Suggestion: Bill's Hat at 7.75–8 keys

Price Suggestion

Bill's Hat

Submitted Wed, 12 Jun 13 19:20:43 +0000 by ★ polar

54.49%

8 keys

7.75–8 keys

~3.68 keys

346 votes up

289 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Thu, 13 Jun 13 09:39:04 +0000 by Puddilicious.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

7.75 keys = 7 keys + 4 ref.

Luis made a good point. There are probably not as many sales of Bill's at 7.6 keys as at 8 keys so setting a range of 7.6-8 is probably not entirely fair. I still hate the argument that because something sells quickly it means it shouldn't be factored into the price. If 1000 sales are at 7.75 and 1000 are at 8, it shouldn't matter. The range should still be 7.75-8. I was reluctant to do 7.75-8 because it is a minimal change. My justification for this is that (1) key:refined continues to rise so that gap of 7 keys+4 ref to 8 keys continues to widen and (2) if the value of bills really is trending down, this is a more reasonable bump down before it can be resubmitted at 7.6-8 a few weeks from now.

Anyways, resubmitting:

No one here can deny that selling bill’s for 8 keys takes MUCH longer than it used to. Heck, selling painted bill’s for 8 keys takes a full day. For a currency item, that is clearly way too long to be a flat price. I have multiple links of bill’s for 7 keys – those are quicksells. But look at all the links for 7.8. Even they are taking a while to sell and there are lots of sellers at under 7.8. And one last thing to point out. There are only 12 pages (last 3 pages are very old) of unpainted bill's on outpost. There AREN'T that many unpainted bills. Compare this to keys, buds. With such a small sample size, the number of links I have provided below is very significant.

I’m going to give this case study to illustrate why before presenting all the other proof. This seller has sold LOADS of bill’s for 7.75 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671537 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11134814 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11099602 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11290634 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11340893 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11356284 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11377835- 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11378458 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11414596 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11439674 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11464004 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11545607 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11644604 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11644844 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11670461 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671537 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11137312 - 7.8 keys

As you can see, he has bought a ton of bills. For how much? 7.3 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671537

Note my timeline. He has bought all these bill’s in the last ~10 days. Frankly, with that kind of volume, I think 7.3 should be considered as part of the range. But I’ll still count that as a “quickbuyer.” His most recent trade has been up for 4 hours. Bill’s should not be unsold at a quicksell price for that long.

Other proof:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11652132 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11640322 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11632007 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11637045 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11471776 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11085214 - 7 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11658472 - 7.2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11674031 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11652775 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11566476 - 7.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11644019 - sold for 7.5 keys – and took a full 12 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11453552 - 7.5 keys - this is the guy from bp.tf classifieds who was selling for 7.5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11007853 - 7.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11642725 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10970781 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11642725 - 7.6 keys - reposted it twice before he actually sold it - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11642603

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11661847 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11182276 - 7.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11614212 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11132398 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11499257 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11590453 - 7.75 keys - autobump, unsold after 3 days

http://bazaar.tf/trade/254936 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11655911 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11629957 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11604524 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11654739 - 7.8 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11674197 - 7.85 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11674197 - 7.9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11497406 - 7.9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11530418 - 7.9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11639715 - 7.9 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11639715 - 7.95 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11636001 - 7.95 keys - white bills

Painted Bill’s for 8 keys (these aren't worthless paints - these are black, white, pink, lime, ts, gold paints):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11633587 - gold, unsold after a day with autobumping

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11656098

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11651060

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11632060

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11650294

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11639536

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11628411

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11628021

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11636591

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11653373

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11652957

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11668519

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11666107

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11665951

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11665502

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11664810

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11663608

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11668250

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11668097

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11675478

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671022

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11677475

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671751

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11670378

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11666319

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11666208

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11670290

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11668889

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11200255

AND LOTS MORE

If you think this is unfair, show me more proof of bill's selling at 8 keys than what I have here.

Finally, someone who posts good proofs for lowering the bill's price.

Damn, a Bills Suggestion. Gl Polar, prepare for the hoard.

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51b8adcaba2536722d000009 - lol

Let's see...

First guy buys for lower.

Obvious "UNpatient-Profit-er" is OBVIOUS. It's so obvious i want to kill myself.

Your second part of link : Sold Within Hour or two.

^It's like selling keys for 5.33

3rd Part of Links. People start not to care about paints at this moment.

And painted stuff is invalid.

Well. That took waaay Shorter time than i thought.

The thing is. Bill's Hat's been 8 keys for years. There are many bill's hats at market @8 Keys.

