This price is old so I'm refreshing. I'm pricing items using backpack.tf's current price for them.

Lets get the trades with no good offers out of the way first:

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11623591[/url] - Only lowball and joke offers at the moment, none over a bud

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11574567[/url] - Blank, 4 days old

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11522069[/url] - no offers, his last trade was [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11262250[/url] and recieved only low offers, a blizz chieftan's challenge (bp.tf price ~1.2 buds)

Now some trades with better offers:

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10674527[/url] - In the last month, it has received offers of:

- A max's head

- A purple energy stout shako (old bp.tf price, but ~2.3 buds)

- An orbiting fire voodoo juju (bp.tf price ~2 buds)

- Vivid plasma sober stuntman (old bp.tf price, but ~1.2 buds)

- 2 pure

- SF Scatter + SF bat (no idea why he didn't take it, bp.tf total price ~3.7 buds)

- Steaming hat with no name + 20 keys (bp.tf total price ~1.8 buds)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9413123[/url] - Not going to include offers over a month old, in the last month has received offers of:

- Stormy cosa nostra (bp.tf price ~1.8 buds)

- Steaming anger (bp.tf price ~1.8 buds)

- Orbiting fire voodoo juju (bp.tf price ~2 buds)

- Vivid plasma sober stuntman (old bp.tf price, but ~1.2 buds)

- SF Scatter + SF bat (bp.tf total price ~3.7 buds)

- Steaming human cannonball (bp.tf price ~1.6 buds)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11280323[/url] In the 2 weeks it's been up, has received offers of:

- Smoking cowl + sweets (bp.tf price ~1.3 + ??)

- 1 bud + 12 keys + service medal #7550 (bp.tf total price ~1.9 buds)

- Steaming Juju +sweets (bp.tf price ~1.5 + ??)

- Steaming Hat With No Name + 20 keys (bp.tf total price ~1.8 buds)

- Tf Logo Tin Topi (unpriced, but most likely quite low)

- 1 bud and 15 keys

The previous sales I have been able to find

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9554013[/url] - 2 months ago, I don't know what it went for but he wanted 2

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7541066[/url] - Although the offer is hidden, this hat most likely sold around 3 months ago for a strange gunslinger and a bubbling hat with no name (total bp.tf price ~2.3)

Both of them are listed here [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8953748[/url] and as you can see, their history shows that they were in the backpack of the current owner of the stormy hwnn immediately before they went into panzer!'s backpack.

In conclusion

The lowest reasonable offer, and quite common, was 1.8 buds. The highest realistic offer (I believe the SF Scatter + SF bat offer was an outlier) was 2.3, and a sale very possibly occurred at this price.

For these reasons, it seems fair to make the price range 1.8-2.3 buds, giving it a mid point of just over 2 buds, which seems to sit around the majority of the offers.