Suggestion: Bill's Hat at 7.6–8 keys

Price Suggestion

Bill's Hat

Submitted Wed, 12 Jun 13 17:20:10 +0000 by ★ polar

41.32%

8 keys

7.6–8 keys

~3.68 keys

69 votes up

98 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Wed, 12 Jun 13 19:20:29 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

Please read before commenting. No one here can deny that selling bill’s for 8 keys takes MUCH longer than it used to. Heck, selling painted bill’s for 8 keys takes a full day. For a currency item, that is clearly way too long to be a flat price. I have multiple links of bill’s for 7 keys – those are quicksells. But look at all the links for 7.8. Even they are taking a while to sell and there are lots of sellers at under 7.8. And one last thing to point out. There are only 12 pages (last 3 pages are very old) of unpainted bill's on outpost. There AREN'T that many unpainted bills. Compare this to keys, buds. With such a small sample size, the number of links I have provided below is very significant.

I’m going to give this case study to illustrate why before presenting all the other proof. This seller has sold LOADS of bill’s for 7.75 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671537 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11134814 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11099602 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11290634 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11340893 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11356284 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11377835- 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11378458 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11414596 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11439674 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11464004 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11545607 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11644604 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11644844 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11670461 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671537 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11137312 - 7.8 keys

As you can see, he has bought a ton of bills. For how much? 7.3 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671537

Note my timeline. He has bought all these bill’s in the last ~10 days. Frankly, with that kind of volume, I think 7.3 should be considered as part of the range. But I’ll still count that as a “quickbuyer.” Now you may argue that the range should really be 7.75-8. But the reality is that he isn’t even able to quicksell them at 7.75. See his current trade. It’s been up for 4 hours. Bill’s should not be unsold at a quicksell price for that long.

Other proof:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11652132 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11640322 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11632007 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11637045 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11471776 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11085214 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11658472 - 7.2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11674031 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11652775 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11566476 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11644019 - sold for 7.5 keys – and took a full 12 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11453552 - 7.5 keys - this is the guy from bp.tf classifieds who was selling for 7.5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11007853 - 7.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11642725 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10970781 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11642725 - 7.6 keys - reposted it twice before he actually sold it - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11642603

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11661847 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11182276 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11614212 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11132398 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11499257 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11590453 - 7.75 keys - autobump, unsold after 3 days

http://bazaar.tf/trade/254936 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11655911 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11629957 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11604524 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11654739 - 7.8 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11674197 - 7.85 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11674197 - 7.9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11497406 - 7.9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11530418 - 7.9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11639715 - 7.9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11639715 - 7.95 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11636001 - 7.95 keys - white bills

Painted Bill’s for 8 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11633587 - gold, unsold after a day with autobumping

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11656098

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11651060

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11632060

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11650294

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11639536

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11628411

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11628021

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11636591

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11653373

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11652957

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11668519

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11666107

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11665951

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11665502

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11664810

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11663608

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11668250

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11668097

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11675478

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671022

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11677475

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671751

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11670378

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11666319

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11666208

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11670290

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11668889

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11200255

AND LOTS MORE

WHY 7.6-8 is better than 7.75-8. Btw, 7.75 = 7 keys + 4 ref

(1) Look at all the unsolds at 7.75 keys. There are several >1-2 days old and one 3 days old WITH autobump. 7.75 keys should not be the low end if this is happening.

(2) 7.75-8 is not really a meaningful change. This has been discussed in previous suggestions

(3) There are lots of TRUE quicksellers under 7.6 keys

(4) Buying at 7.4 keys or less has become so ridiculously easy. Take the case example that I pointed out. He has bought so many at 7.25 keys. It should not be THAT easy to buy bill’s if their value is 7.75-8.

no :<

........

all your 7 key proof got sold within a day.

the first wall of proof is sold out. only 2 bills left for 7.75

in the second wall of "proof" all is sold out expect for those:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11566476

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11655911

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11604524

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11654739

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11674197

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11530418

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11639715

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11566476

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11614212

BUT

the oldest one is 3 days old. the second oldest is 2 days old. All others are between 30 minutes and 1 day. thats too short...

the third wall of "proof" is all about painted ones. Idk about you, but i dont count them as proof on a suggestion about unpainted bills...

quote from ConVict | blind polar bear

(2) 7.75-8 is not really a meaningful change. This has been discussed in previous suggestions

YES it is a big change. if it gets down only a little, lowballers will instantly lower their price ALOT. they would think the bills is dropping like the buds did a month ago... dont fuck this one up. pleeease =)

Keys, Bills, Buds are currency. Do you see keys for 5.33 ref lasting more than 1 min? Do you see buds selling for 23 keys lasting more than 1 min? 30 minutes-1 day is a LONG time for something like the bill's.

