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[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11110843[/url] - B/O of 2 buds, unsold for 3 weeks. Only 1 offer - Blizz Sam (1.4-1.6 buds)
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11448742[/url] - Only interested in offers 2 buds and above, unsold for a week. Only 1 offer - Smoking Dead Cone, free downgrade and a massive lowball.
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11305442[/url] - B/O of 2.2 buds, not a single offer in 2 weeks.
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10264557[/url] - B/O of 2 buds 8 keys, unsold in a month. Very few offers, highest of which being Blizz Front Runner and sweets (1.4-1.7 + sweets)
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11638705[/url] - B/O of 2 buds, unsold in 4 days. Not a single offer.
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11491601[/url] - No price, not a single offer in a week.
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10952752[/url] - Only 2 offers in 2 weeks, Blizz Sam (price above) and 14 keys (lowball).
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11753102[/url] - Selling for 'only' 2 buds, unsold for 12 hours. No offers.
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11169675[/url] - 2 offers in 2 weeks, highest being Blizz Engie Cap + Smoking Bombing + 8 keys (41-45 keys, ~1.6-1.8 buds)
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10894977[/url] - Probably sold for SF Bat + Bill's, ~1.33 buds (see [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11116136[/url])
Why lower beyond 2? Lowest B/Os are two, and only proof of sale seems way low and isn't in your range. I understand the unlikelihood of actually selling at 2, but without sales I don't think we should set the range based on offers.
You just said it yourself. Nobody's ever going to sell this for 2 buds, and the most recent sale is at 1.33!