These people makes difference because they dont want to wait. See? they sold way too fast.

You copied and pasted from the previous suggestion. And the second part of my block of proof has at least 4 unsold at 7.75, one 3 days old with autobumping and one 2 days old. Please review the links and my notes in detail before commenting

"You copied and pasted from the previous suggestion."

I don't see any problem with it if the "proof" being provided is the same as last suggestion, sir.

And what you look at is the exceptions. %80 of them sold and you are defending %20.

Erm... keys cost over 5 refined. If you want to do decimals then it'd at least have to be 4/5 keys which is .8 keys and as brought up in previous 7.8-8 key suggestions: the difference between 7.8-8 keys and 8 keys flat that its not worth having change and that you're going too far in putting an exact range on something. Same reason why bud suggestions have never had a range accepted with .5 keys.

Fair points. And I did mull this over. But we have suggestions for .25 all the time. And 7.75 is closer to 7 keys + 4 ref than is 7.8. That unspoken rule of 1 ref = 0.2 keys no longer applies, imo, since keys are closer to 5.5 ref now than they are 5 ref. And for something like Bill's you have to make the initial change small because even a small change is important in currency.

Let's consider how slowly currency changes:

Keys by 1 scrap = 2% change (and these also change by 1 wep sometimes)

Buds by 0.5 keys = 2% change

My suggestion 7.875 keys vs 8 keys = 1.6% change - in-line with the changes in other forms of currency

Also: "My justification for this is that (1) key:refined continues to rise so that gap of 7 keys+4 ref to 8 keys continues to widen and (2) if the value of bills really is trending down, this is a more reasonable bump down before it can be resubmitted at 7.6-8 a few weeks from now."

Mental lapse in evaluating .75 keys. For some reason I was thinking you were using the value of keys at 4 refined to get .75 keys, but that would be 3 refined. I guess this is why you don't do math right after an English final :P

Hope it went well ;)

Blind Polar Bear proving he can get votes passed on any item (By providing great evidence). Now you just have to set up new votes for keys and buds.

Good evidence. Upvote.

Eh, thanks, but I'm betting that the votes are still not in my favor. Just the likes on the comments ;)

I don't think polar bear's ever failed a suggestion before. You can tell why.

I made the suggestion about 25 days ago because it seemed too easy to buy and sell Bills at 8 flat. Now I'm still seeing people successful at 8 keys, but it is certainly getting harder. I fear the crash of the Bills is coming, but it might just be that way.

As with all controversial suggestions like this, I'm choosing to remain neutral because it's in the hands of the mods now.

Unsolds at 8 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11477895 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11492313 6 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11603421 2 days. Stock at time of posting is 3. Watch if this changes.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11427534 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11680937 1 hour, brand new.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10623019 1 month

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11664467 18 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11587025 Looks like two adds, still unsold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11513592 5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11558860 4 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11682824 27 minutes

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11271421 2 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11670473 10 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11620094 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11415416 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11680808 1 hour, 1 add but got another

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11432079 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11636604 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11673974 6 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11407754 1 retracted 8 key offer

I highly suggest these trades be monitored. If more than half are closed/sold by the time this suggestion is voted on, then it should be closed. If they are not, then the suggestion should be accepted. Good work on your proof as always Polar.

Grazie. But I think that even if all of your links got sold over the course of 2-3 days (which is how long this suggestion will be up), the range should still be 7.75-8. Bills are currency, just like buds and keys. And high range of any of those items still sell within a day. And 8 keys is still in my range.

Oh my...another bills price change.. Staying Neutral on this

need evidence. This is a place for discussion and debate, not for trolling.

Three words. Quicksells and quickbuys.

I didn't even put a quickbuyer. Please review the links before commenting. And at least 10 links out of the ones I have put there are unsold after 2-3 days.

I know you didn't put down any quickbuyers, but I'm saying that people who buy under 8 keys are quickbuying. What proof do you have that these people aren't quickselling?

Quickselling and quickbuying speak to a buyers motivation, i think its actually on you to prove motivation if its not implicitly transparent. Eg, we assume people are normal buyers and sellers unless we have evidence that states otherwise.

Okay, I see what you mean.

Quicksales are solds in 1-2 hours

A lot of unsolds after 3 days.

Okay, thanks for clarifying that.

Nice proof

little change

upvote

Be wary, a little change on a promo is a big deal. Remember Buds? Dropped for a few weeks because of one price change and everyone spazzed out and sold them (including me). But yes, this is a very good amount and quality of proof, oopboat from me! :D

Like this range a lot better :)

I gave you the credit ;)

Good Proof. Upvote.

