Price Suggestion
~22 keys
bh
Unusual Janissary Ketche Green Black Hole
114 votes up
25 votes down
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Ok, so I'm resubmitting my price suggestion so that the price range can be a bit more accurate.


I'll include all sales and current trades that I can find.


#1 (sold trade) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11777215 3.5 bud b/o

Offers of:

Fireproof Diary + 2 keys ~ 1.6

Memory Leak Big Country - No price set

Opened new trade http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11832637 3.5 bud b/o still

Offers of:

Smoking Juju ~1.8 <<<< high end

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11707815 - Trade where he sold it.

Scroll down and you'll see that he sold the ketche + a blizz samur-eye (~1.5) for 3 buds pure. That puts the ketche at around 1.5.


#2 (sold trade) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11633527 2 pure b/o

Offers of:

Nuts n Bolts Nickel

S. F. Sniper (24), V. Luger (8), V. Mask (4), Filamental (1), G. Menpo (1.33 ref), 25 ref, 3 games. - 1 Bud + 17 or so in items w/ overpay

Bud + 5 keys

Bud + 10 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11852726 - the important trade. He sold the ketche + 1 bud + 12 keys (I actually didn't know about the +12 keys, if you need evidence look at my closed price suggestion). That puts the ketche at an astonishing 24-28 keys (outlier, not in range).


#3 (sold trade)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11919789 - Estelle Getty's comment. He sold it for 1.5 buds pure.


#4 (sold trade)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11753387

He accepted a stormy milkman (~1.4)

Actually sold for stormy snaggle (~1.7) <<< low end.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Current Trades

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11757855 No b/o, 1 week old

Offers of:

Memory Leak Big Country - no price set

Harvest Moon Ketche he adds 1 bud - puts ketche at ~1.5


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11921123 - 3 pure b/o, 2 days old

No offers


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11883961 - no b/o, 3 days old

Offer of:

Stormy Tippler's ~ 1.1


There's very little demand for this item. No trades are receiving offers of even 2 buds in pure or items. 1 has sold for ~1.1 buds, 2 have sold for 1.5 and another for 1.7. I'd prefer to use 1.5 as the low end but, those might be considered "quicksells". This range puts it around energy, misty skull, and hearts which is pretty optimal. Hopefully this is more accurate, if it's not, I'll do it again.


    1-st trade - quicksell

    2-nd trade - quickesell

    3-rd trade - quicksell

    4-th trade - Fine

    5-th trade - offers don't matter if the unusual is not 3 months old

    6-th trade - ...

    7-th trade - offers don't matter if the unusual is not 3 months old


    Counter proof from last month or so :


    http://i.imgur.com/lKgBD65.png

    Bought for 2.5 buds


    http://i.imgur.com/vz4yqJ5.png

    Sold for 2 buds + 11 keys + 18 ref


    The quicksell trade have an offer of 2.5 buds

    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10881584


    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10958096 -

    Orb. Fire Charmer's + Smoking Hermes (3 buds)


      "Counter proof from last month or so"....usable? Nope.

      Also, didn't use the quicksells for my range even though, I probably should have.

        so 1 month+ ago when hype was fresh they sold for 2-2.5


        But the latest 4 sales after the hype is gone all the sales were all lower.


        That is how I see it


          I still accept some of them where quicksells but OK ...

      This many trades can't be ignored, and a significant drop within a month isn't a surprise when coming away from new effects. A more conservative drop would have been better overall, but in the end this is a better price than current.