5.11 ref) Added
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11440741 (5.22 ref) Sold, added within a day
This probably has more upvotes than it should because of bias and because many people (not all) simply glance at the proof and blindly vote.
It's kind of hard to find counterproof because there aren't that many posted buyers on Outpost and it's hard to search for completed trades. I just know from experience that this item just follows the price of the key. If a key is 2.33 ref, there will be sellers/buyers at 2-2.33 ref. If a key is 5.33 ref, there will be sellers/buyers at 5-5.33 ref.
Sold/offers for 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10138753
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10379597
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10415752
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10785709
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10850091
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10866033
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11123087
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11181781
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11212776
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11348689 Added
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11417559
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11452486
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11466229
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11471890
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11487270
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11487850 Added
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11532779
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11543329
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11548254 Added
Many more...
Uh, some of your counterproof supports my range >_> I do know that it does sell for a key, and a few of your links seem to be a couple weeks old though. You don't really need the 4.66 sellers since that is obviously a quick sell. Many of your 5 ref and up sellers are still unsold for a couple of days, leading to believe that it is most likely not a quicksell. I myself am confused with this suggestion, I want to hear a mod's opinion on this until I close or resuggest a price, because I'm thinking 0.8 or 0.9-1 key would maybe be better.
More proof supporting my price.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11581561 (4.33 ref unsold 12 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11579915 (5 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11565050 (5 ref)
http://bazaar.tf/trade/239673 (would accept 5.44 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11578427 (gives a rec if you give a key)
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/851/1/0 (2 unsold at 5 ref for 3 days!)
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/851/1/0/2 (one unsold at 5.33 ref for 6 days!)
The thing is 1 key works just fine. Nothing major has happened to cause a change. Trades will happen slightly below the suggested price, but you have not shown unsold at 1 key. You really need to show unsold at 1 key and an overwhelming amount of sellers in ref.
On the last breath suggestion you upvoted when it was full of quicksales, and now on this you are calling quicksales? I don't understand, seems like quicksales are only cataloged as such, if certain user calls it
There is a certain point when quicksales don't become quicksales anymore - when enough people do it. The only way for a price to drop is if a ton of sellers decide to cut their price and "quicksell" it. Once everyone starts doing it, the price should drop. This proof only has a handful of sellers for a big market that sold theirs within a couple hours.
The Last Breath suggestion had 35+ trades below the current range, so a change was needed. This suggestion only has 13 trades below the current range and my experience tells me that the price follows the price of a key.
The price of this item changes with the price of keys. That's just the way it is.
Believe me I have tried: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/518863daba25367c69000003
Also .. its very easy to sell for 1 key
I sold mine for 1 key in 2 hours, no idea why people sell for 5
But people are willing to sell for refined, even if it is the refined equivalent of a key.
The question really is whether it gets sold MORE often in refined or keys. If it's in keys, then the price should be in keys. Although it would seem that trade.tf agrees with you.
Yup, also would decimals of a key be allowed? If so would 0.8-1 key work?
0.8-1 key is possible, but you will get a lot of heat for it. Though, 0.9-1 key is probably more accurate than your suggested price in ref right now.
Yeah, since 0.2 keys is considered 1 ref, then 0.8 would be 4 ref. I have seen the flack some people get for putting 0.9 keys, but that would be more accurate. Im going to wait for other people`s opinions until I suggest that though.
People tend not to like 0.8-1 keys because 0.8 implies that it was a ref sale UNLESS there is a sale of I'll add one ref to the awp for a key. But those are uncommon. Really, if you have enough sales in refined, this should be fine. I'll see if I can find some.
http://www.tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9514882 - 4 ref
http://www.tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9520198- 4.66 ref
http://www.tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9512170 - 5 ref
http://www.tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9516599 - 5 ref
http://www.tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9515509 - 5 ref
There is a reason why these suggestions in ref have gone up.
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/517af6b3ba2536f016000007 4-4.66 ref
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/518772afba2536eb34000005 4.33-4.66 ref
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/518863daba25367c69000003 4.66-5 ref
Now this suggestion at 5-5.33 ref
The reason is counter proof
There has been zero counterproof on this suggestion so far. If you disagree with this suggestion, I suggest you proof it wrong.
I seen people on trade servers sell for 1 key most of the time. Down vote from me.
Ohhey im in the proof :D Yeah this item should really drop down to 5 ref...
I will re-state this because it's really important.
You need to show unsold trades at 1 key as well as show a majority of sellers changing to ref instead of keys. You said that there are "many that are unsold for a long time at a key." Then provide some proof of that.
If you want to quicksell it, you would go a few scraps below 1 key. Thus, the majority of the prices in ref is based on the price of a key.
In my suggestion a month ago, I showed 49 unsuccessful sellers at 1 key. A couple days later, 19 out of the 49 trades were sold. This is the problem of Outpost; you can't search completed trades. I just know from experience that the Gen. AWPer Hand's price revolves around 1 key.
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/518863daba25367c69000003
I bought mine for a key a while ago. Downvote.
Unsolds?
And I had no trouble selling at 1 key/5.44 ref
I think it's enough proof, I checked the classified and found several at 5 refs upvote
I sold 2 for a key recently very easily. Im going to have to downvote
Recently sold 3 for a key each pretty easily, would have to downvote this.
Can provide screenies if requested
Comments are pretty strong about key still easy to sell for. And it seems that from past suggestions it has consistently stayed around 1 key even when key prices went up.
Keeping as key
Closing in his name because my internet is better. Hah.