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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11842018
1 sold for 4 buds + max head (~6 buds)
Notable offers:
Sunbeams Cowl ~ 5 buds ish
Electrostatic Hotdogger (have a C/O of $200 ~ 5 buds)
Vivid Plasma Killer's Kabuto + 1 bud (~ 5 buds)
A few tips
1. Max head (unless lv 1/7) is 2.2 +4 so high end should be 6.2
2. Hot dogger had a c/o of $160-200 if you checked his trades, which would be a middle of $180 or 4.5
3. Account for overpay, the cowl is 5 but unusual overpay do multiply by .9 (good calculator for overpay) so it would be 4.5 on the cowl and likewise on the kabuto 4*.9=3.6 +1=4.6. Therefore a more appropriate range would be 4.5-6.2 Try to be exact with decimals on high value items, it makes a big difference
4. Do you/the current seller have any proof of the other one selling for the max+4? I'm not saying it didn't, but ask the seller for proof that he sold the other one for that much.
I wouldn't count any max as 2.2 buds. Most ppl will just pass them off as 2 buds flat due to even non lvl 1/7 have the potential of being duped.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11842018 is currently the only trade selling the lantern tossle, and he already sold one for approx. 6 buds, logically, what are the chances that he'll accept anything less than 5 buds? Which is why I didn't set the lower end below 5 buds, as all of the offers are being rejected by him even though it was listed as his C/O. A range of 4.5-6.2 buds would be too big and inaccurate on the lower end anyway, seeing that it'll be impossible but this below 5 buds atm. Depending on the seller, unusual overpay might not take place sometimes, which is why using the median itself is also a legit way of determining a price.
Also, I doubt he would lie about what he sold the first lantern tossle for. And I've checked his bp earlier before i posted.
Unusual overpay should always be accounted for, also why wouldn't you count a max at 2.2? You can checked duped on tf2items and there's tons of buyers on op for 2 bud max heads, pretty much a quick sell there, also, it's ok for ranges to be big as long as its not completely ridiculous, 4.5-6.2 is only a 1.7 range, I recently passed a 7.9-11.1 range 3.2 bud range