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I just went through every trade on outpost.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11818484 4.00
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11772595 4.22 sold to me http://i.imgur.com/myfVXtY.png
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11534809 4.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11737579 4.33
http://i.imgur.com/0TNRw2i.png 3 in classifieds for 4.33, 1 for 4.44
Unsold for current bp.tf price (they don't give a b/o, only bp.tf price):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11514946
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11794428
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10989345
Unsold for above 4.33:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11442328 .66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11809523 .66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11642380 .66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11624434 .55
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11760154 .55
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11358951 .44
I am treating the 4.22 and 4.00 as outliers due to the 4.00 being offline and the the 4.22 being the only one.
Love how your fourth link on the unsold specifically says "Please don't use this trade as 'evidence' of spreadsheet prices"
That's a pretty good amount of proof. Genuines are pretty hard to sell for the prices chosen by the community. Upvoting :)
Nice proof. Upgoats