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3 trades on OP, let's keep this short and sweet.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11706778 1 weapon.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11725391 1 weapon.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11525342 Offer of a weapon, to be determined if it goes through.
There we have it. 2/3 of all sellers on OP are selling it for a weapon, and the last one, who doesn't have a set price, has an offer of 1 weapon. Sound good? Good. I'm out.
The last one is level 69 so there might be an element of "Selling for higher because 69 herdy durrh" but overall I'm good with this proof. Up vote.
Sadly he is right. Special levels aren't really valid proof. But for Halloween items maybe the mods will let it slide.
Uptang.
There is also not a lot of people selling this. I could barely find one on outpost. None on classified and that's just the craftable version. No uncrafts on outpost that I can find. It seems that the demand and supply is pretty poor. I think the OP proof is the 'only' thing we have to judge this items price. So as you said "the mods will let it slide".