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Sellers
5 on outpost, none on bazaar. On outpost, the same hat exists on 2 posts because the owner hasn't yet closed the trade. Also, 2 of these are sold as a set.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12051143 selling for 1.5 buds, says he has a buyer at that price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11283690 has had an offer of 30 keys, which was offered ~9 hours ago. Buds are 23-24 keys, so thats about 1.2-1.3 buds. Also got an offer of a blizzardy fro, which is valued at 1.1-1.4 buds (slightly higher, but let's say 1.2 buds).
Buyers
The usual lowballers, except for someone who is looking to upgrade. I'm gonna add him to the list of proof once he gives me his price. Also someone who is offering one bud, but hasnt had any reactions.
EDIT: the guy who is looking for an upgrade ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11939932 ) is saying this:
trenvl: hi
<MN A> - Assassin.: Hey
trenvl: i saw you're looking to upgrade your defiant spartan, correct?
<MN A> - Assassin.: ye
trenvl: well, im making a suggestion on backpack.tf. could you be so kind to tell me what you would give to upgrade for a circling tf logo one?
<MN A> - Assassin.: Tf logo..
<MN A> - Assassin.: Nice
<MN A> - Assassin.: I want that
trenvl: sure, but what would you give for an upgrade?
<MN A> - Assassin.: Idk...
<MN A> - Assassin.: well
<MN A> - Assassin.: on bp.tf it says steaming is 1-1.4
<MN A> - Assassin.: mine
<MN A> - Assassin.: and yours
<MN A> - Assassin.: is 1.1-1.3
<MN A> - Assassin.: the middle of them are 1.2
<MN A> - Assassin.: But cant trust bp.tf
<MN A> - Assassin.: Not 100%
trenvl: so, for an upgrade you wouldn't give anything? not even sweets?
<MN A> - Assassin.: I would.
<MN A> - Assassin.: Because that hat is gold.
trenvl: so, what would you add?
<MN A> - Assassin.: Lemme think
trenvl: sure
<MN A> - Assassin.: 1 ref 1 scrap? :P
<MN A> - Assassin.: I dont have so much
trenvl: you have some keys right?
<MN A> - Assassin.: 2 right now
<MN A> - Assassin.: can add 1 if you really want
trenvl: ok, thanks for the info :)
So basically, he values TF logo a bit higher than the steaming one, although they have the same middle price.
No need for a change. Offers in current range, and the guy "claims" to have a buyer at 1.5. No proof of that. Current range is fine.
First link sold for 1.5, as seen in its trade.
Accepting.