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Yay, another one.
PROOF
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10432023 (20 key b/o but a very willing 19 key buyer)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7175951 (sold for a bud, 25 keys)
This is a tough one. At first I thought that that bud sale was out-dated and invalid, but upon further investigation have realised that this hat is rarely available so it's actually very important. Unless if someone shows me evidence to change my mind, I currently agree with your suggestion.
see my comment below ;P
buds are 25 keys right now, but 4 weeks ago (when the bud sale actually happened) they were 21-22 keys if I remember correctly. So your high range should be 22 keys at most imho.
That's a very good point.
Oh crap your right, redoing this suggestion.