Please, people, I don't want to hear (*see) any comments that "Bills are 8 keys forever." Every item on the market is subject to change according to the laws of supply and demand. Most people who downvote this suggestion are doing it because of their personal bias. The proof is there. This hat needs a more accurate pricing range.

The community is like America.They don't like change, especially to something that has stayed the same for a long time.

That comment was unnecessary. :I

As yours :O Point is bill's hats need a drop and the community is too stubborn to let that slide.

8 keys still quicksell and good price, no need range.

All my trades, sold less than in 5 hours Bill's for 8 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11682199

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11650679

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11586449

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11491094

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11261559

Another sellers - quicksellers who wants to sell within 2 hours

Half of your links are painted. Please remove those so that readers will not be confused.

Painted bills worth same as unpainted for me, except white or black.

If you paint the red marker 100 dollar bill, it will not cost $ 110. Bill is $100 bank note in TF2 economy.

Yea, but that's not how prices are calculated here, so you need valid evidence. It is insufficient to just declare I don't count paint unless white or black.

What if people like red-marked dollar bills? Some people value painted bills more than unpainted ones and this suggestion is for unpainted bills.

So if we paint the same $100 bill black or white then can we sell that bill for $110?

Good proof. upvote

#downwithbills

It really took a few suggestions to get the right range and proofs lol. Upvote from my part.

well i bought one from rogue today, and i managed to sell it pretty quickly at 8.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671564 http://postimg.org/image/5oy1u1akl/

but like with any currency, im not gonna vote, just showing my experience (1st bill i owned, even though it was only for 20 minutes.

5 hours isn't really quickly for a bills. 3 months ago, 8 key bills sold within 5 min.

it was 20 min though, but i could be a bit lucky ofc.

Oh hmm. I was looking at your time stamps. It said you posted 15 hours ago and closed 10 hours ago.

for me it says 11 hours ago, 11 hours ago

http://postimg.org/image/wgosijdjh/

You're right. I'm sorry. More accurate prices mean less people can make profit. What was I thinking?

His evidence provided shows there is a need to do this.

this is good also there are TONS that have been unsold for 8 keys for ages

this has been long overdue. thanks for making the update. it's about time we face the fact that even though bill's are regarded as a 'currency' its value will still depreciate as keys become scarce/expensive.

Maybe get a more variety of 7.75 sellers?

Because all of the links in one of the sections in your proof is from the same person, and

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11614212 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11132398 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11499257 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11590453 - 7.75 keys - autobump, unsold after 3 days

http://bazaar.tf/trade/254936 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11655911 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11629957 - 7.75 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11604524 - 7.75 keys

So yeah, not that many DIFFERENT sellers at the proposed low end.

You missed my point entirely. That was the point. My whole section showed that one person has bought loads at well under 7.75 keys and he is selling at 7.75 keys for profit. In addition to that, I have 34 sellers at under 8.

Eh, but the links at 7 keys doesn't really do much since the proposed range is 7.75-8. I'm going to stay neutral.

It doesn't really do much? I'm doing 7.75-8 because people will flip out if I do 7-8 or 7.6-8. I have 50+ unpainted bills selling under 8 keys. Is that not enough proof? There are only 10 pages total of unpainted bills selling for keys on outpost. Compare that to buds or keys. 50 bills selling under 8 is massive volume. And I don't keep track of every single sale. These are all the ones that I easily found.

Hmmm it was a hard sale at 8 keys but when i dropped it to 7 keys and 4 ref it was sold within the hour :S

Ill stay neutral on this as 8 keys is hard and lower seems like a quick sale

Key range is 5.33-5.44. How long does it take to sell keys at the low end of the range? 30 seconds? And you took a whole hour to sell at 7.75.

Buds, keys, bills all are supposed to sell fast for the low end of the range. And if bill's are hard to sell at 8 keys flat, they should not be valued at 8 keys flat. Leaving them at 8 suggests that their value is the same now as it was a year ago. And that is simply not true. I used to sell bills at 8 keys in minutes. Now it takes a whole day which should not be the case for currency.

I agree on you point that bills should sell faster but with that being said back 2 weeks ago (before the mass number of bill suggestions) it was quite easy to sell for 8 keys flat (unpainted ofc) but it seems like alot of people are worried because of that and have avoided bills thinking that a crash will come.

It also shouldn't be so easy for quickbuyers to buy at under 7.5 keys. I understand if people don't use quickbuyers as proof if they get one or two bites every few weeks. But if a guy can buy 15 bills for 7.3 keys in 1 week, then the value needs to be factored in.

