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ACTUAL SALES
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11221609 - sold for vivid batters ~2 (with new suggestion)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11183322 - sold for 2 pure - http://backpack.tf/id/76561198060217981?time=1369551600
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11235508 - sold for 2.5 pure
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11073295 - unclear what it sold for. offered 2 in items
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10988747 - unclear what it sold for. offered 2 pure, and 2.5 (GE dixie + 1)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11073295 sold it for a smoking tree which with overpay is ~1.3 buds o
Since you posted it, I actually looked. He didn't sell it 1:1 for a smoking tree. A lime EA and lime digit divulger were part of the sweets. Possibly more.
Those items were gotten from people besides the person he got the tree from, and even if there were sweets its quite a bit below your range
Dude. Did you actually look at the bp history:
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198061687903?time=1369206000
Trade was OF tree, not even a smoking tree. + black tossle + lime EA?
Original suggestion on OF tree was 1.6-2. So 1.6 + ~0.3 as sweets = ~1.9.
He got the smoking tree later.
In any case, not gonna argue the point any more. 2 pure is a quicksell for this. Gets offered that immediately. Any trade under that would just be anomalous since it has had multiple sales / offers at 2.5.