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Sorry for such a large range, I will refine it as more sales happen.
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11776291 B/O of 4 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11848514 B/O of 3 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11810867 Offer of 3 buds pure (retracted) and a memory leak Pencil Pusher.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11863676 B/O of 3 buds with a strange offer that I couldn't understand. :P
The B/O's don't really help, you need proof of sales
Link 1 sold for Orb. Fire Hustler's Hallmark (1.4 buds with overpay) and then to another guy for Blizzard El Jefe (2.1 buds with overpay).
Link 2 sold for Green Energy Bonk Helm (2.1 buds with overpay) + 1 bud = 3.1 buds.
Link 3 sold for 1 buds (possibly more). Outlier.
Link 4 is related to link 1.
2.1-3.1 buds would be a possible price here. You can also consider the 3.1 bud sale an outlier and put it at 1.4-2.1.
1.4-2.1
I'm not done yet, although that range seems closer than current one.
Agree with KALINKA 2.1-3.1 - would be a possible price here ,1-1.4-outlier , but 2-3 -not bad -->UP+
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11904695 - BO 2.5 buds, new trade
I think both the 1 bud and the 3 bud sales are outliers. Also, the person who offered 3 buds pure had some weird conditions (69 seconds, really?) and doesn't have that many buds anyway. I don't think the high price should be over 3 buds.