Updating a 4 month old price. Just trying to get my feet wet here, this will be my first suggestion. Constructive criticism and/or advice will be appreciated.

Went through all the smoking lucky shots on outpost, just to cover all bases, so some trades I linked aren't as relevant as others.

Trade #1: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11717325[/url] - 1 week, B/O 1 bud + 18 keys (~1.75 buds)

No solid offers yet

Trade #2: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11915229[/url] - 12 hours, B/O 2 buds, no offers

Trade #3: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11446404[/url] - 2 weeks, B/O 40 keys(~1.66 buds), but willing to do 36 keys(~1.5 buds), some offers, 2 somewhat notable offers here:

32 keys(~1.33 buds)

1 bud + 5 keys (~1.21 buds)

Trade #4: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11834666[/url] - 3 days, B/O 2 buds, no offers on the lucky yet

Trade #5: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11310043[/url] - 3 weeks, B/O 2 buds, has offer of:

Steaming Voodoo + 6 keys(~1.6 buds w/U. overpay), was considering taking it if another deal didn't go through, appears to not have taken this offer though

32 keys (~1.33 buds)

Trade #6: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11927484[/url] - 3 hours, no B/O, no notable offers, so useless for this suggestion

Trade #7: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11743015[/url] - 6 days, no B/O, possible offer?:

Smoking Fez (for any listed hat?), would be ~1.2 buds w/U. overpay

Trade #8: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11726663[/url] - 6 days, no B/O, no offers on the lucky (irrelevant to this suggestion)

Trade #9: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11693937[/url] - 1 week, B/O 2 buds, no notable offers

Trade #10 [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11902318[/url] - 10 hours, B/O 2 buds, no offers

Trade #11: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11659423[/url] - 1 week, B/O 1.9 buds, offered:

1 bud + V. Luger (~1.33 buds), declined by trade owner, but claims he bought one for that price, verified he has one by checking his BP, he bought this one: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11710310 (also note that seller was willing to do 40 USD ~1 bud, though evidently he sold for more to rye)

So overall, many have their B/O set at 2 or just under 2, and seems to me that most of the 2 bud B/O'ers get little or no attention. Reasonable offers seem to come in mostly at 1.2-1.3. However, 1 was offered ~1.6, and a few had their B/O around this price as well, and I don't want to make the value drop too significantly, which is why I'm choosing the range 1.3-1.6.

Again, helpful criticism is welcomed (and probably expected) since this is my first suggestion, hopefully this works.

Looks like buds dropping has changed my range, hopefully this doesn't affect the validity of my proof, since all of it comes from before this drop.

Adding some more data per Esper's recommendation.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11390392 - B/O 1.6 buds, offers of:

N&B Jefe + ~0.4 in sweets (~1.35 buds w/U. overpay)

S. Kritz(~1.45 buds)

30 keys (1.25 buds)

Steaming Juju (~1.45 buds w/U. overpay), looks to be the same guy who made the offer in Trade #5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11248017 - "no less than 2", offer of:

Searing Drill w/chromatic (~1.8 w/U. overpay)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11587772 - selling for 1.5, not sure if he got his price or not, but he sold it

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11910129 - selling for 1 bud + 16 keys (~1.625), again, not sure if he got his price but he sold it one way or another

That's pretty much all the evidence I could find in old recent trades. Again, keep in mind these offers/sales were before the bud drop today when they were still 24 keys and my range was 1.3-1.6