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2 month old price. A lot has changed since then.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11949466 - Eerie Orbiting Fire Geisha Boy (1.6 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11667350 - Buds + Nuts and Bolts Backwards Ballcap (1.7 buds) (SOLD)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11976148 - Blizzardy Storm Fed Fighting Fedora (1.4 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11667350 - Sulfurous Western Wear (Not sure how much this is worth. Probably a lot more than the range for this. But an offer is an offer.)
you forgot to calculate overpay (not with the ballcap, it makes 1.76 buds with overpay)
geisha boy makes 1.4 after overpay
the blizzardy storm fed fedora is 1.2 buds after overpay
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11976148 - looks it actually sold for 1 bud, maybe some sweet: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440/1761528220/143/6
Only one piece of support for high end, counterproof provided showing that it also sells for less than suggested. A more thorough analysis of sales is needed here to determine where the price range should fall.
Closing for insufficient evidence.