But the factor of the continual attack of suggestions to lower the bills needs to be factored in as well, especially when one of the was accepted for 1 day, making alot of people jump to quick sellers.

It's the same with earbuds, because everyone shit their pants and jumped ship, it crashed pretty hard.

I shall not vote on this as i dont think i can remove my bias but you do have a case and i wish you good luck :DDDD

But there is a reason for it. It wasn't all these suggestions that lowered the value of buds or bills. Key values skyrocketed from 1.20 to 1.80 because valve cracked down on carders, halloween/christmas led to scarcity, and a few other factors outlined multiple times before. But buds and bills had no reason to change in their intrinsic value. Buds should not have shot up from 34-40 usd and bills from 13-20. Their value would logically trend down with respect to keys. Buds did as expected, but people were too stubborn on bills to let that happen. It has gradually corrected itself. Bills should really be 6-7 keys for full compensation, but I doubt people will let it go that low.

Yea, i dunno if people will ever see the connection to the money. I would say that there is some independent key value because of the layers of abstraction, but the evidence you show is pretty clear.

Just bought 1 with 8 keys lol.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11688862

I gave you 10 links that are still active under 8 keys. Not sure why you paid more.

I looked most weren't online DDDD:

should have asked me :P

Bill's go down, bill's go up, bill's go down. Never ending routine. Upvote from me though

Holy shit, SO many people want the bill's price to drop just by 1 ref! Please stop already, even if you do score a victory on this one, it doesn't mean that the market will be affected much. Besides. Look at your evidence. 7.5-8 keys range sellers are all from the exact same person.So i will not dismiss it as very convincing evidence, either.Please. Bill's is the only STABLE currency out there.In my opinion, i think this price is fair enough. Especially with not-so-convincing proof, i am downvoting.

You obviously did not read anything I said or actually look at my links. I have 34 different sellers from 7-8 keys in the last week.

ConVict | blind polar bear - stop stalking me :P (>‿◠)✌

On a serious note mate, even if this suggestion passes, 1-2 days later someone would post another suggestion suggesting bills to be back up to 8 keys flat. The moderators will then accept it because the ✔ would read - "The suggestion has reached it maximum up vote limit, however you are free to down-vote" :P.

You are now famous, lol. How many bill's have you bought at 7.3 keys in the last week?

14-15 I think.

It won't happen again (the suggestion right back to 8 keys). I will be more vigilant and will provide counterproof like I did here - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51b93d2eba2536904700002d

Yeah but again, as the community expressed above, its most of the time just me selling it for 7.75, you reckon the mods will buy it every-time?

I have 34 sellers not named Rogue. Half of them are selling even less than you. I think the price of Bill's should actually be 7.6-8 as indicated here: http://trade.tf/price/126/6

This is the same way I found all your trades.

That link shows the quantity too? How many were traded etc etc?

There is a link above the graph for "fair deals" and "found for sale." Unfortunately, the majority of bill's are painted and I do not believe the website differentiates (uses only the unpainted ones to factor the price). It also doesn't show quantity the way tf2finance does.

Trade.tf also includes item sales though.

Good prove,up vote :)

I'm sure if this get's accepted, someone will make another suggestion with 8 keys

And I will give the same counterproof I gave here: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51b93d2eba2536904700002d

It won't happen again, not on my watch. Unless bills for some reason actually go back up to 8 keys.

This is silly logic. If someones just going to countersuggest they should put in the effort to find the counterproof now. And I believe Polar bear, he will prolly ruthlessly provide counterevidence.

Honestly, Polar, you have solid, proof. I've checked every single link and they are legit (with maybe 1 or 2 exceptions?) Not too sure, out of it since exams screwed me over. What I would like to say is that people hate changing currency for the bills because most of us are used to the 8 keys. It's "familiar" to us and most of us just down is balls hard when we can W/O LOOKING AT EVIDENCE. Just my two cents. Good luck dude, you've a brave soul to deal with this shit.

Lots of great proofs, and you did one hell of a job articulating the reasoning behind this. You have yet another upvote :3

I already know where this suggestion is going, making a suggestion just for lowering .25 of keys is unnecessary, I know this, this whole conversion of decimal keys to metal is then an excuse to make another change, seen that alot, if a hat is 1.8 keys then people will say "they are being sold at 1 key 4 refined but that's just 1.75 keys because 1.80 keys is 1 key 4 refined 2 scraps and 1 weapon" just because sellers round they start making successive suggestions to keep lowering more and more certain item. Because of this, and that getting a Bill's at less tan 8 keys is not as easy as you want us to believe, Downvote