And one thing to realize is that there actually AREN'T that many unpainted bills. Total of 12 pages on outpost. This much proof of sellers under 8 is significant.

bear, dont comment, you comment will get dislikes to hell

'Nuff said.

Do you think that matters to me? The goal of this website is to generate ACCURATE prices for items. Suggestions for keys, bills, buds have far reaching impacts and discussion is REQUIRED. People who blindly downvote in order to hide a comment are merely preventing this kind of suggestion from happening and are doing it at the expense of the true value of this website.

i tried, i like trully tried, but people are like NO, "ow he commented no need to read dislike" "aw a bill's suggestion downvote"

People are like that, anyway, you got my Upvote

I personally have had a hard time selling these for 8 keys. I have an unpainted one unsold at 8 keys for 3 days.

Still... http://puu.sh/3e8M7.jpg

Hahaha. Good one.

Michael, everyone here knows that. And no one cares. All your comments and my comments will be disliked. My proof will all be discounted as quicksells. And this suggestion will have ~25% accuracy. The decision on this will ultimately come down to you guys.

that isnt true. you know, you have 2 possibilitys. cry about how unfair the internet is, or just stand your man. you know you wouldnt get much likes if you do a suggestion like this.

if you came here to cry, get off the internet.

Please see my comment below.

have readen it. dont know how this should change my opinion.

maybe you are right a little bit, and maybe i am the one crying here ;). i have the opinion that it is sad that the trading system fucks up... valve has done a nice job on that whole system. that was really difficult to develop. maybe im just a guy who doesnt wanna change a price of an item, which looks freaking awesome and it isnt possible to get it anymore. ;)

Weird. It just sold just now. What are the chances?

Some downvoter lurking here obviously bought it.

btw, do you think 7.75-8 would be better? My issue with this is that it's not much of a drop. But I could justify this as an initial decrease before resuggestion in another month or something like that. The thing is that even 7.75 doesn't sell fast for an item like a bills

The different between the two ranges is 0.075 keys which is about 1 reclaimed. I'm not sure if we'll be able to get the price down to that precision without some way of parsing mountains of trade data.

The best we can do is to try to determine which prices are the most commonly paid. 7.75 is about 7 keys and 4 refined. Is that more commonly paid than 7.60 or 8 flat? I don't know.

There are only 10 pages of unpainted bills on outpost. So there can't be that many sales for bill's in pure keys only on a daily and even weekly basis. I think 7 keys + 4 ref is the most commonly paid price. And even though trade.tf hasn't been considered valid proof. It is the best resource we have to go through all this data, and it supports the same idea.

It's like those wanting to try to lower the price of bills give up after searching for 30 seconds on Outpost to sell these for 8 keys. Pretty much anyone buying bills in non unusual, non promo trades is a quickbuyer. The reason why quickbuyers don't count is - get this - THEY RESELL IT FOR HIGHER THAN THEY BOUGHT IT FOR!

So this item must suffer a price decrease because of the higher key prices. Just goes to show you the mentality of Outpost nowadays, where waiting for something to sell for 5 minutes is considered wasted time.

The price suggestions for Bill's are a result of the mentality that took over this market in October, and has made trading, in a nutshell, a pain in the ass.

PAINTED. BILLS. DO. NOT. COUNT. How many times has this been brought up? Is it really that hard to forget? Paints have been suffering price decreases as of late, and as a result, those painted items are not worth as much as they were.

Another thing. Do you have any idea how many of these Bill's trades are being posted per day, since these are currency items?

Let's see...

First guy buys for lower.

Obvious "UNpatient-Profit-er" is OBVIOUS. It's so obvious i want to kill myself.

Your second part of link : Sold Within Hour.

^It's like selling keys for 5.33

3rd Part of Links. People start not to care about paints at this moment.

