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Needs a price update, a few of the links I'm using are outdated but still better than the current price.
SALES.
20 keys (my old handle) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11397353
19 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9684304
18 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9858590 - added for b/o, also multiple offers of 17 pure. But he sold for a bubbling tam o’shanter? Unclear if sweets were added.
15.5 keys (17 in unusuals) - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9910815 - flies dead cone
Declined 18 keys pure
15 keys (16 in items) - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10111386 - s pan + pink all father
you need more proof and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11497905 here someone is selling a team spirit painted one for 18 keys. So the current range is still better than your suggested one
He's rejecting 16 keys like crazy, and while he may be selling for the middle range, this hat can definitely sell for 20.