And painted stuff is invalid.

Well. That took waaay Shorter time than i thought.

The thing is. Bill's Hat's been 8 keys for years. There are many bill's hats at market @8 Keys.

These people makes difference because they dont want to wait. See? they sold way too fast.

You obviously didn't look at the links or you would have seen autobumped trades at 7.75 keys unsold after 3 days.

I only see 1. He has a offer of 1:1 V.Luger.

All still unsold. V luger - must account for item overpay. These should not be happening if Bills are worth 8 keys.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11590453

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11614212

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11655911

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11604524

Thats happen for unusuals.

Also seller doesnt ask for item overpay.

Anyways. the thing is you collect 4-5 unsold links out of 20-30 links.

Thats an exception.

Same exception goes with people selling their Bill's Hat for lower.

Your 7.75, 7, all of your under 8 sold out quite fast

basically theres one guy selling under 8 and everyone buys from him really quick while 8 keys still sells.

No one can keep track of every single sale of every unpainted bills in pure keys only. I only present what I have available to me. The next best thing to give you a holistic sense of what these are truly bought and sold at is trade.tf which says 7.6-8.

Also, look at any item on outpost. Sellers always sell for the high end of a range. 8 keys is still in my range, but I have showed that many (almost 50 bills) have sold for less than that.

You always have flawless proof... And I'm thinking of upvoting here.

You know, if this is my first missed suggestion then so be it. All the downvoters in here know how hard it is to sell bill's for 8 keys and how easy it is to buy them for 7 keys + 3 ref. Waive everything off as a quicksell.... It's a complete cop-out. When it is so easy to buy at under 7.6, it means that the value of bill's is 7.6-8.

We know its a quicksell when it takes a day or 2 for selling at full price.

But take minutes - Hour/2 to sell when discounted a little.

Doesn't work like that on currency. Keys sell in 10 seconds for 5.33 ref. Then why is an hour for the bill's at 7.5 keys considered a quicksell?

Question: I still don't get why people go crazy when someone tries to adjust the price of a bill's though? I mean, when things like keys, buds, pretty much everything changes in price, why does the bill's have to stay at 8 keys, especially if more and more people are starting to sell lower? And Considering the amount of people selling for under 8 keys, I think it's about time this thing got a price change. If more and more people were selling, for example, buds for 23 keys, and less are selling for 25, then surely the price must be changed considering the number of people selling at that particular price.

people have this thing in their head that bill's is and will always be 8 keys, and until this day, i dont understand why is that.

Because it's been like that all the time.

and keys always were between 2.33 and 2.66. NOT A VALID ARGUMENT

Was talking about bills hat.

can't comment on your other thing, but "it's alway been like that" is a shit argument. People always had slaves. Should we keep slaves? No we shouldn't.

..WHAT

You can't say that the quicksell-time is same for every item. I was used to trade alo of Bill's hats so.. yeah.

Answer:

It's Because Sales @8 Still happening. Sadly there is no way to show people that sold their Bills Hats @8 Keys. We can't randomly click on peoples trades and find if they tried to sell Bills hats.

I have said this before in this thread and I will say it again. There are not that many sales for unpainted bills. Look on outpost. There are only ~10 pages of unpainted bills total. This means that per day, the volume of unpainted bills bought and sold, is not very high. I could easily provide you with links of bills sold at 8 keys. But the point is that there is a huge number, a very significant number sold for less than that.

Other point is that there are so many painted bill's hats that they're loosing price. Except Black/White Bill's Hats other paints are pretty much gone. they are like unpainted now.

you can. Trade.tf monitors the trades that happen all the time "including item to item changes. It is hovering between 7.6-8 too

yes.. I had to sell my bill for less than 8 keys, too many in the market and almost no one buys it for 8.. is just too easy find bill for less thank 8 keys.. inb4 DONT TOUCH MAH BILLS!!!!111 >:((((((

http://puu.sh/3e8ld.png

Actually got 2 more adds after selling it

Imma stay neutral for now.

I just sold my regular bills for 8 keys pure, it was just a sec ago

screenshot would be nice :)

bear, i love you

Bill's are in a awkward position anything under 8 sells fast whilst 8 can take a few days to a week to sell, what was the reasoning behind accepting 7.8-8 Keys and then changing it back to 8 soon after ?

manipulation duh

Inconsistencies between the mods combined with less proof than there is here of bills selling under 8.

from the 8 key suggestion:

http://i.imgur.com/ebPCs1s.png

http://i.imgur.com/xV0JGeE.png

I would personally say 7.6-8, but as I stated before these thinks need a drop. They need a drop quite badly. I know it's not allowed to be used as proof, but if we look here http://trade.tf/price/126/6 an 8 flat price hasn't been the case in a long time. You will indeed not get a lot of rep from this one, but really it's more accurate. Bring in all the dislikes, but luckily admins use proof and not the oh so common "bill's has always been at 8 and should stay at 8 hurr durr"

The problem is that the proof supports the Bill's being worth their current range, and their are certain factors in the Bill's Hat suggestions that are ignored

1) Buying links... You are hard pressed to find someone buying these that is not a quickbuyer.

2) Paint on an item... for something that reflects the price for the unpainted counterparts. With suggestions for hats, the vast majority of hat suggestions ignore the paint on the hat altogether. Much like suggesting strange weapon prices when parts are attached to them.

Some counter-proof:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11640598 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11641314 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11641861 - History says she sold it for 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11641829 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11643067 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11643118 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11644362 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11647288 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11648841 - Sold 1 unpainted for 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11649067 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11650489 - 8 Keys

Just a few. It seems like it takes a couple of days to sell for 8 Keys, but it is still very possible, and frequent.

As for your statements at the bottom of your comment:

1). Unsold items are not proof. http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/1679-unsolds-acceptable-proof/

2). Just because it is not a meaningful change, does not mean it is correct.

3). There is only 13 trades under 7.6 trades, 18 if you include 7.6 Keys trade. That is a lot?

4). You only gave a single case of somebody buying for 7.4 Keys, and you claim that it is ridiculously easy? A single case and it is incredibly easy? A rather big claim to declare considering that it is a single trader!

Bill's will always be able to be sold for a bit higher, and a bit lower; however, most of them are still occurring at 8 Keys, so I see no reason why to add a low value, especially as low as 7.6 Keys.

Your proof:

1). Includes a single trader who sold all his Bill's fairly fast. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671537 - Already sold 2 at 7.75 Keys in 7 hours, hasn't been bumped in 3 hours.

2). 32 trades of Bill's less than 8 Keys, most of which have sold fairly quickly, and 21 that actually fit the suggested range.

3). Painted trades to decide what an unpainted item is worth. Invalid.

There is no need for a range, unless you manage to garner more valid proof.

I had ~50 links of successful buyers under 7.6 keys but I didn't include them cause we have a mound of proof and quickbuyers aren't great examples of proof since they tend to change prices. And it's hard to evaluate how successful they are without the "added" which most buyers don't comment.

Also please note that there aren't as many transactions for bills:keys pure as you might think. There are a total of 10 pages of unpainted bills on all of outpost. Compare that to buds and keys.

Gathering proof of solds is tough, as I'm sure you know. I can't possible keep track of every single trade that has happened. But a sample size of 13 trades under 7.6 (true quicksells) and 27 links at 7.75 is very significant. The only website that actually tracks all these is trade.tf which suggests a range of 7.6-8.

I stay indifferent. It seems like painted Bill's have been on the decline, but I also do not believe it reflects the Unpainted Bill's also.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11628074 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11628570 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11630523 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11652220 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11654845 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11655691 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11655870 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11656100 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11656350 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11658661 - 8 Keys, rejected a 7 Key + 3 Refined offer

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11660541 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11661097 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11661429 - 8 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11662463 - 8 Keys

Also, there is 12 pages of unpainted Bill's. Most are selling for 8 Keys, and they are becoming successful.

And yet 8 keys is still in my range. My point is that just as many are getting sold under 8 keys as those getting sold at 8 keys. That's the point of having a range. If you can show more bill's getting sold at 8 keys than those getting sold under 8 keys, then you have a fair argument.

I'm afraid it will be your first failed suggestion

Then so be it. I don't really care about accuracy or rep. I care about having the community being informed about the true value of items. Bills are not worth the same as they were 1 year ago or even 2 months ago. People insisting that they are worth exactly the same are in denial.